"Navigating High-Performance Computing: Intel's Roadmap Shifts Prompt Developers and Manufacturers to Move To Nvidia or AMD"

Intel has made significant adjustments to its high-performance computing (HPC) strategy, signaling a notable performance gap between Intel and competitors such as AMD and NVIDIA. In a recent announcement, Intel unveiled a shift in its HPC efforts, extending until at least 2026. The current Xeon Max, based on Sapphire Rapids with HBM, and the Ponte Vecchio OAM GPU are indicated as the final components of the legacy "pre-XPU" HPC platform architecture.

Although Intel did not explicitly state a three-year lag behind AMD and NVIDIA in the XPU HPC domain, the implications are evident from the details provided. The discontinuation of the Rialto Bridge and the upcoming Falcon Shores XPU/GPU in 2025, replacing the Max Series, convey that Intel will not introduce a new GPU offering between 2023 and 2025.

Intel clarified its roadmap, stating that Falcon Shores in 2025 will be a GPU architecture focused on GPU cores, deviating from the traditional CPU-centric approach. This marks a departure from the conventional HPC architecture, where CPUs are integrated with accelerators like GPUs. Unlike AMD and NVIDIA, whose upcoming architectures (Instinct MI300 and Grace Hopper, respectively) feature co-packaged CPU, GPU, and memory, Intel's Falcon Shores in 2025 is projected to be GPU-focused without CPU cores.

The shift towards co-packaging CPU, GPU, accelerators, and memory is driven by the need to enhance interconnect speeds while minimizing power consumption in large-scale HPC systems. The traditional model of moving data between different components results in wasted memory and increased power usage. By integrating components using advanced methods, co-packaging aims to optimize interconnect speeds at a lower power curve, allowing more of the power budget to be allocated for computation rather than data movement. TSMC CoWos technology with 3d stacking enables a full integrating single "device' CoWos is shipping in high volume now for six months. Intel is just now finishing its Foveros plant in Rio Rancho. Significant volumes/demand are 12 months away.

In summary, Intel's announcement indicates a strategic move away from the conventional HPC architecture, with Falcon Shores in 2025 anticipated to be a GPU-centric offering. This decision places Intel behind AMD and NVIDIA in the next-gen architecture race until at least 2026. Despite the significance of the HPC market, Intel's decision to skip a generation suggests a focus on saving development resources, relying on Ponte Vecchio to compete with NVIDIA's H100, Grace-Hopper, and AMD's Instinct MI300 until Falcon Shores is expected to be ready in 2025. Ultimately, the dynamic shifts in Intel's roadmap have led developers and manufacturers to increasingly consider placing their bets on either the Nvidia or AMD basket. The slower time to market, potential lower revenues, and the specter of uncompetitive products associated with Intel's evolving strategy are compelling stakeholders to reevaluate their reliance on Intel technologies.

Developers, faced with uncertainties and delays in Intel's offerings, increasingly find it more pragmatic to focus on optimizing their applications for Nvidia's or AMD's architectures. The co-packaging innovations and synchronized CPU-GPU-memory approaches from these competitors are gaining traction, making them more attractive options for developers aiming for timely and competitive solutions.

Manufacturers and end user in turn, are reconsidering their product portfolios and partnerships, leaning towards Nvidia or AMD to mitigate the risks associated with Intel's extended timeline. The ability of Nvidia and AMD to deliver co-packaged components and cutting-edge architectures aligns with the industry's demand for more efficient and integrated solutions.

This shift towards the Nvidia or AMD basket reflects a strategic response to the challenges posed by Intel's roadmap adjustments. It highlights the industry's adaptability and underscores the importance of aligning with vendors that offer stable and competitive solutions. As developers and manufacturers increasingly hedge their bets on Nvidia or AMD, the landscape of high-performance computing continues to evolve, shaping the future dynamics of the market.