Is A Need to Avoid Uncertainty Getting in the Way?

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Leaders are constantly bombarded with information. Some of it is accurate, some contradictory, and some of it is deliberately misleading. Great leaders cultivate the ability to discern between reality and fiction; a difficult task when combined with our discomfort around uncertainty.?

It is only when we let go of our need to know everything that we can begin to make better choices for ourselves, our organizations, and our teams. What if we related to uncertainty this way: when we are uncertain, we respond with curiosity, a key component of good decision-making.

Why We Love Certainty

The? human preference for certainty has been widely-documented by psychologists and economists who study how we make decisions. Our preference for certainty and discomfort with not knowing are so strong, we unconsciously resort to a slew of cognitive shortcuts, even though they all can, and do, lead to mistakes. For example, confirmation bias leads us to dismiss information that doesn’t fit or support what we already believe. It’s tricky because we are comforted by what confirms and discomfited by what challenges our beliefs. This is completely understandable, but can lead us astray nonetheless.?

We use these kinds of shortcuts in part because there are social repercussions for appearing uncertain.Confident leaders are rewarded with the ability to influence and enhanced credibility. When we see an uncertain leader, we worry, even if only a little. If the leader doesn’t have answers, how can we trust them? This is especially acute when an organization is in crisis or is facing a significant change. When the stakes are high, leaders can be tempted to project certainty, rather than admit there are some things they don’t know.?

Heroic Expectations

In order to avoid sabotaging the quality of our decision-making, we must first undo the expectation that we should know everything with absolute certainty. The image of a heroic, unwavering leader may be comforting, but it’s not realistic.???

A surprising and ironic cause of bad decisions can be past successes. Leaders who make an excellent decision in one situation often assume that what worked then will work in the future. However, this fails to take context into account and can lead to big mistakes. This tendency to overgeneralize is especially common in leaders who feel pressured to be heroic, but an inflated ego isn’t necessary to be vulnerable to this trap. This also happens to intelligent, honest, well-intended leaders.?

What Leaders Can Learn From Scientists?

Our preference for certainty is a close cousin to our desire to hold on to beliefs. However, holding on too tightly can interfere with our ability to learn and grow. Learning doesn’t always involve adding on new information; sometimes it requires us to let go of something. Leaders who want to be more in tune with how they make decisions can learn to be more open, more willing to change? heir mind. This is antithetical to our idea of the hero leader, and it requires the courage to say something most leaders dread: “I don’t know” or “I was wrong.”?

Leaders can take a lesson from scientists, who rely on method as much as they rely on facts and beliefs. Scientists use rigorous methods and skepticism until they have plenty of evidence to back up their claim and the best among them are willing to change their minds when the data tells them they must.?

When leaders are willing to admit (and even embrace) their own uncertainty, they’re better able to reflect and understand the cause of a problem, or a success, giving them a clearer picture of the influences at play and allowing for more creative and better decisions.??

More on how to use uncertainty and certainty as a strategic weapon is in my newest book, Meta-Leadership: How to See What Others Don’t and Make Great Decisions. An entire chapter is about this idea! The book will be released on April 18th! Click here to pre-order your copy!

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