Navigating the Fall Dip: How Seasonal Trends Shape NYC's Cultural Landscape

It’s officially fall again. Most tourists have left the city, local New Yorkers are back from their vacations, school is in session, and cultural institutions & attractions are feeling the seasonal change. Due to these typical factors, September and October weeks are some of the lowest-ranked weeks of the year on our AKA Seasonal Index in terms of attendance and revenue across all types of cultural experiences—though not quite as challenging as January & February when snowbirds are out of town. This is often because September ushers in new seasons across cultural institutions with new exhibitions, new shows, and new attractions opening, creating excitement with locals. Broadway Week is one solution on Broadway to buck the September trends, and it did work again this year, helping to drive overall sales +7% (or +5% on average per show) during 9/15/24 compared to the previous week.?

Since the pandemic began, it had been a question mark if even the typically strong weeks (i.e., the holidays, the school breaks) would achieve similar levels of attendance as we had in 2019. It turns out, for the most part, the previously marked high weeks have been able to command the same, if not more, attendance now vs. 2019, even without some of the key audiences that haven’t fully gotten back to going out as frequently as they once did. With Broadway as a key example, we’ve found that twenty-four weeks in 2024 thus far have surpassed the same 2019 weeks’ average performance weekly gross in real dollars (though only two when adjusting for inflation). Twenty-one weeks in 2024 thus far have surpassed the same 2019 weeks’ average performance attendance (taking into account which shows are in which theaters), and 1 week in 2024 has outperformed 2019 in overall performance. It’s worth a celebration that the spring & summer (and holiday) weeks have made great strides to return to previous levels, but on the other side of the coin, the lows in September, October, January, and February were even lower than 2019.??

I call out these points not to stoke fear for the fall or next winter, but to remind us all that people’s interests and behaviors with live experiences are habitual enough that we can use historical data to help guide our goals, prepare our marketing plans, and adjust expectations well in advance. That’s not to say we can’t disrupt the seasonality—many amazing events & experiences have been able to—but it does mean we can use the high-level diagnostic tool to compare our projects to, to then further narrow in on specific opportunities and challenges.?