Nature Protection in 2045 - The Impending Necessity of Nature Funding

The main body of this post is to paint a 2045 vision of the world, and what needed to happen, in order for humanity to restore Nature and abate the worst of the GHG-climate polycrisis. The reader is then returned to the present for today’s set of recommendations and actions, but with some new 2045 context. Of course it is just one possible vision, perhaps even far fetched from today's perspective. But hopefully one that sheds some light on the choices to be made to resolve today’s problems.

“The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Create it.”

Attributed to Peter Drucker and Abraham Lincoln

Nature Protection in 2045

Imagine a world in 2045, twenty years from now, that had succeeded in reversing land degradation practices and restoring nature. A world where we had created huge Nature Protection Areas (NPAs), protected by the laws and security of national states and the international community. Both on land and the sea, these protected areas have grown to cover 30% of habitable land and 50% of oceans, including all key biodiversity areas.

In 2045, designated NPAs are recorded and accounted for in national natural capital databases. They include the majority of the world’s forests, wetlands, grasslands, marine and coastal areas, as well as green zones within and around cities and towns.

Large-scale restoration and conservation projects are now carried out all over the planet. There is ample finance for Nature restoration, in preference to other commercial activities.

The oceans are better protected, and marine life is recovering from its 2020s lows. Ecosystems have recovered, fisheries are sustainably managed, and dead zones have been mitigated. Coral reefs, mangroves, seagrasses, kelp forests and the deep sea have been preserved and are recovering well. All are contributing to limiting the impacts of a changing climate.

Many protected areas have already been restored to good condition and are no longer degraded. They are once again increasing in biodiversity, with species recovering and the overall stock of natural capital increasing for the first time in living memory. The world’s forests and soils continue to absorb and store away carbon. The ocean also remains a major carbon and heat sink - absorbing 30% of anthropogenic CO2 and 90% of the excess heat emitted into the atmosphere.

Humanity is living with a much greater respect for Nature. Environmental governance is now globally integrated. The world’s NPAs are a major priority - sustainably managed for long-term conservation and sustainable production.

Climate change is still a long-term problem and temperatures are still higher than desirable. Humanity remains in a race to mitigate the Equilibrium Climate Response. But huge progress has been made to restore Nature, its ecosystems, its cooling and carbon sink capabilities. Incredible progress has also been made in the transition to clean energies. Fossil fuels remain a feedstock in the new energy system, but for new processes and technologies that largely avoid the emissions.

Ocean acidification has been addressed through a number of large-scale alkalinisation projects. And the once-feared massive loss of ocean life has been averted, or at the very least postponed. GHG concentrations remain a fundamental problem - but there are now stratospheric GHG-neutralisation and climate intervention strategies that will reach final deployment stage in the next few years.

Temperature projections are higher but better understood in 2045, and humanity has accepted the new reality. We must live in harmony with Nature and use Nature to cool the planet as much as possible. But there is still much to be done. The goal is to protect still higher percentages of land and sea. Global NPA Targets for 2055 are set at 40% of all habitable land and 70% of all oceans.

How did we finance this remarkable turnaround in Nature?

It started in the 2020s with a greater understanding being formed about the ‘Hothouse Earth’ pathway that we were on. The need for much greater funding for Nature was the only real proactive solution, alongside decarbonisation and infrastructure initiatives which had previously taken priority. If we were to get back on track – meaning a high probability of survival - then greater funding for Nature was the start.

Looking at the world’s challenges in the mid-2020s – large levels of debt, climate change, population growth, geopolitical instability. Large-scale investment was not reaching the places where it was most needed. On a global scale the opportunities and the population for new markets were all in the Emerging markets, yet the world was under-invested there by trillions of dollars per year.

Key drivers of Nature degradation at that time included:

Land- and sea-use change - Ecosystem conversion pressures from agriculture, unsustainable forest management, urbanization, industrial developments, and transport networks were the biggest sources worldwide, leading to habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation.

