Negotiating Uncertainty in UK-EU Relations: Past, Present, and Future
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
by David Henig
Ten key points to negotiating the UK-EU relationship
Europe has been weakened by difficult UK-EU relations at a time of international challenge. Eight years after the Brexit referendum a new UK government and European Commission provides a good opportunity to reset approaches and put obstructions aside. Too big for either side to ignore, this will always be an important, time-consuming, and slightly chaotic relationship – which thus needs a much firmer footing based on the following shared understanding:
UK-EU relations matter for both sides. Economically, as the UK is the EU’s second largest trade partner, and the EU first for the UK. As neighbours in confronting shared regional challenges such as war in Europe and moving to net-zero. Historically, with the legacy of the UK’s membership.
In the UK, the aftermath of the Brexit referendum of 2016 has been intense, questions of economic impact and the future of Northern Ireland to the fore amidst tumultuous politics seeing six Prime Ministers in just over eight years. While less dramatic in Brussels and across the EU, there have been strong emotions as long-standing ties with the UK need to be reconsidered.
Though key to this story, relationship dynamics and negotiations have received little attention. For once politicians have made their decisions, it is for officials to reconcile their content, experts to advise on feasibility, and stakeholders to seek their influence. That is the prime focus of this paper, considering past and future against ideal third-country negotiations in which broad teams set objectives, test red lines, find common ground, and manage domestic politics. This is of course rather a different model to that of all-powerful lead negotiators assumed by previous UK governments.
Relative size and power always play a part in such negotiations. The UK needed a deal more than the EU, because approximately 48% of its trade was at stake?compared to 13%. As will be shown, involvement of two major countries, USA and Japan, added to the pressure on the UK. Nonetheless, this relationship must matter to the EU as probably the world’s second largest trade flow*.
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Figure 1: Top EU and US Trading Partners in 2022 (sources Eurostat and USTR)
Tales of Brexit take many different starting points, and this one uses 2016 in focusing mostly on the immediate past and future. Many prior tales can be debated, for example those suggesting the UK was always special or never a mainstream part of the EU, but ultimately this is just speculation. Likewise, it only considers in passing potentially transformative developments in the future such as a shrinking UK, or dissolved EU. Negotiators should have a wide hinterland of knowledge and views, but mostly focus on the matters at hand to achieve their overall policy goals.
*US figures for 2023 have yet to be published, however the UK remained the EU’s second largest trade partner. Figures indicate different statistical approaches, notably towards services, making exact comparison difficult.
Read the complete Policy Brief by David Henig here.
Founder - African Industrial Hub
2 个月https://rutglobal.blogspot.com/2025/01/dont-justify-your-prices-do-this.html