The net zero possibility: New India and emerging green energy sources

(This paper explores the critical intersection of climate change mitigation, green energy sources, and carbon emissions reduction within the framework of the 1.5-degree pathway. As global concerns regarding climate change intensify, the imperative to transition towards sustainable practices becomes more evident. The pursuit of net-zero emissions by 2050 has emerged as a pivotal goal to combat the escalating environmental crisis. The study begins by analyzing the global context, emphasizing the urgency of mitigating climate change by limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this, a pivotal aspect is the transition from conventional to renewable energy sources. The paper delves into the evolution of green energy technologies, highlighting their role in reducing carbon emissions and fostering a sustainable energy landscape.)

COP 28 has concluded on a positive note, albeit with several challenges. While nations express political commitment towards creating a better world by reducing carbon emissions and curbing the use of fossil fuels to adhere to the eagerly anticipated 1.5-degree pathway, achieving these goals seems daunting at present. The reality of global warming is more apparent than ever, with the world experiencing frequent and unpredictable weather changes. The looming question persists: "Are we inevitably approaching a 2-degree shift within this century?" The figure below depicts the possibility (IPCC, 2022)

The global push for green energy has been robust, with a determined shift away from fossil fuels. The overarching goal is to achieve a 45% reduction in emissions by 2030, ultimately reaching zero emissions by 2050. The strategy is two fold i.e., switch to electricity in all aspects of energy use from fossil fuel and green the electricity generation to achieve less or nil carbon related emission. This transition needs access to current technology and resources. Progress varies among nations—some have successfully transitioned, others are actively on the path, and a few have committed to the transition by 2070. The landscape of green energy technology is dynamic, with many ongoing developments in laboratories.

However, barriers persist. Many countries face limitations in accessing cutting-edge technology, and the financial burden of transitioning to green energy remains substantial for numerous nations. Poor and developing nations have other important priorities and need for energy security too. Despite these challenges, the urgency to address the catastrophic consequences of rising temperatures leaves no room for postponement of the established deadlines.

The fig 2 depicts the focus on every sector and the urgent need for action in each sector. The industry, building and transport need to be focused for migration into electricity , energy efficiency and other alternate energy. The focus on electricity generation is now shifting to solar and wind as main stay, ocean energy, biomass and small hydel to add to the list. Hydrogen also emerging as alternative very fast and green hydrogen will replace the blue.

The immediate target: World cannot afford to miss

?Reducing Green house emission by 45% by 2030 from 2010 level(-36.9 Gt CO2)

?Energy Mix to achieve CO2 emission reduction

–25% Reduction in use by energy efficiency

–20% direct end use of electricity( electrifying life)

_ 25% Renewable energy

–10% Hydrogen and derivative

–20% by CCU, CCS,BECCS, and other methods

The final energy mix ( world)is projected to have drastic reduction in coal, natural gas and oil as electricity taking the centre stage mainly sourced from renewable energy and nuclear, Biomass and hydrogen. The emission targets for 2030 is 21.1Gt CO2, 2040 is 6.8Gt and 2050 is zero. The daunting target of shifting from 64% fossil mix to 10% at final stage looks quite difficult today. Every sector such as industry, transport, building and electricity have their targets to achieve net zero by various methods. The figure depicts the entire scenario .

The Indian scenario looks very optimistic with future targeted addition of 500GW renewable by 2030. India has added 177 GW ( 2023) of non fossil fuel based electricity generation which is 42% of the installed capacity. Further, the solar is targeted four fold increase to 280GW from 70 GW at present and wind to three and half fold increase during the same period. Having a vast coastline of 7500km the offshore wind, tidal and wave energy also have a great potential of 37GW and 55GW respectively.