Unsustainable use of nature - Overexploitation and destructive harvesting practices were a critical threat to ecosystems. Overexploitation was a particularly significant threat to marine ecosystems. Unsustainable water use for agriculture, cities, energy and industry put further pressure on biodiversity and ecosystems.

Waste and pollution - Pollution was and remains a growing threat to terrestrial, inland water, coastal and marine ecosystems. This includes air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, untreated urban and rural waste, plastic pollution, pollution from nutrients (such as nitrogen and phosphorous), and other pollutants from industries, mining, and agricultural activities.

Such degradatory practices had run unchecked for many decades, both worsening the effects of climate change and reducing Nature’s ability to restore the balance.

"Our true nationality is mankind". “Adapt or perish, now as ever, is Nature's inexorable imperative”. H.G. Wells

The Closing of the Nature Funding Gap (2026-2031) – “Existential COPs”

To meet all of the Nature restoration, decarbonization and circular economy goals, a multi-trillion-dollar annual investment gap needed to be filled. No one really knew the exact scale of the funding problem – just that it was much larger than the current funding capabilities and ambition, and needed a structural solution i.e. funding that would be met automatically by system design, and not subject to the typical piecemeal annual negotiations cycle.

Such an amount appeared beyond the capacity of the UN COPs and related negotiations. There was little time left for action. In order to find agreement for such a structural solution, a new “deadly serious” forum would be needed. The three year “Existential COP” was introduced - with the sole purpose of driving higher-level agreement among nations to avoid climate disaster.

• The first Existential COP resulted in a major breakthrough - long-term commitments to pay down carbon debts as matched funding for Nature Restoration.
• The second Existential COP formalised the legal agreements and creation of the new Protected Environmental Assets system, which in 2045 now governs the management and funding of the majority of the world’s Nature Protected Areas.

Perhaps unexpectedly, it was the "new money” (oil producing nations) investing alongside the “old money” (developed world), that created the impetus for action. With the developed world prepared to create a set of environmental taxes on global assets and transactions, all actors could see the potential for a workable mutualisation of Nature restoration costs and risks.

"You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today".

Abraham Lincoln

Dealing with past obligations - A centralised Nature Positive funding system.

No single government or region could be entrusted with the funding and management of an international NPA system. It required a global “whole of society” approach – a Global Restoration Framework. Nations would naturally want to fund their own National Funds and National NPAs first and last.

But the real issues were not local - they were in avoiding the “tragedy of the commons”. International areas of global importance – such as the Amazon basin, the Congo basin and the Siberian tundra, which were under national jurisdiction(s) but not guaranteed to be protected. Similarly for the “High Seas” and other international waters, again not guaranteed to be protected. These were all NPAs that would require considerable funding, in order to achieve the large-scale “best efforts” protection of Nature required, as part of a global coordinated Nature protection framework.

The Great Restoration of Nature

In order to force the restorative pathway for Nature, it needed four further developments:

• a Long-Term Environmental Funds (Common Wealth) sector – dedicated multilateral climate funds with international legal and finance backing – to protect Nature from the behavioural risks of individual governments. That meant international laws and commitments governing ecocide, the protection of Nature and the Future Generations, and funding guarantees. Without legal protections and funding guarantees, none of what followed would have been possible. ?The Environmental Funds sector became the ‘true North’ for sustainable and ESG investors – instead of investing in ‘thematic’ portfolios that were not much different from ‘generalist’ share indices, investment in real assets / natural capital funds became mainstream. Cognisant of the downside risks to existing financial portfolios posed by a deterioration in Nature, investors sought the “double dip” returns of investing in Nature /real assets (with guaranteed payments for ecosystem services) and restoration-based gains (e.g. gains in bio-productivity, regeneration of valued ecosystem services, new “bio businesses” and improved valuations for NPA and near-NPA assets).

