Navigating Market Cycles: From Bulls to Nvidia – AI Edition
Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA
Follow me for posts about investing, life, and philosophy. I help people navigate difficult patches in the economy and markets, so they can enjoy the good ones.
Buckle up! Over the next few weeks, I’m embarking on something I’ve never done before—I’ve enlisted AI to inform, educate, and maybe even entertain you.
I took several essays I wrote and asked my bestie AI to transform them into a radio show-style conversation between two hosts. (The AI tool I used is Notebook LM, a product created by Google.)
I didn’t write the scripts myself. Here were my instructions to the AI: “Here’s my essay. I’m taking a break from writing. Educate, inform and entertain my readers.” That’s it. If what you hear doesn’t surprise you—or even shock you to your socks—I don’t know what will. The future is here.
These essays are just as relevant today as when I first wrote them this summer.
You can read the original of the first essay here. Be sure to leave your comments about the conversation you’re about to hear, and feel free to share it with friends, enemies, or even random strangers.
In this episode, my AI friends will discuss stock market math, sideways markets, the role of P/E in market cycles, impact of interest rates on P/E, economic analysis, Magnificent Seven stocks, NVIDIA, and a lot more.
I’ve?written in depth about Franz Schubert and Franz Liszt in the past. It is hard to find two more opposite composers. Schubert, who was born in Austria, was a shy, sickly, secluded, classical music addict: He composed nonstop, producing an unheard-of amount of music, over 6,000 pieces during his very short life (he died at 31). For Schubert the piano was just another instrument. Most of his piano music is not technically challenging because, as he himself admitted, he was not a great pianist. (Read more on Schubert?here).?
And then there’s the other Franz, Hungarian-born Franz Liszt. For him piano was not just another instrument; it was his life and his passion. He was a piano virtuoso. Liszt traveled around Europe and gave thousands of concerts (sometimes more than one a day). He was the first music star – before Elvis, Michael Jackson, and the Rolling Stones. Women fainted in his presence; he turned boring classical music performances into a show. Liszt’s music for piano was technically demanding, as he was trying to push piano playing to previously unattainable levels.?(Read more on Liszt?here).?
Why I am comparing Schubert to Liszt? I recently stumbled upon Schubert’s?Wanderer Fantasy,?and I was shocked how Lisztonian it sounded. It had hints of Schubert’s melancholy and shyness, but then there are huge splashes of Liszt’s piano on steroids. This is Schubert’s most technically demanding work. He once said “The devil may play it” – he was probably thinking of Liszt when he composed it (though Liszt was only 11 years old at the time).?
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Franz Liszt was fascinated by this piece: He transcribed it for piano and orchestra, adding another dimension of lyricism and melancholy, and ironically making it more Schubertian.
Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA
I am the CEO at IMA, an investment firm that designs all-terrain portfolios that survive the worst markets and thrive in good ones. (Get our company brochure in your inbox here, or simply visit our website).
In a brief moment of senility, Forbes magazine?called me “the new Benjamin Graham.”
I’ve written two books on investing, which were published by John Wiley & Sons and have been translated into eight languages. (But you can learn the basics of my approach to investing by reading the 6 Commandments of Value Investing.
My first non-investing book, Soul in the Game, is available to order here. You can get 4 entirely new chapters (not found in the book) by forwarding your purchase receipt to [email protected].
And if you prefer listening, audio versions of my articles are published weekly at investor.fm.
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