Is it Necessary to Ban the Sale of New Combustion Vehicles by 2035?

As 2035 approaches, a critical question remains: does it make sense to prohibit the sale of combustion engine vehicles? Currently, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have not yet reached price parity with combustion models, their range does not yet satisfy all usage profiles, and the charging infrastructure is not yet fully developed. These are the primary reasons why combustion vehicles continue to be sold. If the EU aims to meet the emission reduction targets set for the end of the decade and wants all new car buyers to choose zero-emission models, eliminating the combustion option might be the only solution. But is it really necessary to eliminate combustion engines, or if they are not eliminated, will it be necessary to rely on synthetic fuels to prolong their existence?

In the following sections, we will analyze key components of both vehicle types and compare their potential for evolution.

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1. Batteries: The Heart of BEVs

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BEVs - Batteries are undeniably the core component of BEVs and the main focus of innovation. Currently, lithium-ion batteries with NMC (Nickel, Manganese, and Cobalt) cathodes and liquid electrolytes dominate the market, offering a good balance of energy density and lifecycle. However, there is a growing adoption of Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries due to their advantages in safety, durability, and lower cost, despite having slightly lower energy density. These LFP batteries, already widely used in vehicles from manufacturers like Tesla and BYD, have greater tolerance to overheating and a longer lifespan, making them ideal for applications where durability is a priority.

Moreover, semi-solid-state batteries are beginning to equip some commercially available models, such as the NIO蔚来 ET7. This model is equipped with a 150 kWh semi-solid-state battery, allowing a range of up to 1,070 km on a single charge. This technology, which partially replaces the liquid electrolyte with a suspended solid material, offers higher energy density and lower weight compared to traditional batteries. Semi-solid batteries represent an important intermediate step toward solid-state batteries (SSBs). SSBs promise an energy density exceeding 400 Wh/kg, a significant increase compared to current values, and considerably lower weight. This evolution will not only provide greater range for electric vehicles but also reduce charging time and production costs, thanks to the reduced need for complex cooling systems.

ICEs - In contrast, internal combustion engines rely on fossil fuels with high energy density, but they are nearing their peak efficiency. Any further efficiency gains in ICEs are marginal, and the incremental improvements have been accompanied by increased complexity in emission control and exhaust treatment systems. These systems not only add cost but also reduce the engine's reliability and simplicity.

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2. Motors and Energy Efficiency

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BEVs - Electric motors are known for their superior efficiency, converting over 90% of stored energy into motion, compared to about 30% for combustion engines. Recently, we have seen the development of axial flux electric motors, which are lighter and more compact, allowing for the construction of more efficient and better-performing vehicles. A striking example is the Ferrari SF90 Stradale, which integrates a YASA axial flux motor. This motor weighs only about 23 kg and can generate up to 220 hp, located between the 780 hp V8 engine and the gearbox, contributing to a total combined power output of 1000 hp. Thanks to this technology, Ferrari achieves extraordinary performance with an electric motor much more compact and lighter than an equivalent combustion engine. Other brands, such as McLaren Automotive Ltd and Koenigsegg Automotive AB , are also adopting this technology to maximize the efficiency and performance of their high-performance vehicles. While these axial flux motors are currently used in niche hybrid models, it is likely that in the future they will be used in mass-produced BEVs.

ICEs - On the other hand, in combustion engines, the margins for increasing efficiency are becoming increasingly narrow, and improvements are primarily focused on hybrid systems that combine a combustion engine with electric motors to enhance efficiency. However, these hybrid systems are a temporary solution that cannot rival the evolution potential of BEVs.

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3. Power Electronics and Control

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BEVs - Another area of evolution in BEVs is power electronics. Components such as inverters and converters have seen significant advancements with the introduction of silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) semiconductors. These materials allow for greater efficiency, reduced energy loss, and a more compact component design. Replacing traditional transistors with more efficient and smaller units, such as HEMT (High Electron Mobility Transistor) MOSFETs, brings tangible benefits, such as a significant reduction in heat generated during operation, reducing the need for bulky cooling systems. Furthermore, HEMT MOSFETs enable inverters to operate at higher frequencies, increasing the overall system efficiency and resulting in greater vehicle range. These transistors also contribute to the reduction in size and weight of electronic components, allowing for more compact and lighter designs that ultimately improve the performance and energy efficiency of electric vehicles.

ICEs - For ICEs, electronics have also evolved, but innovations are more focused on fuel management and emission control systems. While these advancements are important, they do not provide the same leaps in efficiency seen in electric systems. Additionally, the complexity and cost of these systems increase significantly.

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4. Thermal Management Systems

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BEVs - Thermal management is a significant challenge for both BEVs and ICEs. In BEVs, innovations in solid-state batteries, which require less cooling, represent a paradigm shift. Simpler cooling systems result in lower costs and greater usable energy density. This improvement can translate into lighter batteries, which reduces the vehicle's overall weight and improves efficiency, or into higher capacity batteries, increasing the vehicle's range. For example, a solid-state battery with an energy density of 400 Wh/kg can be 30% lighter than a traditional lithium-ion battery while maintaining the same energy capacity, or it can provide up to 30% more range if the current weight is maintained. This weight reduction also allows for improved vehicle performance and reduced energy consumption, resulting in significant gains in the overall efficiency of BEVs.

ICEs - On the other hand, in ICEs, thermal management has already reached a level of sophistication that is difficult to improve without compromising other aspects of the engine. Cooling, heating, and emissions management are already highly optimized components, leaving little room for innovation that does not involve adding complexity and additional costs.

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5. Sustainability and Environmental Impact

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BEVs - Finally, sustainability is an area where BEVs have an undeniable advantage, not only in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide (CO?), but also by eliminating NOx (nitrogen oxides), including pollutants like nitrogen dioxide (NO?) and nitric oxide (NO), and particulate matter, contributing significantly to improved air quality and public health. As electric vehicle charging networks expand and become more integrated with renewable energy sources, the environmental impact of BEVs tends to decrease.

Technologies like bidirectional charging will also allow BEVs to play an active role in energy management, feeding energy back into the grid during peak demand periods. By returning stored energy to the grid during times of high demand, BEVs can help stabilize the power grid, preventing overloads and reducing the need to rely on quick-response power plants, which are often less efficient and more polluting. This process, known as Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G), allows thousands of electric vehicles to act as a 'distributed battery,' providing a flexible energy source and helping to maintain grid frequency within desired limits, which is crucial for the safe and efficient operation of the electrical system.

ICEs - Combustion vehicles, on the other hand, face increasing pressure due to their reliance on fossil fuels and associated emissions. Although there are efforts to develop synthetic fuels and biofuels, these are stopgap solutions that only partially address the problem of carbon dioxide (CO?) emissions. Synthetic fuels capture CO? during production, which can offset CO? emissions at the tailpipe. However, this process does not solve other environmental problems, such as nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and fine particulate matter, which continue to be produced during combustion. These emissions are harmful to public health and contribute to air pollution, limiting the long-term sustainability of synthetic fuels compared to the total electrification provided by BEVs.

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Conclusion

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The comparison between electric vehicles and combustion vehicles reveals a clear picture: while ICEs have reached their peak in terms of evolution, BEVs are just beginning. With ongoing advancements in batteries, motors, electronics, and thermal management, BEVs will not only surpass ICEs in all aspects of performance and efficiency but will also become the obvious choice for consumers without the need for legislative bans. By 2035, it is likely that most drivers will naturally prefer electric mobility, not because of regulations but because the technology will simply be superior.

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Ricardo Oliveira

World Shopper | #GetReadyForTheFuture