• The formal valuation of natural capital – Owning natural capital assets might have seemed like a risky investment in the 2020s, as deterioration in value could come from wildfires, floods and the like – a self-reinforcing reason to do nothing. Ultimately the world’s largest nations and balance sheets saw sense – creating and funding the Global Restoration Framework for natural capital assets. This was key to being able to own Nature assets for the long-term, alongside natural capital accounting frameworks at government and enterprise level. With Nature now being properly valued, long term investors were finally able to capture the huge risk premium offered by natural capital investments, safe in the knowledge that funding for Nature protection and restoration was guaranteed, and that their Nature assets were high yielding and a good match against ongoing actuarial liabilities.

• Waste and Pollution penalties – With new legislation in the late 2020s and new technology-based remote monitoring solutions, companies (and regulators) began to calculate and report with increasing transparency the effects of their activities on nature. Based on the new levels of transparency, and the escalating penalties for non-compliance, the process of cleaning up value chains became progressively easier. Pollution and waste in value chains became more visible and importantly, easier to police and tax relative to industry norms. Corporations have adjusted quickly to the new reality. The switch from profits with taxable negative externalities (taxable pollution and waste, including short-life products) to truly sustainable profits. Circular economic models became much more attractive, with an acceleration of investments into the circular economy for early adopters. Waste-to-X and Carbon-to-X also became important sectors by the mid-to-late 2030s.? The adoption of circular business models by 2045 is around 80% complete.

• Technological and Infrastructural solutions – Technology has proved crucial to the green transition and circular economy. Ocean alkalinisation technologies are now deployed in the open ocean, with proven effectiveness and a formal COP reporting and review process. Advanced AI satellite and drone monitoring technologies are now used routinely worldwide - for a wide range of restoration activities, environmental audits, real-time measurements and weather predictions. New processes and technologies break down fossil fuels (mostly gas) as feedstock, breaking them into their constituents with zero emissions. The world’s vehicles mostly run on a combination of hydrogen and batteries, and gas-battery hybrids. New stratospheric GHG-neutralisation and climate intervention strategies are expected to reach final deployment stage by 2048. New water pipeline and desalination infrastructure has made water the largest industry by value. Many nations now have back-up water systems and infrastructure for times of water stress, and to ensure their NPAs are water-sufficient and protected, continuing to deliver the expected ecosystem services. ?

Investment Portfolio Allocations in 2045

Going back to the 18th century, financial capital was very scarce and natural capital was abundant. Simple economics dictated that there would be strong returns for scarce financial capital and low returns on the abundant natural resources.

On the same basis and ignoring inflation, expected returns on financial capital have become lower and lower, now that it has become more abundant. Conversely, expected returns from natural capital are higher, now that it is (i) in relative scarcity and (ii) needed on as large a scale as possible, to ameliorate the effects of climate change and to feed over 9.5 billion people.

The clean energy transition provides further insights. The world has spent around $100 trillion over 30 years, to finance the Energy Transition and Global Grid Interconnection programmes. Ignoring subsidies, returns from clean energy have reduced over the years, as global interconnections have led to increasingly cheap solar baseload capacity.

• Long-term investors are now heavily invested in the Nature solution – and are long the benefits of ecosystem services and resources.
• Governments are also heavily invested in Nature – they are the funders of the Global Framework of Environmental Funds, both directly and through the Global Carbon Debt Liabilities Agreement.
• All investors in Environmental Funds have ridden the wave of Nature Funding, achieving good returns and in the process supporting the most important transition in history – the funding of Nature’s Restoration and averting the climate change disaster. This is risk sharing of the most fundamental kind, by all of those who can afford to invest. And there is still a long way to go.??
• The Nature Asset markets are not priced and traded on screens, only proxies can be traded up and down. Rather they are “long-term value items” – with periodic valuations by environmental audit firms, based on geospatial data and underpinned by their “value to society”. This value is assured in 2045 – as there are guaranteed government and Fund off-takers for the ecosystem services – in the form of payments for ecosystem services (PES), payments for Nature Remediation and/or Restoration (PNR), as well as payments from Tourism, Recreation, Utilities and so on. This system is also by design, to prevent speculation from affecting a system that “had to succeed”.
• Financial markets have evolved to identify and allocate capital to companies who support the Restoration of Nature, and trading activity is nowadays a function of relative valuation and speculation as always, but with the recognition that Nature Assets cannot be traded short-term, only nature-focused companies that have public listings.

