A Nearly Authentic Derby by Mark Shrager

And so here we are, on Sunday, September 6, with the Kentucky Derby less than 24 hours in the rearview mirror, and we find ourselves reflecting once again on what is now the unquestioned fact of life for Kentucky Derbies now and, maybe, forever: 

If your stakes-quality 3-year-old can’t race within a few lengths of the early speed, you might as well keep it in the barn on Derby Day, hoping for a smaller field and a fairer chance for a victory in some other race.                                                                                                   

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Mark Shrager and Diane Crump team up to tell the inspiring story of the first woman to ride in the Kentucky Derby in Diane Crump: A Horse-Racing Pioneer’s Life in the Saddle, now available at Amazon.com and other on-line booksellers. Mark Shrager’s first book, The Great Sweepstakes of 1877, is available in hardcover or paperback from Amazon.com and other on-line sources.

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Take a look at Authentic’s Derby-winning running line:

   1/4        1/2       3/4        Mi.      Str.        Fin.

 1-1/2      1-1        1-1       1-hd     1-1        1-1 ?

If this line transports you magically back to the triumphant Derby Day romps of California Chrome and American Pharoah and Nyquist and Always Dreaming and Justify and Maximum Security (the latter disqualified following his wire-to-wire cakewalk to the finish), there is good reason: this is now the seventh consecutive year that the Derby winner has led, or at least raced within shouting distance of the early leaders, from the beginning of the race through the victorious run to the wire. Orb, way back in 2013, remains the last runner to pose in the Churchill Downs winner’s circle following a stretch-running victory in the Run for the Roses.

Those of you who have read my Derby predictions and post-race commentaries over the years know that I am not a fan of the 20-horse fields that so often contest the Derby. Runners that have impressed with stretch-running efforts in prep races have inevitably been subjected to crowding and bumping and shuffling back and whatever other indignities could be bestowed upon them as they attempted to blaze a victorious path under the famed Twin Spires. Typically, the result has been a place among the also-rans. How many well-meant colts have met their unfortunate Derby fates during that final, unyielding quarter mile! 

Frankly, I’d rather not think about it, having had my own money riding on more than a handful of those hopeful but ultimately hapless late-kickers. But while I won’t attempt to resurrect the previous six years’ stretch-runners’ broken dreams and unfulfilled promise, I will take a moment to review the official running lines of those that attempted to win yesterday’s Derby from off the pace. As usual, they are a forlorn lot. Consider the following Daily Racing Form chart comments:

HONOR A.P., fourteenth after the first quarter-mile, finished fourth (he’s a pretty fast horse out of the gate – what was he doing 12 ? lengths back after the first quarter-mile?): “ . . . hesitated at the start, was unhurried while four wide into the first turn, looped into the backstretch six deep, made a steady, sweeping move through the second turn, fanned into the nine path into the stretch, continued on and was making progress.”

Without suggesting that Honor A.P.’s path to defeat was anything unusual, let’s recall the handicapping rule of thumb that suggests a runner loses a length for every path it runs wide on a turn. Four-wide on the first turn, nine-wide into the stretch, Honor A.P. can be said to have surrendered eleven lengths with his circuitous journey. He lost the Derby by five lengths. This may well have been the best colt in the 2020 Derby.

MAX PLAYER, twelfth after the first quarter-mile, finished fifth: “ . . . reserved off of the inside, moved out between rivals four or five wide on the far turn, churned on in traffic and improved position.”

NECKER ISLAND, thirteenth after the first quarter-mile, finished ninth: “ . . . was unhurried in the two to three path, moved out eight deep into lane, drifted inward in the stretch and passed some tired ones.”

MAJOR FED, sixth after the first quarter-mile, finished tenth: “ . . . was keen to place between foes, jostled into first turn, leveled into stride on the backstretch while close up, was caught in traffic and altered course when NY TRAFFIC came out near the five-sixteenths pole, stayed on to stretch and tired.”

SOUTH BEND, eleventh after the first quarter-mile, finished fifteenth and last: “ . . . lobbed along saving ground, commenced a drive into the second turn, shifted out six wide and offered his bid, came eight wide, but caved and retreated.”

I had hoped that yesterday’s diminished field – only fifteen starters, following the late scratch of Thousand Words – might have afforded a more honest chance for the stretch-runners, but no, even a field that was five fewer than the maximum cost at least five runners – one of which, Honor A.P., was the Derby’s 7-to-1 second choice – the only chance they’ll ever have to win America’s most iconic horse race.   

But I knew all this before the race, and I also knew – I’ve been at this game for nearly 50 years – that early speed is a benefit, and lone early speed can be an enormous benefit. I always begin handicapping a race by deciding, based on past performance, which horse or horses (a crucial distinction, whether it will be one or more than one) will have the early lead, which will be stalking the leaders, which will be coming from farther back, and which will be charging from far behind. For the Derby, I automatically discard the last group – Enforceable, Major Fed, South Bend, Mr. Big News, Sole Volante and Winning Impression. Mr. Big News surprised me with his third-place finish; the rest ran as I thought they would – fell back, then stayed there.

I should have looked more closely at those front-runners, though. There were two that appeared capable of taking the early lead with little or no competition, and these were Thousand Words, wire-to-wire winner of the Shared Belief Stakes, and Authentic, which led the Haskell, the San Felipe and the Sham Stakes from flagfall to finish. Why didn’t I see it? Why?????

The answer is that rather than seeing the past performances as I might for any other horse race, I was instead rerunning in my head Tiz the Law’s über-dominant Florida Derby and Belmont Stakes and Travers victories. Yes, I’ll admit it: the blaze-faced Derby favorite turned my head. But I know only too well the advantage a lone front-runner has in any field, and particularly one like the Derby, where the stretch run is comprised of a series of bumping matches that compromise the chances of anything with a late kick. I should have recalibrated when Thousand Words became a late scratch. But I didn’t. My bad.

Despite Authentic’s Derby triumph, I can refer to yesterday’s results only as “nearly Authentic.” It’s true that the Bob Baffert-trained, John Velazquez-ridden son of Into Mischief earned a measure of respect by holding off Tiz the Law and passing first under the Churchill Downs finish wire. And the result will live in the history books for as long as the Derby is run. 

But was it a deserved victory? It was earned with a lone-f front-running effort that isn’t necessarily going to be repeated when the composition of the field changes in the Preakness and the Breeders’ Cup Classic, the likely next two stops on Authentic’s road to possible Horse of the Year honors. 

Let’s see what happens down the road before we begin anointing Authentic the champion of anything but this one race.