Navigating Seasonal Market Challenges
Key Trends
November News
Each year, one of the 154 US national forests is selected to provide the tree which sits on the West Lawn of the U.S. Capitol for the holiday season. This year’s tree, The Peoples Tree, started its journey from the Tongass National Forest in Alaska on October 26 and will make the more than 4,000 mi. journey to the U.S. Capitol over the next couple weeks.?????
The start of this journey often indicates the start of seasonal increased demand as trees start moving across the country. Oregon and North Carolina account for just over half of the 25-30 million trees harvested nationwide. Oregon produces the most Christmas trees in the United States, accounting for about 30-40% of the nation’s Christmas tree supply. Around 92% of Oregon’s trees are exported from the region, mainly to California (45%) and Mexico (16%).
This season also coincides with Fall produce in the PNW. Potatoes, onions, pears, apples, and others also vie for carrier capacity in the area making market conditions tough. Speak with your Logistics Consultant today to understand how this season may impact your business.
Market Update
Supply Update
The number of carriers exiting the market continues to remain stable. For-hire carrier revocations (the net number of carriers gaining active authority vs the number of carriers whose authority was revoked) totaled 2,636 in the third quarter. This was the lowest quarterly decrease since the market began to decline in 2022. There were 16,870 revocations for the quarter, the fewest since Q1 2022.
Demand Update
Consumer Spending continues to be robust while the industrial sector continues to lag. Multiple network wide disruptions in October helped bring broader manufacturing production numbers down. With two major hurricanes (Helene and Milton) hitting the US coast as well as a strike at Boeing, FTR’s 2024 forecast for total truck loadings is a 0.4% decrease, down from 0.6%. The 2025 forecast, however, did expand to 1.6% growth vs 1.4% in the previous month.
Rate Update
FTR adjusted their forecast in both Spot and Contract outlooks for 2024 and 2025. Continued weaker than expected Spot rates to finish out the year are drawing down the forecast for the year to -2.8% total truckload (-0.4% Spot, -3.8% Contract - y/y % change). However, the weaker than expected numbers are creating larger projections in y/y change for 2025. Total truckload is now showing an increase of 4.1% for ’25 (7.8% Spot, 2.4% Contract – y/y % change)
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Market Forecast
Lower fuel costs were one of the few pluses in the recent Trucking Conditions Index. Volume and low active utilization continued to create a drag as well as the high capital expenditures for equipment purchased during an increased demand cycle at higher costs. Conditions are still projected to improve throughout 2025 with just a couple negative conditions remaining on the horizon.
Life At Axle
Our Team
We are proud to announce that Axle Logistics has been recognized as the WINNER of the Best Logistics Company in the 2024 Knox Stars Community's Choice Awards! ?? This honor reflects our commitment to excellence and the hard work of our dedicated team. A huge thank you to everyone who voted and supported us along the way. Your trust and encouragement inspire us to continuously improve and provide top-notch services.
Axle Impact
Axle Logistics’ Third Annual Oktoberfest was a huge success! Together, we raised an incredible $40,000 for Isaiah 117 House , directly supporting children in need by providing them with the care they deserve. The day was filled with games, music, and charity-driven fun — featuring everything from stein holding to hammerschlagen, along with traditional Oktoberfest activities! We’re proud to have a team that cares deeply and celebrates together to make a real impact.
Did You Know
The trucking industry plays a vital role in ensuring our Thanksgiving feasts are filled with delicious food. During the holiday season, it’s estimated that over 50 million turkeys are transported across the U.S. to meet the demand! With the average turkey weighing about 15 pounds. This Thanksgiving, let’s give thanks not only for the food on our tables but also for the dedicated truck drivers.
Stay connected, stay driven. See you next month!
Contact: If you have questions about current market conditions or would like more information, connect with our team today!?
Email:[email protected]
Website:www.axlelogistics.com