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The investment portfolio of 2045 still benefits from the immense demand for natural capital assets. Whereas long-term public pension portfolios were mainly invested in public equities and bonds 20 years ago, real assets and infrastructure assets have seen increasing allocations.

Natural capital assets in 2045 are 20-35% of long-term investment portfolios, showing proper alignment with the value of Nature to the world’s economy.? With typically higher income than that from government or corporate credit, and environmental tax exemption, Natural capital assets offer the attractive upside of the restoration of Nature (steady asset growth with periodic revaluation, income payments from restoration and ecosystem services), combined with the capital security of investments that are tax-advantaged, non-market traded, and underwritten by governments (ongoing government-funding of Environmental sector; trees and bio-productivity are subject to natural capital accounting valuation changes, not traded market volatility).

Natural Capital and Infrastructure Assets are a natural fit for most long-term retirement schemes – both for the solid returns available and the absolute return nature of the investment. Returns are consistent and valuations are not real-time market-driven i.e. there is no inevitable fall due to market exuberance, as the capital values are based on the value of income received /services provided and not a traded market value. Only listed corporates focused on Nature and Infrastructure exhibit price volatility from publicly-traded markets.

The Environmental Funds Sector in 2045

The Environmental Funds sector in 2045 is valued at $300 trillion, about 20% of the global Funds sector ($1200 trillion) and around 1.1 times 2044 global GDP ($260 trillion). For historical reasons a further $500 trillion approx. is invested in Government bonds, mostly long-term green and blue bond issuances linked to Environmental Fund and sub-Fund portfolios.

Environmental restoration and conservation operations in 2045 are financed by a range of centralised payments for Nature services to Environmental Funds, as co-owners of the world’s Nature Protected Areas. The other co-owners being national and international governments, national asset trusts, the NGO and Regulated Environmental Fund sectors and national funds for the future generations.

Carbon debt-for-nature asset swaps

Large principal transactions are financed through carbon debt-for-nature asset swap transactions, whereby Carbon-Contributing Nations and Entities (CCs) make capital payments into long-term Environmental Funds, managed under international laws and long-term contracts. In return the CCs achieve long-term holdings in Nature Protected Assets, together with Nature and carbon credits as cashflow.

Alongside these principal transactions, is the centralised Environmental Taxes System (ETS), under which all entities pay a flat tax for the protection of Nature, with a share of the tax revenues going to the Environmental Funds.

In this way the Remediation and Restoration bill for Nature has increasingly been financed by the Carbon-Contributing Nations and Entities, and matched by Long-Term Environmental Assets. An equitable solution for all involved - polluters pay for their carbon liabilities by investing in Nature, protecting value in their economic assets in the process.

The global environmental budget in 2045 includes income and capital funding from these swaps, giving them a long-term and annual cash surplus, which enables them to fund ongoing activities while bringing further assets under restoration.

Ecosystem services are defined as the benefits that people, including businesses and public entities, derive from ecosystems.

• provisioning services - the products people obtain from ecosystems e.g. food, freshwater, timber, fibres, medicinal plants;
• regulating services - the benefits people obtain from the regulation of ecosystem e.g. services - surface water purification, carbon storage and sequestration, climate regulation, protection from natural hazards;
• cultural services - the nonmaterial benefits people obtain from ecosystems e.g. natural areas that are sacred sites and areas of importance for recreation and aesthetic enjoyment; and
• supporting services - the natural processes that maintain the other services e.g. soil formation, nutrient cycling, primary production.

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The value of Nature, its ecosystems and ecosystem services is by 2045 the most valuable asset in the world. It is not publicly traded. Rather it is held for the long-term benefit of humanity in Environmental funds, trusts and other long-term regulated entities. Such entities are owned and protected under law and regulation - for the benefit of future generations and human necessity. ?

