Navigating the Skies: November 2023 Air Cargo Market Analysis

The global air cargo industry witnessed robust growth in November 2023, showcasing an impressive 8.3% year-on-year (YoY) increase in demand, marking the highest annual growth in approximately two years. Here's a detailed overview of the key trends and factors shaping the air cargo landscape:

1. Global Air Cargo Demand Surges

• November recorded 22.4 billion cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), an 8.3% YoY increase – the highest since December 2021.
• Despite this remarkable growth, the industry still lags 2.5% below pre-pandemic levels.

2. Air Cargo Capacity Continues to Expand

• Available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs) maintained levels above 2019 for seven consecutive months, reaching 47.9 billion in November, a 13.7% YoY increase.
• The strong return in air passenger belly capacity contributed significantly to this growth.

3. Upward Trend in Cargo Load Factors

• Cargo load factors (CLF) witnessed a recent uptick, reaching 46.7% in November, indicating a balance between demand and supply.
• The CLF has followed a consistent upward trend, driving both revenue and profitability for airlines.

4. Global Economic Indicators Impacting Air Cargo

• Global cross-border trade and industrial production recorded growth in October, signaling a positive trend.
• The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed marginal contractions in manufacturing output and new export orders, reflecting economic challenges.

5. Softening Inflation in Major Economies

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) for major advanced economies softened around 3% YoY in November, with concerns about a looming economic slowdown.
• Producer Price Index (PPI) exhibited regional variations, with China's PPI showing negative growth for the second consecutive month.

6. Air Cargo Yields and Jet Fuel Prices

• Jet fuel prices declined by 4.0% from October, closing at USD 116.1 per barrel in November.
• Air cargo yields, including surcharges, continued their upward trend, rising by 8.9% since October.

7. Trade Lane Analysis

• Middle East–Europe trade lane experienced its fourth consecutive growth, with a 23.5% YoY increase in international CTKs.
• Within Asia market saw its first expansion in 17 months, registering a strong 5.4% annual growth.

Conclusion: Navigating Challenges and Embracing Growth

While the air cargo industry faces challenges in meeting the June 1 deadline for new regulations, the overall positive trends in demand, capacity, and load factors indicate a resilient recovery. Stakeholders must adapt to these dynamics, fostering sustainable growth amid global economic fluctuations.

Source : air-cargo-market-analysis---november-2023

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