Net Zero: Short-Term Decisions For a Non-Existent Future

On the same day, the UN? warned that ‘humanity has opened the gates of hell’ by letting the climate crisis worsen. Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak rolled back on Net Zero pledges, sparking, for the second time in as many months, anger and confusion.

Political Shifts and Climate Commitments

The Prime Minister announced he is delaying the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in the UK from 2030 to 2035, scrapping plans to force landlords to upgrade the energy efficiency of properties and relaxing the gas boiler phase-out by introducing exceptions and caveats to its implementation.

The Environment and Climate Change Committee, based in The House of Lords,? responded to the prime minister’s commitments with increased criticism, highlighting the failure to commit to expanding the role of both heat pumps and electric vehicles, despite recent positivity, particularly surrounding heat pumps.?

Committee Chair Baroness Baroness Parminter said the proposals raised serious questions about the government’s ability to meet its 2050 net zero carbon legal targets.

She said;

“Given a third of all emission reductions required by 2035 need to come from individuals and households adopting new technologies, choosing low-carbon products or services, and reducing carbon-intensive consumption, it is hard to see how our legally-binding carbon targets will now be met.”

Public Opinion and Political Strategy

A few months ago, an article titled - ‘Net Zero’s Darkest Day’ showcased the level of mounting criticism - lamenting the Prime Minster’s decision to grant hundreds of new oil and gas exploration licenses in the North Sea, against all credible climate science. That ‘darkest day’ now, seems too premature.?

These policy changes are not only going to hinder the process towards net zero, a target the PM says is ‘on track’ but will affect the pockets of the public ending up costing British households almost ￡8bn in higher bills over the next decade. If gas prices spike again and the UK continues reliance on expensive imports, the cost to the economy could be an extra ￡150bn over 10 years.

The Path Forward for Net Zero

According to current predictions, gas prices will remain at 2-3 times pre-energy crisis levels for the rest of the decade.

The move has been seen as politically motivated due to the unexpected success the Conservative party had at the recent Uxbridge by-election.

With the Conservatives deeply unpopular and flagging in nationwide polls, their campaigning and the subsequent victory hinged on latching on to the equally unpopular anti-ULEZ expansion. A success politically, but questions remain on the long-term ambitions of the new strategy.

An exclusive poll conducted by FindOutNow for Channel 4 News revealed more than 40% of people would be less likely to vote Conservative in the next general election if the government does not stick to its commitments on climate change.

Across the UK, homes have about 22 million boilers that burn fossil fuels and domestic heating contributes around 14% of the UK's carbon emissions.?

The Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS), which allows people grants for money off a heat pump has received an expected boost, increasing by 50% to ￡7,500. But with the moving goalposts, it fails to capture the imagination of a massive jump in take-up, despite the recent findings that 85% of users are satisfied, even without total insulation.?

With one hand, a positive and another a negative as plans to force landlords to upgrade the energy efficiency of properties were scrapped.?

The old policy stated from 2025, new tenancies would only be possible on properties with an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) of C or higher - from 2028, this would apply to existing tenancies as well. This was cut loose due to ‘cost of living’ challenges. This poses the question if domestic homes were of sufficient efficiency - it would actually have the opposite effect and allow consumers to use less energy, and spend less.

The government has earmarked it now from 2035.?

The way heat pump efficiency is measured is by the device’s coefficient of performance (COP). This is calculated by the amount of input compared to the amount of output. For example, if a heat pump uses one kW of electricity to produce four kW of heat, the CoP is four.

The higher the CoP, the more efficient the heat pump is. Heat Pumps regularly can exceed 300% efficiency in ideal conditions, whereas combustion boilers will never exceed 98%.?

Scrapping a policy over ‘cost’ when over time it proves beneficial, screams politically motivated or a short-term goal for a non-existent future.?

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) recently said the government’s climate progress is “worryingly slow” and risked losing its status as a key player on the world stage for climate change efforts. September was proving to be a key moment in the UK's net zero plans.?

The government has launched the ￡1 billion drive to help those most in need heat their home expanding the scope from the previous Energy Company Obligation (ECO) scheme which was only available to those who receive certain criteria of benefits and households in the UK installed a record number of green energy upgrades in the first half of 2023.?

Polls have consistently shown that the majority of people back the transition to net zero in order to limit climate breakdown. Which then, if these announcements were a politically motivated decision, is senseless. Except to please a small few louder voices.?

Emissions won’t wait around until the perfect plan comes out, the key is to limit now, using technology readily available - not flip-flop because someone wants to drive a combustible engine for a bit longer.?