Land protection and the reversal of land degradation remains the focus in 2045. Converting more and more land to programmes of ecosystem restoration and sustainable management. The assessed value of land degradation in 2045 has reduced to $250 billion annually, just 2.5% of the $10 trillion (9% of GDP) fifteen years earlier.

Alongside Nature, Water infrastructure and desalination are also top investment areas in 2045. Water infrastructure has emerged as a necessary global climate back-up solution, with freshwater transport pipelines to minimise evaporation effects, following the Saudi example of the late 2020s. Pipelines supply water to desertified areas and drylands; for groundwater and systems recharge, to areas of drought; and as a back-up supply for agriculture and Nature Protected Areas during dry or drought periods.

Conclusion

Returning to the present year 2024.

We do not live in 2045, not even close. But we could easily achieve a 2045 scenario, if policymakers and nations get "deadly serious" and reach agreement on the required actions and global framework. It does not mean giving up any sovereignty or putting themselves at wider risk – although properly understood, they already bear an existential risk due to planetary warming.

For the Parties to the UNFCCC, the breakthroughs, funding, framework and innovations may come collectively or in individual /regional groups, with some setbacks expected. Of particular note is that a lot of progress was made after the US (under Trump) announced their withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2017.

Given the intense focus today on these issues and the need for solutions across the world, a global scale-up of funding will take place sooner rather than later. And who knows, perhaps even greater ambition will be found at the First “Existential COP” or similarly-described forum in 2025 or 2026?!

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“Whilst we didn’t turn the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome is the beginning of the end .... Now all governments and businesses need to turn these pledges into real-economy outcomes, without delay.”

Simon Stiell, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary

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1.?????? Existing Solutions

Summarising from the Environmental Imperative:

-????????? The existing Earth system problems are interconnected problem sets. The solution sets will be similarly interconnected, through investing in, supporting and replenishing Nature on a mass scale and reversing the long-term declines in natural capital.

The solutions are well known.

• Restoration projects on a massive scale.
• Accelerate the new energy sources that harness nature (and physics)
• Build out technologies to bridge the emissions gap – including climate intervention / GHG neutralisation technologies
• Champion water alongside restoration and carbon - the water cycle is the main offset we have to the greenhouse effect
• Remove industry waste streams and existing wastes from land and oceans
• Build out a global zero waste circular economy - produce in the same way nature does (closed loops, no waste, no toxicity)
• Restore arable land by re-establishing the soil food web in whole regions
• Reforest and revegetate large regions, and re-establish the natural biodiversity of flora and fauna
• Invest in and protect natural capital assets (assets that rely on ecological systems). Protection in many countries e.g. Brazil to include state-assisted protection against illegal operators.
• Build out a global Common Wealth entities industry - a global framework of Environmental Funds, Conservation Trusts and Funds for the Future Generations

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2.?????? The Way Forward

Summarising from last weeks post The 2024 COPs and Climate Funding Solutions:

In order to create the right conditions for greater and more effective global action:

• Acknowledgment that the Climate Emergency is not in the future, it is already here. And there are some extremely scary scenarios as we cross numerous “planetary boundaries” and “tipping points”.
• Global short-term actions from all parties, as all parties are affected.
• Near-unified agreement and action from all nations. A means to achieve effective global agreement and concerted action between as many of the COP Parties as possible.
• In particular, developed nations and all oil-producing nations have to collectively and individually acknowledge the “resources balance sheet” - of which they form a large part and owe their prosperity to - has a colossal carbon debt on it.
• And similarly the “nature balance sheet” - to which we all owe our continued existence - has an equally large carbon hole in it, that must be closed as soon as possible.
• A greater appreciation of what we are failing to address. The underlying science and its longer term implications are not well understood. The reality of the science is that we are already in a “hothouse” scenario – this is due to the global warming response that is still in the pipeline. “Equilibrium climate” scenarios are much hotter but are much further into the future. We can mitigate much of that future heat if we take key planet-wide remedial actions now, to reduce the present GHG and Energy Imbalances.

