Navigating the Uncharted Territory of Fleet Electrification: The Unknown Unknowns

As organisations embark on the journey to electrify their fleets, they're met with a complex web of challenges, opportunities, and uncertainties. While the benefits of transitioning to Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs), typically Electric Vehicles (EVs) are well-documented – reduced emissions, lower operating costs, and improved performance – there are numerous unknown unknowns that can catch fleet managers off guard.

This transition away from diesel and fossil fuels will be the biggest change in transport since we swapped the horse for a Model T. As with most change we have a bit to learn, there are often whole swaths of information we didn’t even know we needed to know.

In any change we are faced with three classes of information:

·?????? Known knowns – That which we have the information for and know we needed it.

·?????? Known unknowns – we know we have a gap in understanding but have yet to work out what to do about it.

·?????? Unknown unknowns – those blind spots that we don’t know exist let alone understand there is a gap in understanding that needs to be addressed.

Ultimately when embarking on change we can’t move forward until we understand what we don’t know and before we can address it. In this blog, we'll delve into the uncharted territory of fleet electrification, exploring the hidden pitfalls and unforeseen consequences that demand attention, with a focus on truck fleets.

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Unknown Unknown 1: Strategy - Why are we even bothering?

Like any organisational change, an EV transition needs to come from a strategic commitment to do so. If the strategy is not solid, then the change will stall or at least be rocky. I’ve worked with many fleets who get excited about the glitz and glamour of a shiny new EV but have no strategy to guide the type and pace of change, leading to frustration. The unknown here is that fleets must get the drivers for change in place so they can engage with the exciting bits. The organisation needs to answer:

·???? What is our strategy, triggers for change and resulting pace of change from diesel?

Unknown Unknown 2: Selecting the right technology pathways

In the transition away from diesel it is not clear to everyone what technology we are heading to. Most of the unknowns start here and many fleet operators and even industry professionals are still not clear on questions like these:

·?????? To what degree is hydrogen going to be a solution and when?

·?????? How big a truck or long a route could an electric truck do the job?

·?????? What options do we have where neither EV or hydrogen are currently suitable?

Unknown Unknown 3: Charging and Infrastructure Complexity

While the availability of public charging stations is increasing it will have little bearing on truck fleets. Fleets will be focussed on charging and managing private charging infrastructure at their depots. Its more than just a few wires and some shiny boxes with screens on them. There are many aspects that fleet (and even asset) managers have not considered before. These aspects to address include but are not limited to:

Unknown Unknown 4: Range and Route Optimisation

How far will an electric truck go? That depends on how much energy it holds and how much you are expected to use. It’s also impacted by how much a fleet is willing to modify its behaviour and optimise it to best suit EVs.

Almost every element of this topic is new information to an experienced fleet operator and within it are several unknowns. From “what do we do if it runs out”, to “how much does full load make a difference”, all reasonable questions that need exploring. The lesser-known aspects include the amount to which elevation, weather and wind impact range, all of which are vehicle dependant. Exploring this topic alone will leave the most experience operators with several “aha” moments.

Unknown Unknown 5: Weight and Payload Considerations

EVs are typically a bit (10-15%) heavier than their ICE counterparts, often eroding payload, which in trucking is everything. This issue can be over blown when the real numbers are considered, both the vehicle potential and the actual loads being carried. More fleets than you might expect don’t really know their typical load mass (I like to get last week’s con-notes). The difference between payloads of EV models in the market is wild. This is an unknown for those who haven’t spent the hours I have pouring over payload drawings, OEM and body builder “estimates” for EVs. While fleet operators are typically very strong on payload data there are hours of investigation required on the topic that most don’t know they will need to choose and implement EVs.

Unknown Unknown 6: Maintenance, Repair and Vehicle (Battery) Life

The difference in maintenance for a ZEV versus a diesel is an unknown, as is the expected life of the vehicle and its major components. Many in the industry can give you the maintenance schedule of their diesel trucks and expected life for the engine or gearbox from the top of their head. Not only the maintenance periods and component lives are unknown but also the types of new individual components themselves.

Battery life is clearly an unknown for most of the industry and opinion feeds many concerns on the topic. However, there are enough data points now to better inform on both topics of maintenance and battery degradation. Training for repair is also now a better understood and a widely supported aspect of the transition.

Unknown Unknown 7: Total Costs and Residual Values

The pace of transition will be heavily influenced by the costs of the new technologies supporting strategic drivers. The best fleets know their diesel vehicle operating costs to the cents per kilometre but now must learn and model new technologies with new inputs.

Residual value is the greatest component of most total cost of ownership calculations and this unknown is the most challenging to overcome. Simply put, “How much could I sell this ZEV for when I’m done with it?” Many factors influence the answer but none more than; “what the market will pay for it”. I often have operators run a thought experiment to the end of the proposed truck life and put themselves in that year (like 2030). I have them imagine the landscape, the truck market, the pressure to decarbonise, customer demands and the demand for used but good electric trucks. This often tempers the bearish position on the residual value of EVs.

So how can fleet operators preparing for the Unknown Unknowns

1.??????? Engage with INDEPENDENT experts to learn fast: There is a quick way to get across the unknowns of the transition – engage with those who have done it. I am one of very few in Australia to have bought, sold, designed, implemented EVs and researched policy on the EV truck transition. One hour with me will lift the lid on many of the unknowns. ?

Beware of the messenger, listening to the salesperson from the truck dealer you last bought from is not likely to be the best source of EV information (they often know less than you and are tainted by their brand’s position). Consider insights from industry specialists, utilities, and technology providers.

2.??????? Develop flexible strategies: Set out a strategy for the transition of your fleet, consider what your customers expect of you and to what degree do you wish to lead change across the industry. Create an adaptable plan to accommodate evolving technologies, regulations, and market conditions.

3.??????? Conduct thorough assessments: Evaluate your fleet operations, tasks, infrastructure, and energy needs to identify potential challenges.

4.??????? Invest in employee education: at every level. Appoint a champion in your fleet to take the lead on the change and support them to train senior managers, drivers, technicians, and fleet managers. Independent EV specialists can accelerate this.

5.??????? Monitor and adjust your approach: Continuously track key performance indicators and adjust strategies as the market and your fleet changes in the coming years.

By acknowledging and addressing the unknown unknowns of fleet electrification, truck fleets can mitigate risks, capitalise on opportunities, and ensure a successful transition to a more sustainable, efficient, and connected fleet. This blog at the ZEV Integrations website