Navigating Dutch National Interests Amid US-Germany Tensions and Far-Right Resurgence

Executive Summary

The Netherlands stands at a pivotal crossroads amid rising geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and the resurgence of far-right movements. To navigate these challenges, Dutch foreign policy must draw upon its historic strengths—embodied in the roles of merchant, diplomat, and missionary—to safeguard national interests and contribute to regional stability.

This strategy prioritizes reinforcing economic resilience through diversified trade, innovation, and robust supply chains (the merchant), fostering inclusive and pragmatic diplomacy to bridge divides and maintain cohesion (the diplomat), and upholding democratic values and regional stability in the face of rising polarization (the missionary).

Key recommendations include:

• Economic Resilience: Diversify energy and trade dependencies, enhance R&D in sustainable and defense technologies, and build logistical redundancies to strengthen supply chains.
• Diplomatic Leadership: Mediate between U.S. and EU priorities, strengthen NATO collaboration without over-reliance on U.S. systems, and engage third-party nations like Turkey to secure strategic partnerships.
• Domestic Stability: Implement bipartisan national security frameworks, increase public transparency to foster trust, and invest in civic resilience to counter divisive narratives.

By integrating economic pragmatism, diplomatic engagement, and value-based leadership, the Netherlands can mitigate internal fragmentation and external pressures. This approach positions the Netherlands as a stabilizing force in Europe, capable of leading by example in an era of heightened uncertainty

Introduction

The geopolitical landscape is witnessing profound shifts as far-right movements gain momentum across the Western world. The Netherlands, strategically positioned as a logistics and trade hub, faces unique challenges as it navigates potential scenarios shaped by developments in the United States and Germany.

Recent events, including Elon Musk’s controversial engagement with Alice Weidel, leader of Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), have intensified debates about the direction of Western democracies. Musk’s critique of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and perceived endorsement of the AfD amplify a narrative portraying Germany as subservient to US hegemony[^1][^2][^3]. These tensions come at a pivotal moment, with the possibility of a far-right resurgence shaping Western democracies.

Adding to the complexity is the Nord Stream 2 pipeline issue. Originally intended to transport natural gas from Russia to Germany, the project has been a focal point of geopolitical tension. Its construction was completed in 2021 but was halted due to political controversies and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The sabotage of the pipeline in 2022 further complicated matters, leading to significant environmental and economic repercussions[^4].

The US has repeatedly pressured NATO countries to increase their defense budgets, often insisting that these funds be spent on US military equipment. This stance, coupled with the US opposition to the formation of PESCO, has been perceived by some as an imbalanced relationship, where one party feels compelled to comply with demands despite potential drawbacks. Such behavior provides a compelling narrative for the AfD, reinforcing its claims that Germany is merely a “slave” to US interests, and exacerbating domestic discontent over the perceived subordination of German sovereignty[^8]. This critique aligns with perspectives highlighting NATO’s role in maintaining U.S. dominance in Europe and the challenges this poses for European autonomy[^9]. This narrative is further supported by criticisms from international relations scholars such as John Mearsheimer, who argue that NATO expansion and Europe's reliance on the U.S. limit the region's ability to pursue independent foreign policies.

Emerging Geopolitical Scenarios

The potential convergence of a Trump-led White House, possibly featuring Elon Musk in a strategic role, with an AfD-led German government presents two primary scenarios: a Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA) and a Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA).

Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA)

A Trump-Musk administration would likely double down on “America First” policies, emphasizing economic protectionism and pressuring Europe to increase defense spending, often with expectations of purchasing American military hardware. Simultaneously, an AfD-led Germany, while disruptive to EU cohesion, might stop short of pursuing GEREXIT in the immediate term.

In this scenario, the Netherlands—a critical EU member and NATO ally—would face heightened pressure to adapt. The US focus on unilateralism and Germany’s nationalist tilt could weaken EU decision-making, requiring the Netherlands to adopt a proactive role in bridging transatlantic divides while shoring up intra-EU partnerships.

Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA)

The alignment of a Trump-Musk White House and an AfD-led Germany pursuing GEREXIT could precipitate the dissolution of the EU. Such fragmentation would exacerbate geopolitical vulnerabilities, including restricted access to critical resources, economic instability, and weakened collective defense. A fractured Europe—reminiscent of the conditions leading to World War I—could see nations vying for dominance, with external actors like Russia and China exploiting the vacuum.

If a far-right cabinet also governs the Netherlands, as is currently the case under the PVV, isolationist policies could amplify these risks. Such a government might deprioritize European cohesion in favor of nationalistic policies, further destabilizing the EU. Under these conditions, the Netherlands must work to balance domestic political pressures with the necessity of preventing the disintegration of the European project. Strengthening economic resilience and leveraging international partnerships, even within the constraints of far-right governance, will be critical to safeguarding its national interests.

Key Risks for the Netherlands

1. Trade Disruptions: Escalating US-Germany tensions could lead to new trade barriers, sanctions, or shifts in global trade routes, directly impacting Dutch exports and imports[^5].
2. Investment Volatility: Political instability could deter foreign direct investment from key partners like the US and Germany, undermining the Netherlands’ economic resilience[^6].
3. Energy Security Challenges: The Nord Stream 2 sabotage in 2022 underscored Europe’s energy vulnerabilities. For the Netherlands, diversifying energy sources is essential to mitigate similar risks[^7].

Strategic Imperatives for the Netherlands

To navigate these turbulent times, the Netherlands must adopt a multi-layered approach that balances economic resilience, diplomatic pragmatism, and strategic foresight.

1. Preserve Strategic Autonomy

The Netherlands must lead efforts to maintain EU cohesion, even in the face of rising nationalist pressures that threaten to fragment collective decision-making. As a key EU member with a strong economic and diplomatic foundation, the Netherlands is well-positioned to mediate between divergent national interests and foster trust among EU partners.

A core element of this leadership is diversifying trade and energy dependencies to mitigate vulnerabilities tied to transatlantic or intra-European instability. Strengthening partnerships with emerging markets and investing in renewable energy projects, such as green hydrogen initiatives and LNG terminals, can reduce reliance on external suppliers, reinforcing economic resilience and supporting EU decarbonization efforts. Additionally, expanding trade networks beyond traditional partners—particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America—can hedge against economic disruptions.

The Netherlands can further bolster EU cohesion by championing joint procurement initiatives, coordinated strategic reserves, and investments in critical supply chains. These measures not only enhance Europe’s autonomy in energy and defense but also position the Netherlands as a leader in sustainable and inclusive trade policy. By reducing external dependencies and mitigating internal fragmentation, the Netherlands can balance domestic priorities with its commitment to a united EU, reinforcing its leadership amid evolving geopolitical challenges.

2. Proactive Diplomacy

To safeguard Dutch interests, engagement with both the US and Germany is essential. By acting as a mediator, the Netherlands can foster stability while addressing hardline policies. Additionally, the Netherlands should reassess its relationships with third-party nations, such as Turkey, with whom it has historically had a contentious relationship. Strengthening ties with Turkey could foster mutual benefits and open avenues for cooperation, particularly in areas like energy security and regional stability.

This dynamic becomes particularly relevant from the perspectives of the US and Germany, as Turkey’s geopolitical importance directly impacts transatlantic and European stability. However, challenges such as Turkey’s firm stance on the YPG/PKK and its potential military intervention in Syria complicate this equation. NATO allies, including the US, Germany, and the Netherlands, have differing views on these issues, which underscores the complexity of aligning interests while maintaining regional stability.