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?3.?????? “Top Down” Recommendations from 2045

• Work back from the 2045 Investment portfolio and Environmental Governance Framework and put in place what needs to happen today and in the next few years, in order to make that 2045 vision a reality.
• Nature Protection Funding, through Carbon Debt-for-Nature Asset Swaps
• “Environment over Economics” as a Pervading Theme – Increasing Debt /Accepting Carbon Debt, in order to pay for Nature
• Revised Investment regulations that permit long-term holdings in Nature-based assets
• The Closing of the Funding Gap for Nature and Nature in Developing Countries in particular, as a pre-requisite to a) Launch of an Environmental Funds sector; b) New laws and regulations for a huge scale-up in Environmental restoration & governance.
• Nature Assets of Global Importance (NAGI) to be designated as priorities, needing assistance, protection and funding from the international community.
• Funding through Centralised Taxes
• Introduction of New Environmental Taxes on Assets under Management, Corporate Revenues, Financial Transactions, Barrels of Oil, Carbon, Waste, Pollution and “Linear Economy” Activity.
• with Tax Exemptions for Nature, Environmental Funds, Circular Economy Activity, Clean Energy, Clean Grid Transition, and so on.
• An End to Tax Subsidies for Environmentally-Harmful Activities
• Reaching Agreement on Funding and Environmental Governance
• Mutualisation of Risks - All Nations will have problems in the future – heat, drought, flood, storm, degradation, natural disaster, carbon, water, and so on. All Nations must understand that future risks may be orders of magnitude higher than current. All Nations will have their own increasing problems - hence the need to work together and mutualise the risks involved.
• We can reverse / offset the current trends by investing in Nature. The best way to do this is through an international and co-operative Environmental Funds system that is rooted in the protection of Nature and by extension, the Future Generations. They are the ultimate beneficiaries of the system we put in place.
• The developed world needs to do this now. Convincing naysayers to join now may be futile and a block on progress. Start now with 70-80% of the world on board, and make the conversion of the hold-outs a job for the future.

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"Adequate management of agricultural and forestry land uses are amongst the lowest-cost actions that can reduce global warming, and most actions are either neutral cost or of positive net profit to society, requiring no substantial capital investment"

The Economics of Land Degradation Initiative

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4.?????? “Bottom up” Recommendations from 2024

From the Green (and Blue) Bond Principles, for completeness:

