The Netanyahu Conundrum ....
Dr. T.X. Montenegro
Ph.D., M.A.A.S., M.A., B.A., A.A. | OSAC | USBTA | OSINT | Hostile Environment Penetration | Asian & African Studies | Counter-Terrorism & Counter-Intel | SALWs | ITAR Consultant
#Netanyahu is going to need to drastically amp up his military campaign to prolong remaining in the catbird seat, as his power-posse is self-cannibalizing.
To bring things into perspective, at the present time:
1) Israeli War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz's centrist party just proposed to dissolve parliament
2) Yair #Golan, the chair of #Israel's Labor Party is calling for mass civil disobedience across Israel (including serving in the #IDF) until the government "changes"
3) #ShinBet Chief Ronen Barr has refused requests to increase surveillance on Anti-Netanyahu protestors
4) Even as National Security Minister Ben Gvir is questionably attempting to terminate Israel Police Chief Kobi Shabtai's service prematurely, he has given #Bibi the ultimatum to create a feasible strategy to essentially rewrite the political and territorial landscape of the ME - or he will resign and Netanyahu's "fall from grace" will begin.
The Israeli government is deteriorating and collapsing as we speak. Bibi has a few options left. Quite a few. All one has to do is "work their way north" through the West Bank, Golan Heights, #Syria and #Lebanon.
The West Bank has been rife with gradually-increasing violence as the settlers go on rampages burning homes and vehicles even as claims have surfaced over the past few days that #Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (#PIJ) supporters from the West Bank participated in the October 7 tragedy, which was inevitably exacerbated by the #IDF exercising the Hannibal Directive (as echoed by Ha'aretz today).
The other flash-point that we must really keep our eyes on is the Al Aqsa mosque - for this is a "Global Islamic Trigger Point" and I would not put it past extremists or dark government factions to incite violence via attempted arson, destruction or damage to the mosque.
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That being said Netanyahu needs to rapidly expand the conflict past Rafah and into other areas - especially as he hopes to drag the US into this to an even greater extent - for the real "cherry on Bibi's cupcake" is Iran. That is his Holy Grail and heavily-internalized nemesis.
Prediction: I would assume that the violence in the West Bank will increase as Netanyahu attempts to goad Iran into action by going after its proxies and assets in Syria and Lebanon - if the government does not disintegrate beforehand.
Given Bibi's track record, tunnel vision and narcissism I would not be surprised to see another rabbit or two pop out of his hat before a final good-bye.
For the record: This conflict did not begin on October 7th. It did not "suddenly flare up" in an "unprecedented fashion." It has been going on for decades.
Between 1947 and 1949, out of 1.9 million #Palestinians (#Christians, #Muslims, #Druze and #Jews), 750,000 were turned into #refugees and removed from the land their families had lived on for centuries.
Subsequent to 1949 "Jewish" forces controlled at least 78 percent of historic Palestine, having ethnically cleansed approximately 530 villages in addition to killing 15,000 Palestinians during more than 70 massacres.
In any case, Netanyahu and crew have pushed this conflict so far that ironically - one of the most extreme right governments in Israel's history - if not the most extreme - will ultimately be responsible for the inevitable establishment of a Palestinian State.