The direct use of fossil fuels for transport, electricity generation and other use must stop. This is possible by adopting energy transition at much faster pace than ever. This also calls for developing green habits of electrifying our every energy use prospective. As transport sector and building sector likely to grow at much faster rate the energy efficient buildings and energy efficient public transport can promote net reduction in carbon emission. As far as transport sector is concerned e-mobility inform of 100% electrified railway and EVs are being planned duly implementing energy efficient propulsion and storage systems. What needs to be seen 'how fast India adopts heavy vehicles on on non fossil fuel based or hybrid or electric propelled'. However, the building sector whether office or residential or commercial complexes need to focus on green at the design stage itself and retrofit green for the existing one and may need a transition from voluntary to policy focus. With this it is expected to reduce emission by 25% by adopting energy efficient technology and habit.

The variable sources like solar and wind which in turn depends on environment which is changing due to increase in average temperature also pose serious questions on viability. The studies indicate increasing temperature impacts not only on hottest days or wettest days or soil temperature but also impact the solar irradiation and wind pattern. The study shows shift in sun shine pattern and shifting wind pattern too in specific areas. This will have impact on the estimated energy generation from these sources and also viability of present installation due to shifts. The variable RE would always require support of storage system to maintain consistency of supply. However, world has to still find solution for baseload requirement considering these issues. The option of solar energy round the clock by transmitting from space solar installations to earth ( solar available for 24 hours) by laser or microwave needs a focus considering the cost and technology aspects. India need to explore more on offshore wind too and as projected now the shift should be from 80 m hub height to 120m. The land based wind mills will also have better use of resources and land if 120m is considered. The dedicated transmission line also is necessary to evacuate power from wind sites. The national green hydrogen mission launched by GOI is a right step forward to step up focus on hydrogen and optimise cost of green hydrogen too.

India, with its burgeoning population and rapid economic growth, faces unique challenges in curbing carbon emissions while meeting its growing energy demands. Keeping these in mind GOI had launched National mission for enhanced energy efficiency (NMEEE) and schemes like PAT(Performance. Achieve and Trade). The PAT launched in 7 cycles had an objective to target energy intensive sectors in the beginning and newer sectors got added there after. Overall target for energy saving had been for first two cycles 22.75 million tonnes of oil equivalent(MTOE) and reduction in 97 million tons of CO2 emission(2014-2019) targeting 8 energy intensive sectors in first and 11 sectors (3 new) in second and from next 5 cycles 10 MTOE (2019-2025) at different years. While PAT I covered major sectors like thermal power generation, Aluminum, Iron & steel, cement, textile. pulp and paper, Fertilizer, Alkali ( 36% total energy 2009-10)and PART II covered 8 existing and three new i.e., Railways, Discoms and Refinery,(( 50% of total energy) other cycles covered rest of the segments and designated customers. Thus, substantial energy savings and benchmarking have been achieved and energy related emissions have been avoided.

Many organisations in India has embarked upon the journey of energy efficiency and some have adopted voluntary carbon emission neutralization too. Indian Railways adopted 2030 as goalpost for net zero transition by complete switch over to electrification of railways and already achieved reduction in diesel use almost by 2/3rd which likely to be almost zero once the system is fully electrified. Railways also plan to establish solar and wind energy infrastructure to meet the energy needs. As Railways offer 1/8th carbon foot print for freight transport compared roadways, this effort will help to reduce the carbon footprint of overall transportation system. ICF, one of the production unit under Railway Ministry embarked upon net zero journey and set example by establishing green energy( solar and wind) 15MW infrastructure, reducing energy use by implementing energy efficiency and clean fuel substitution in the factory. Thus, ICF has been able to neutralize the emission of CO2 and is a net negative emitter since 2018.

In conclusion, this underscores the imperative of urgent and strategic action to combat climate change through the adoption of emerging green energy sources. Nuclear energy though not a RE by definition but is a clean energy which can substitute fossil fuel based thermal energy for electricity generation. India has its nuclear projects and can propel indigenous nuclear energy with medium reactors up to 300MWe capacity too. Whether this alternative would be acceptable or otherwise the future will tell? The case study of a pioneering enterprise in the Indian context serves as a practical guide for businesses and policymakers alike, offering valuable lessons in the pursuit of a sustainable and resilient future.