Navigating Today's Bull Market (July 21, 2024)

Written July 10, 2024

This early phase of the Bull Market shows promise with improving corporate earnings and increasing optimism among analysts. This rising confidence is usually witnessed in the early stages of Bull Markets and is further supported by historical patterns analysis & insights, and examination of moving average trends. While we remain vigilant for signs of excess, it's encouraging that the widely anticipated recession has not materialized and that rate cuts are on the horizon. Our approach continues to evolve with market conditions. While acknowledging that conditions can change, the sensible approach is to stay abreast of daily fluctuations?as eventually, they will produce a discernable pattern with predictive value.

• Market Uptrend: Rally began Oct. 26, 2023, confirmed with a 1.64% follow through Nov. 1, a green light to buy leading growth stocks. Bill O’Neil, founder of Investors Business Daily developed parameters for follow-throughs: +1.25% or more on a higher volume trading day. No sustainable rally has ever started without a follow-through.
• Brief Pullback: 8%, Mar. 21 to Apr. 19, 2024, over 20 days, following a 3995-point NASDAQ rally that lasted 141 days or just 14% as long.?
• Dow Theory Insights: Corrections typically last 3 weeks to 3 months, with retracements of 1/3rd to 2/3rd of previous advances. May-Apr. ‘24 retracement surrendering 1316 or 32.9%, the low end of normal.
• Bull Market Duration: NASDAQ in a Power Trend since early January, indicating potential for robust gains.
• Historical Perspective: The Bull Market from March '20 to November '21 saw a 144% rise (9422 points) over 608 days, followed by a 326-day corrective phase.

• Bear Market Contrast: '21-'22 saw a 33% decline, prompting strategy adjustments until recovery in Oct.'22.

• Market Volatility: NASDAQ's Covid-induced crash of 32% Mar. '20, lasted 20 days, indicating the importance of adaptive strategies. Just 10 trading sessions later, a new uptrend was confirmed on Apr. 6, rising 142% through Nov. 21, ’21.
• Current Outlook: As of July 10, 2024, the NASDAQ is up 48.66% since Oct. '23 as of July 10, '24, showing strength amidst occasional corrections.
• Strategic Approach: Continues to evolve with market conditions, leveraging historical insights and technical indicators.

July 24, 2024 Update: One of the key principles of The Dow Theory is that “The market movement reflects all the real knowledge available.” Otherwise said, “The averages discount everything.” Apropos of the CrowdStrike software glitch & Biden’s withdrawal from the Presidential race, The Dow Theory would say, “The averages quickly appraise...calamities” or sudden unexpected occurrences.

The Disruptive Stock Strategy Team:?

John Preston [email protected] Liam Hibbits [email protected]???