KENYA'S FOREIGN POLICY TIGHTROPE: BALANCING US RELATIONS AMID GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS

INTRODUCTION        

Kenya's alignment with the US, especially amidst global movements like de-dollarization and the increasing influence of BRICS nations, could have far-reaching implications. Historically, Kenya has benefited from a "Look East Policy" under former presidents, fostering close ties with China that spurred economic growth. The current administration's pivot towards the US risks fragmenting these relationships and diminishing trust from other developing nations.

This article explores the complexities of Kenya’s foreign policy, the risks of over-reliance on the US, and the broader geopolitical implications. It delves into the economic and political disparities between Kenya and the US, the potential fallout from Kenya's shift in alliances, and the challenges of maintaining a balanced foreign policy in a multipolar world.

The Intricacies of US-Kenya Relations        

On one hand, the US-Kenya relationship promises significant benefits, including economic aid, technological transfer, and political support. These advantages are particularly crucial for Kenya, a developing country seeking to bolster its socio-economic infrastructure and enhance political stability. The US, with its advanced economy and robust technological prowess, presents an alluring partner in Kenya's pursuit of development.

However, the flip side of this partnership reveals a more critical perspective. Many Kenyans, myself included, harbor skepticism towards the US government. The US foreign policy, often characterized by manipulation and intimidation, raises concerns about Kenya’s sovereignty and autonomy. Historically, the US has wielded significant influence over developing countries, using economic and political leverage to advance its global agenda. This perception of coercion is particularly relevant in the context of Kenya, which lacks the economic and political bargaining power to match the US.

Kenya's Limited Bargaining Power        

Kenya, as a developing nation, finds itself in a challenging position when engaging with a superpower like the United States. The economic disparities between the two countries mean that Kenya often enters negotiations from a position of weakness. The US, with its sophisticated foreign policy apparatus, plans strategically far ahead, often outmaneuvering less experienced counterparts. This power imbalance raises valid concerns about Kenya's ability to negotiate terms that are genuinely beneficial for its long-term interests.

Kenya's current economic and political constraints further exacerbate this imbalance. With a significant portion of its national debt owed to international institutions closely linked to the US, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, Kenya's economic policies are often influenced by these bodies. The fiscal policies recommended by these institutions have included over-taxation, which has adversely affected the common citizens of Kenya. This dependency on US-linked financial support could potentially compromise Kenya's economic sovereignty and policy-making independence.

Global Perception and the Path of Alignment        

Another critical aspect of Kenya’s foreign policy is the perception it garners from other African nations and countries in the Global South. Kenya's apparent alignment with the US contrasts sharply with the recent agenda of de-dollarization pursued by many developing nations. This initiative aims to reduce dependency on the US dollar and promote economic sovereignty. Countries like China, Russia, and members of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) have been at the forefront of this movement, advocating for a multipolar world order that challenges US hegemony.

Under the leadership of Kenya’s third president, the late Mwai Kibaki, Kenya adopted a "Look East Policy" that fostered closer ties with China. This policy yielded substantial economic benefits, as evidenced by the robust infrastructure development funded through China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The subsequent administration of former president Uhuru Kenyatta continued this trajectory, further solidifying Kenya’s partnership with China. However, the current administration under President William Ruto appears to be pivoting back towards the West, particularly the US. This swift shift in foreign policy could have detrimental effects on Kenya’s relationships with other global players.

The Risks of Over-Reliance on the US        

Kenya’s strong alignment with the US could alienate other influential partners such as China and Russia. Given Kenya’s significant debt to China, particularly for infrastructure projects like the Standard Gauge Railway, a deteriorating relationship with China could jeopardize future cooperation and economic assistance. Furthermore, Kenya’s stance may be perceived as undermining the collective efforts of the Global South to establish a more balanced global economic order.

This alignment with the US could also strain Kenya’s relations with other African nations. Many African countries view the US with suspicion, given its history of interventionist policies and its role in geopolitical conflicts. For instance, the US’s involvement in the destabilization of Libya and its unwavering support for Israel against Palestine have raised concerns about its commitment to respecting the sovereignty of developing nations. Kenya must, therefore, navigate its relationship with the US carefully, mindful of the broader geopolitical implications and the perceptions of its African peers.

Balancing Act: Kenya’s Foreign Policy Challenges        

For Kenya's foreign policy experts, the task of balancing these priorities is indeed formidable. The US, driven by its national interests, often adopts a realist approach to international relations, focusing on power and strategic advantage. In contrast, Kenya, with its limited economic and political leverage, must adopt a more nuanced strategy to safeguard its interests.

Kenya’s foreign policy must strive for a balanced approach that does not overly align with either the West or the East. This delicate balancing act involves engaging with multiple global actors, fostering diversified partnerships, and maintaining an independent stance on key international issues. Such a strategy would enable Kenya to leverage its strategic position in the global arena without being overly dependent on any single power.

Conclusively, Kenya’s evolving foreign policy reflects its aspirations and challenges as a developing nation navigating a complex global landscape. While the relationship with the US offers significant opportunities, it also presents risks that must be carefully managed. Kenya's leaders must remain vigilant, ensuring that their engagement with the US does not compromise the country’s sovereignty or alienate other critical partners. By pursuing a balanced and pragmatic foreign policy, Kenya can enhance its global standing, promote sustainable development, and foster a more equitable international order.