Recent agreements, such as Shell’s 10-year LNG supply deal with BOTA? to deliver 4 billion cubic meters of gas annually starting in 2027[^10], highlight Dutch industry involvement in Turkey’s energy landscape. Shell’s ongoing partnership with Turcas Petrol also reflects sustained Dutch engagement in Turkey’s downstream energy market[^11]. While these collaborations can strengthen energy security and open new markets for Dutch companies, they also require careful navigation of broader geopolitical dynamics, particularly in the context of NATO and EU energy policies. Pragmatic engagement with Turkey could help the Netherlands address regional challenges, foster transatlantic cohesion, and safeguard its strategic priorities.

In the face of weak domestic leadership, leveraging experienced figures such as former Prime Minister Mark Rutte could present both opportunities and challenges. Rutte’s extensive experience in navigating EU and transatlantic dynamics positions him as a potential ambassador to bridge divides in complex geopolitical scenarios. His outreach to Turkey as the first country visited in his role as NATO Secretary General signaled a willingness to reconcile and strengthen relationships critical to regional stability. His deep diplomatic network and understanding of the geopolitical landscape could help the Netherlands maintain strategic coherence and mediate between opposing factions within NATO and the EU.

However, it is important to acknowledge that Rutte's legacy is not without controversy. During his tenure as Prime Minister, significant social and governance issues came to light, such as the childcare benefits scandal, where the Dutch Tax Authority disproportionately targeted families with dual nationalities, leading to accusations of institutional discrimination. Additionally, austerity policies under his leadership have been criticized for widening the socio-economic gap, contributing to domestic polarization. Public statements on integration that were perceived as exclusionary by some also raised concerns about fostering societal divisions.

These issues have shaped public sentiment and could influence how Rutte is perceived in both domestic and international arenas. While his diplomatic expertise may serve as a stabilizing force on the global stage, addressing these historical grievances is essential to rebuilding public trust and ensuring that the Netherlands’ mediating role is credible and inclusive.

3. Reinforce Economic Resilience

Investing in sustainable industries, advanced technologies, and robust infrastructure will strengthen the Netherlands’ economic foundation. This resilience will be vital in navigating geopolitical fragmentation. To strengthen economic resilience, the Netherlands must focus on diversification, innovation, and strategic partnerships. Key actions include:

• Diversifying Energy and Trade: Invest in European energy projects like TANAP to reduce dependency on U.S. LNG and compensate for Nord Stream losses. Expand trade partnerships with emerging markets to hedge against U.S.-EU tensions and potential GEREXIT impacts.
• Strengthening Domestic Innovation: Boost R&D in sustainable industries, defense capabilities, and unmanned systems to foster a self-reliant defense economy and mitigate reliance on U.S. military exports.
• Supply Chain Resilience: Establish redundancy in logistics routes, leveraging rail and maritime alternatives to bypass geopolitical chokepoints, ensuring access to critical resources.
• Engaging in Strategic Partnerships: Reconcile with pivotal nations like Turkey to secure energy transit routes and enhance diplomatic leverage within NATO and EU frameworks.

4. Address Domestic Polarization

A far-right Dutch cabinet must avoid divisive policies that could weaken international alliances. Bipartisan approaches to national security and economic policy are essential to maintaining stability. To mitigate domestic polarization, the Netherlands must foster unity through inclusive governance, transparent policies, and strategic communication. Key actions include:

• Bipartisan Security Framework: Establish cross-party agreements on national security, economic policy, and defense investments to prevent abrupt shifts and maintain international credibility.
• Public Engagement and Transparency: Implement transparent decision-making processes for key policies, particularly in defense spending and international agreements, to build public trust and counter far-right narratives.
• National Resilience Programs: Promote educational and civic initiatives that emphasize democratic values, economic resilience, and informed public discourse to reduce susceptibility to divisive rhetoric.
• Strengthening Institutional Integrity: Ensure institutions remain independent and resilient against political influence, reinforcing checks and balances to maintain public confidence.

