Netanyahu so far weathers US pressure in ‘last chance’ Gaza cease-fire talks

- Andrew Parasiliti , Week in Review

Cairo talks focus on Philadelphi Corridor?

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in Israel on August 19, said Israeli Prime Minister Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to a "bridging proposal" to address the remaining sticking points over a Gaza cease-fire and hostage exchange, putting the burden on Hamas.?

Netanyahu and his people were more circumspect than Blinken on whether the PM may be closer to a deal. Three days later, speaking by phone, US President Joe Biden supposedly got the Israeli PM to agree to show some flexibility on Israel’s demand for a troop presence along the Philadelphi Corridor, Gaza’s southern border with Egypt — a sticking point in the negotiations.?

The combination of another Blinken visit, mixed messages from Netanyahu and Biden talking "tough" to Netanyahu over the phone has a familiar ring.?

As Ben Caspit reports, “Whenever reports emerge of such flexibility, Netanyahu’s office is quick to disavow them.”?In other words, according to Caspit, Bibi’s "double game" continues.?

Negotiators convene in Cairo for another round of talks Sunday, and things might be different, but not necessarily or primarily because of US pressure, which Netanyahu has, until now, been able to shrug off.? ?

For Netanyahu, despite some manageable friction with Biden, he has all he needs from the United States and more. The Biden administration has not threatened to cut off support for Israel’s military operations. The administration has put a holdup over the export of 2,000-pound bombs, but as Caspit reports the pause might be removed in short order.?The United States has also assured Netanyahu that it has Israel’s back in the event of an escalation with Iran and Hezbollah.? ?

US deterrence keeps the peace?

The show of US resolve gives Netanyahu space in the regional theater. A senior Israeli military source told Caspit that Israel is within "touching distance" of an Israeli attack in Lebanon.? ?

Israel’s options, including preparations for a possible escalation, are strengthened by the heightened US firepower in the region.??

Iran, and by extension Hezbollah, at least for now appears deterred by US forces, in parallel with an intensive diplomacy to give cease-fire talks — which Tehran has supported — a chance.?A cease-fire deal has morphed into a likely off-ramp for Iran and Hezbollah. They don’t seem to want the fight.?We are into the fourth week since they vowed retaliation for the Israeli killing via airstrike of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut on July 30, and the assassination of Hamas political bureau chairman Ismail Haniyeh the next day in Tehran, reportedly via a bomb planted in his guest quarters while he was in the capital for the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian.??

'Cautious assessment' of a deal?

The decisive pressure on Netanyahu to buck a cease-fire deal has come from within.?His premiership depends on the support of radical right parties, which have threatened to withdraw from his coalition if he cuts the wrong deal with Hamas.?There is no deal, in Bibi’s assessment, if it means he is out of office.?Standing up to US pressure is a winner for Netanyahu with his right flank.

But there are signs of an opening, as Caspit reported from Israel earlier this week: “Faced with public outcry over Oct. 7, Netanyahu has been working hard to keep his coalition intact, giving in to various demands by his hard-line partners and balking at a deal with Hamas that would make them go through with their threatened walkout. Nonetheless, a cautious assessment emerging in recent days suggests Netanyahu may be able to make a deal with Hamas without risking his government. Israeli political sources believe that National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, the government's extreme right-wing benchmark, may indeed quit the government in the event concessions to Hamas are made but will not act to topple it and will eventually return.”?

The other catch is that Ben-Gvir and his far-right coalition cohort, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, have nowhere else to go.?Both are living large as ministers in the present government.?If they bring down Netanyahu, there would likely be months of elections and coalition building, with Netanyahu as interim PM.?Likely, their best and only bet for a return to power would be again to ally with Bibi.?And Netanyahu could then, if so inclined, pivot to the center, leaving them behind, especially if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the US presidential election in November.?

Eyes on November?

Elizabeth Hagedorn reports here on the divisions over Gaza at the Democrat National Convention in Chicago last week, and Jared Szuba breaks down Harris’ remarks on Israel, Gaza and the Middle East in her speech accepting the party’s nomination for president.?

Israel’s military campaign in Gaza has led to the killing of 40,000 people, the majority of them women and children, and has displaced most of the enclave’s 2.2 million people. Hamas' Oct. 7 attack left some 1,200 people dead in southern Israel, with the militants taking another 250 hostages.??

The US election weighs heavily in Netanyahu’s calculation.?He prefers former President Donald Trump but has to consider the possibility of a Harris presidency.?For that reason, even if he agrees to a cease-fire and hostage exchange, expect the details to be dragged out until after November 5, 2024, when he can present a broader deal, and perhaps Israel-Saudi normalization, to whoever wins the US presidency.? ??