Navigating the Market: A Level-Headed Approach

As we approach the end of Q1, it’s clear this year is already proving to be a wild ride. Thankfully, this was predicted. Normally, I would wait until the start of Q2 to share insights, but given the concerns we’re seeing, now feels like the right time to check in.

Looking back at my end-of-year letter, some of the trends we anticipated are indeed playing out. If you follow the news today, you might feel like America is either in the best position it’s ever been—or on the brink of collapse. The reality, as always, is somewhere in between. Economies and Markets don’t soar or unravel overnight, and maintaining a level head is key to navigating this season.

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Stoneford’s Long-Term Investment Approach

At Stoneford, we take a long-term approach to portfolio management. We don’t get caught up in daily market fluctuations or short-term trading. Instead, we structure portfolios around three fundamental buckets:

1. Current Cash Flow Needs – Fixed income and bonds

2. Future Cash Flow Needs – Equities (stocks/ETFs)

3. Growth – Private investments, real estate, stocks, bonds, structured notes, and other opportunities

These buckets are informed by your tailored cash flow needs, allowing us to stay focused on long-term trends rather than reacting to short-term volatility.

What We’re Seeing in the Market Right Now

Unlike his first term, where he frequently touted stock market gains, President Trump’s current stance is different. Over the weekend, he acknowledged the potential for economic “pain”—or maybe none at all. Meanwhile, on March 7, 2025, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the economy as entering a “detox period,” shifting from public-driven spending to private-sector spending in pursuit of a more sustainable balance.

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How Has the Market Responded?

? Stocks remain below record highs

? Bond yields are falling

? Private markets are volatile

Key drivers of uncertainty include: tariffs, government layoffs, a slight uptick in inflation (+0.1% over the next year), persistently high prices, and slowing economic growth.

Naturally, this raises the recurring fear of a recession. Some data suggests that risk is real, but now is not the time to overreact. The data is mixed, debt is high, spending is down, but cash levels are also high. It is an odd season.

How We’re Positioning Portfolios

Rather than making aggressive tactical shifts, we are moving from a “buy” mode to a “hold” and appropriately “sell” mode—adjusting to the realities of this next market cycle.?

Our Strategy Includes:

? Raising cash levels to prepare for future opportunities

? Capturing gains where appropriate

? Holding steady in key areas while evaluating the right time to reinvest

We aren’t selling the whole portfolio, we are tax efficiently trimming. This creates a posture of readiness through the short term pain.

This isn’t about panic—it’s about posture.

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What Should You Do Next?

Schedule a portfolio review with our team this Spring. Now is the time to assess your financial plan and ensure your portfolio is tailored to your needs. We’re not in “freak-out mode”—we’re in “ready-to-go” mode.

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Let’s stay focused and move forward strategically!

Investment advisory services offered through Mutual Advisors, LLC DBA Stoneford Advisors, an SEC registered investment adviser. Stoneford Advisors, nor any of its members, are tax accountants or legal attorneys, and do not provide tax or legal advice. For tax or legal advice, you should consult your tax or legal professional. Insurance, Tax, Estate, Business Services offered through Stoneford Creative, LLC and Auxford LLC, DBA Auxilio Essentials. No client is required to use Stoneford Creative, LLC and/or Auxford LLC, DBA Auxilio Essentials. Stoneford Creative, LLC is not affiliated with Mutual Advisors, LLC.