5. Strengthen NATO Collaboration

Amid potential EU fragmentation, NATO will remain the cornerstone of collective defense. The Netherlands must deepen its commitment to NATO’s strategic objectives while advocating for balanced burden-sharing. To bolster NATO collaboration, the Netherlands must align defense initiatives with collective goals while advocating for balanced contributions. Key actions include:

• Support European Defense Integration: Strengthen participation in NATO programs that enhance interoperability without over-reliance on U.S. systems, reinforcing Europe’s strategic autonomy.
• Advocate for Balanced Burden-Sharing: Promote equitable defense spending that prioritizes European-made capabilities, ensuring contributions are sustainable and aligned with national interests.
• Enhance Multinational Exercises: Lead joint NATO exercises focused on hybrid warfare, cyber resilience, and EMSO, positioning the Netherlands as a critical contributor in emerging defense domains.
• Maintain Diplomatic Leadership: Act as a mediator within NATO to bridge U.S.-EU policy gaps, fostering cohesion amid political shifts that threaten alliance unity.

Lessons from History

The potential dissolution of the EU under GEREXIT echoes the geopolitical vulnerabilities that preceded World War I—characterized by resource constraints, heightened tensions, and fragmented alliances. Avoiding a repeat of history requires proactive strategies and international cooperation. Key lessons for the Netherlands include:

1. Preventing Fragmentation through Multilateral Cooperation: The web of bilateral agreements that failed to prevent World War I highlights the danger of disjointed alliances. Conversely, the creation of NATO and the EU after WWII demonstrated that robust multilateral institutions can foster collective stability. The Netherlands must strengthen its support for EU and NATO cohesion while discouraging nationalist-driven fragmentation that could isolate member states.
2. Securing Resource Access and Economic Resilience: Resource constraints and economic rivalries were key triggers of early 20th-century conflicts. Post-WWII Europe avoided a similar fate through economic integration and shared growth. The Netherlands must safeguard access to critical resources by diversifying supply chains, participating in energy projects, and fostering partnerships that reduce dependency on unstable regions.
3. Reinforcing Diplomacy to De-escalate Tensions: Heightened political tensions between great powers fueled the outbreak of World War I. By contrast, Cold War diplomacy successfully de-escalated conflicts through sustained dialogue and mediation. The Netherlands, with its legacy of diplomatic pragmatism, must continue to act as a mediator between the U.S., Germany, and other EU partners to mitigate rising tensions.
4. Championing Unity to Counter Polarization: Nationalist rhetoric in the early 20th century weakened political cohesion, leading to disunity and conflict. Post-WWII European integration demonstrated the power of shared values in fostering long-term peace. The Netherlands must actively promote democratic values, cohesion, and unity within the EU to counteract divisive narratives and ensure regional stability.

Conclusion

As far-right movements reshape the political landscape and geopolitical tensions intensify, the Netherlands finds itself at a pivotal juncture. The enduring balance of Dutch foreign policy—embodied by the merchant, diplomat, and missionary—is more crucial than ever.

To navigate these challenges, the Netherlands must reinforce its economic resilience by securing access to critical resources, investing in sustainable industries, and expanding global trade partnerships (the merchant). Pragmatic and inclusive diplomacy is essential to bridge divides, mediate between transatlantic and European stakeholders, and foster multilateral cohesion (the diplomat). At the same time, the Netherlands must champion democratic values and regional stability, countering divisive narratives and fostering unity within the EU and NATO (the missionary).

By pursuing this balanced approach, the Netherlands can address domestic polarization, mitigate external pressures, and assert its role as a stabilizing force in Europe. Through strategic engagement and cohesive partnerships, it can lead by example, demonstrating resilience and foresight in an era defined by uncertainty and fragmentation.

References:

1. US News
2. Politico
3. MSN
4. Wikipedia
5. CBS - Trade
6. CBS - Investment
7. CBS - Energy
8. Analysis of NATO's Role in Europe
9. Why the Ukraine Crisis is the Wests Fault
10. Oil & Gas Middle-East (2024)
11. Invest in Turkey (2024)