Nerela Assembly Election: Uphill Battle for AAP

Analyzing Nerela's Political Dynamics

Leaders line up for the upcoming electoral contest in Nerela Assembly Constituency.

As the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections approach, the Nerela Assembly Constituency is emerging as one of the most closely watched regions. Historically a hotbed of fluctuating allegiances, the upcoming election promises to be a high-stakes contest filled with unpredictable twists. Initially expected to be a straightforward contest between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the race has now grown more complicated, especially with local political dynamics continuing to evolve.

The various independent candidates and the continuing dissatisfaction of influential local leaders have added multiple layers to the election. This intricate political landscape will play a significant role in shaping the constituency’s electoral outcome.

Political Shifts in Nerela: A Complex Battle with Multiple Contenders

Nerela, located near the Delhi-Haryana border, is a constituency marked by its rural and semi-urban mix, with a significant portion of unauthorized localities. Jat and Brahmin voters have long dominated it and comprise a substantial part of the electorate, approximately 30%, and 25% respectively. While the AAP has made major inroads into this Jat-dominated constituency in recent years, the area remains an unpredictable battleground, with shifting loyalties and historical ties to both national parties, the BJP and Congress.

AAP's Decision to Stick with Sharad Chauhan: A Risky Move

Sharad Chauhan, who has served as the MLA of Nerela since 2015, was once seen as a promising leader for AAP. However, his tenure has been marred by growing dissatisfaction among the electorate, particularly regarding unfulfilled promises on crucial issues like infrastructure development, water supply, and the stalled metro project. Despite some visible progress, the lack of tangible change has alienated a significant portion of the electorate, leaving many questioning Chauhan’s ability to bring about meaningful improvements in the constituency.

In a move that surprised many, AAP chose to re-nominate Chauhan despite the rising discontent. While this decision may have been motivated by the desire to maintain continuity and party loyalty, it overlooks the key concern of anti-incumbency. The sentiment against Chauhan’s leadership is palpable, with voters in Nerela expressing frustration over poorly maintained roads, water scarcity, and stagnant development. These issues are critical for the rural and semi-urban voters of Nerela, who have seen little progress in the last few years.

This decision to field Chauhan once again may prove to be AAP’s Achilles’ heel in Nerela. While the party has enjoyed considerable support in the past, the failure to address the constituency's urgent needs has left the door open for challengers, and AAP’s attempt to retain power through its incumbent MLA is fraught with risk.

From left., Sharad Chauhan, Raj Karan Khatri, and Dinesh Bhardwaj

1. Sharad Chauhan (AAP) - Sharad Chauhan, a Rajput by caste, has represented Nerela for two consecutive terms (2015 and 2020) as a member of the AAP. Under his tenure, Nerela saw some development, but his leadership has been marred by unfulfilled promises related to critical infrastructural projects. The stalled metro project, poor road conditions, water shortages, and inadequate sanitation have generated dissatisfaction, especially among rural voters and those from marginalized localities. Despite these challenges, Chauhan remains a strong contender thanks to his entrenched support base among the party cadre and AAP’s organizational strength in the region.

His bid for a third consecutive term faces challenges from the growing anti-incumbency sentiment. The fact that AAP had originally planned to field Dinesh Bharadwaj, who had cultivated goodwill for his charity work during the COVID-19 pandemic, indicates a recognition within the party of the need for a change in leadership. Despite this, Chauhan's tenure at the helm of Nerela could still give him a competitive edge, though much will depend on how effectively he addresses the growing voter dissatisfaction.

2. Raj Karan Khatri (BJP) - Raj Karan Khatri, a member of the Jat community, has been selected as the BJP's candidate for Nerela. In a constituency dominated by Jat voters, the BJP stands to benefit from fielding a candidate who resonates with this key demographic, potentially strengthening the party's position in the region. However, his candidacy has earlier faced criticism, particularly from Neel Daman Khatri, a former BJP MLA and influential local leader, who has expressed dissatisfaction with the party’s decision to field him. Despite Neel Daman’s current support for Khatri, any lingering disappointment with the party’s choice could complicate BJP's efforts to build strong local support. While Khatri enjoys the backing of the BJP establishment, his relative anonymity and limited local influence may pose challenges in a constituency where the party has historically been competitive. His success in the election will depend on his ability to connect with voters and navigating the internal party tensions.

3. Independent Candidates - The political contest in Narela is becoming increasingly complex with a variety of factors influencing the outcome. The candidacy of Shakuntala alias Budiya, a former AAP leader who hails from a lower caste background and represents the interests of marginalized communities, adds an important dimension to the race. Her base of support largely comes from the Metro Vihar area, which, with its 30,000 residents primarily consisting of SC, ST, and Jhuggi communities, is a crucial constituency for any candidate aiming for victory.

Budiya’s appeal among these communities could siphon off votes from Sharad Chauhan (AAP) and may also pose a challenge to Raj Karan Khatri (BJP), whose organizational strength might not fully resonate with these grassroots voters. Her candidacy highlights the growing role of local leadership and caste-based dynamics, which remain a significant factor in Delhi’s electoral landscape.

The presence of independent candidates, like Budiya, also means that the vote could split, making it harder to predict a clear winner. If Dinesh Bharadwaj, who wields significant influence over local politics despite not contesting, decides to back one of the independent candidates, it could further tilt the balance in favor of either Budiya or another alternative, creating additional uncertainty for the major party candidates.

Dinesh Bhardwaj: A Rising Star in Narela’s Political Landscape

In December 2022, Dinesh Bharadwaj, a former Indian Kabaddi team captain, and Arjun Awardee, made a significant mark in local politics by winning from Ward No. 2, Bankner, in the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) elections. His victory, which came after the merger of the North Delhi Municipal Corporation into the unified MCD, helped him secure a strong foothold in the region. Initially, Bharadwaj was seen as the AAP’s top contender for the MLA seat in Narela. However, just one day before his nomination was to be filed, the party made a sudden and controversial decision to replace Bharadwaj with the incumbent MLA, Sharad Chauhan. This move has been perceived as a misstep by many within the party and the constituency. Bhardwaj’s exclusion has disappointed his supporters and raised questions about the party’s commitment to addressing voter concerns and embracing fresh leadership.

While Bharadwaj remains loyal to the AAP and has no intention of leaving the party, he has expressed dissatisfaction with Chauhan’s leadership. His growing influence in the constituency, fueled by his successful election campaign and strong support among party cadres, has positioned him as a vocal critic of the current MLA. Bharadwaj's opposition to Chauhan’s leadership is gaining traction, and he is backing a couple of independent candidates in a bid to challenge Chauhan's hold on the area. This move reflects Bharadwaj's frustration with the leadership rather than discontent with the party itself. While his actions are causing ripples in the local political landscape, they also highlight his determination to hold the incumbent MLA accountable and create a more competitive environment in Narela. His growing influence and willingness to challenge Chauhan could add significant pressure on the MLA and complicate the dynamics within the AAP.Moreover, Dinesh Bharadwaj’s influence within the Brahmin community(25% of the electorate), combined with the cancellation of his ticket by AAP, could lead to a shift in support towards the BJP.

A Glimpse into the Past:

The Assembly Elections reveal that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has a strong presence in the Northwest Delhi Parliamentary constituency, securing victories in all Assembly Constituencies (ACs) except Rohini, which remains a stronghold of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). However, it's important to highlight that the Northwest Delhi seat has historically been a stronghold for the BJP, with the party having won the seat three times in the past.

In the 2024 General Elections (GE), BJP's Yogender Chandolia emerged victorious over Udit Raj of the INDIA alliance (Indian National Congress). Chandolia secured a commanding margin of 25,966 votes in the Nerela constituency, underscoring the BJP's dominance in this region. The party had also led in the Nerela AC during the 2019 General Elections, further cementing its influence in the area.

In the Nerela Assembly constituency, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has consistently secured a significant vote share in recent elections, although it has only won the seat once (2013 Assembly Election) during the past four assembly elections. The party's vote share has consistently been above 30%, indicating its enduring influence in the area.

Voter Sentiment and Key Issues

The voting patterns in Nerela Assembly Constituency have shown considerable fluctuation over the years. While AAP has secured the seat in the last two terms (2015 and 2020), the BJP won it in 2013, and the INC took it in 2008.

Voter sentiment in Nerela is complex, with local issues such as poor infrastructure, unreliable water supply, and stalled developmental projects taking center stage. The AAP government’s promises of better infrastructure have largely remained unmet, leaving many voters frustrated. Similarly, while the BJP has a strong presence in the region, the relatively weak local profile of Raj Karan Khatri could be a handicap.

Conclusion: A Triangular Battle with Multiple Variables

As the election approaches, Narela’s political landscape remains volatile and intensely competitive. The battle between Sharad Chauhan (AAP), Raj Karan Khatri (BJP), and multiple independent candidates promises to be one of the most unpredictable races in the upcoming Delhi Assembly elections.

The growing anti-incumbency sentiment and failure to address voter concerns create openings for Sharad Chauhan’s opponents. Dinesh Bharadwaj, despite not contesting, continues to influence the political dynamics in the constituency by challenging the leadership and backing independent candidates. Raj Karan Khatri, while benefiting from BJP’s organizational strength, faces challenges due to his outsider status and internal party tensions.

To secure victory for AAP, the support of Dinesh Bharadwaj is likely to play a decisive role. It remains to be seen whom he will ultimately endorse, making his stance a critical factor in shaping the outcome of this high-stakes contest.

Caste dynamics, local leadership, and voter sentiment all intertwine to shape the political narrative, solidifying Narela as a pivotal electoral battleground. The constituency’s outcome will not only determine immediate representation but also carry broader implications for the region’s future political trajectory.