• Rehabilitation of degraded lands with native/naturalised species
• Regenerative farming and grazing practices that rebuild soil organic matter, restore soil biodiversity, enhance ecosystem function, preserve native seeds and livestock
• Other activities that focus on restoration of the ecosystem through improved land management and that operate throughout the supply chain.
• Reduction in synthetic fertiliser use to reduce eutrophication; increase biofertilizer use
• Reduction in pesticide use and promotion of bio-solutions
• Switching from monocropping to diversified systems and intercropping to improve resilience and soil quality
• Reduction of tillage and No-till practices
• Production of certified crops/commodities with robust sustainability certifications and audit protocols
• Adoption of innovation and technologies that improve land-use and agricultural practices, such as geospatial data tools and tools to detect soil degradation.
• Alternative production practices, e.g. hydroponics and beef alternatives, to reduce pressure on land and prevent land conversion. Including practices that contribute to wildlife protection, wildlife-friendly practices to improve land management, and reduce meat demand.
• Climate adaptation and resilience measures for agri-business, that also conserve and/or restore ecosystems (e.g. drought-resistant seeds, nutrient cycling, water storage, ecotone levees, floodplain restoration, water storage with watershed restoration or conservation)
• Cultivation of native or naturalised species better adapted to variations in production cycles, water availability and temperatures.
• Use of sustainable agricultural practices / varieties / technology that improve yield and resilience, without increasing environmental footprint
• Supply chain management to promote zero deforestation and Nature positive outcomes
• Measures that achieve marine conservation, greater efficiency and sustainable water use
• Measures that reduce contamination in wetlands or other freshwater bodies
• Production meeting or exceeding best practice certification standards
• Sustainable production, with certification for ecosystem function and resilience
• Regenerative practices: Increase Natural production and restore ecosystems health
• Sustainable practices: Operations compliant with restrictions, off-take and sourcing procedures, consistent with best practice and preventing degradation
• Adoption of practices and technologies in supply chain management to reduce loss, expand access, and reduce transport
• Emerging markets will need to invest $2 trillion p.a. in Infrastructure for the next decade. Much of this will spur improvements in Nature-based Infrastructure solutions – particularly in the Water, Energy and Mining sectors.
• Reducing the negative natural footprint of traditional grey infrastructure, through large-scale integration and displacement of grey infrastructure e.g. restoring mangroves as a cheaper and more effective alternative to sea wall reinforcement
• Integrating natural carbon sequestration and low/zero carbon solutions e.g. reforestation and increased water storage, with improved recharge, reduced flood risk and sedimentation - making water cleaner and cheaper to process, for downstream water treatment plants
• Following international sustainability and green bond standards, with metrics and data
• Integrating nature from a capacity perspective e.g. restoration of forests and natural water flows and permeable pavements - increases water system storage capacity while reducing concrete infrastructure, improves water quality, biodiversity and recreational benefits.
• Generating additional benefits and business by being genuinely green in approach e.g. water security, flood and erosion control, coastal protection / disaster risk reduction, local jobs creation, climate and biodiversity benefits.
• Integrating carbon and other ‘cascades’ and “multipliers”, into business, boosting returns through recycling of carbon and waste (see chart below)

Recent posts:

Nature Protection in 2045 – The Impending Necessity of Nature Funding 27.10.2024?

The Global Call for Ecosystem Restoration continued - In this decisive decade, our challenge is to scale up conservation, restoration and Nature Protected Areas. Greater finance for Nature is the goal - And it may come from some unexpected sources!

The 2024 COPs and Global Climate Financing ????20.10.2024

Global Climate Financing - The 2024 COPs provide a historical opportunity to garner much greater financial commitments for climate action. The way forward is to create a centralised Common Wealth or Environmental Funds sector - with ongoing funding that is automatic, rather than piecemeal and hard-fought.

Restoring Nature’s Green and Blue Lungs ???13.10.2024

A Global Call for Ecosystem Restoration - There has never been a more urgent need to restore ecosystems - both terrestrial and marine - than now. In this decisive decade, the challenge is to scale up the quantity and quality of projects, and redirect greater finance to nature, for as much impact as possible.

Beyond Normal - The Mechanisms behind our Extreme Weather ???3.10.2024

The sheer number and severity of recent extreme weather events is a sign of things to come.? With COP29 just a month away, what are the world's leaders going to do about it?

COP29 and New Climate Finance Initiatives ???2.10.2024

With just 6 weeks to go, the world’s nations are set to decide on a new climate-finance goal, to go beyond the $100 billion per year target set at COP15 in 2009.

Earth's Energy Imbalance and Global Warming Solutions ???25.09.2024

Alongside the massive expansion (and funding) of land restoration and regenerative agriculture schemes and the reduction of CO2, are other solutions on the horizon?

Restoring Natural Capital, Diversity and Resilience ???21.09.2024

Despite a slew of international accords over the past three decades, along with 28 COPs, the rate of decline continues. Focus has diverted away from direct physical solutions, towards technological and market solutions supporting short-term decarbonisation. Yet we have the solutions and available funding.

The Environmental Imperative ???15.09.2024

The?tipping risk elements of the Earth system, their nature and interdependence, and how to mitigate these risks going forwards

Appendices – The World’s Nature Protection Areas (NPAs)

1.???? Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)

2.???? Coral Reefs

3.???? Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs)

Appendix 1

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)

The world’s oceans are essential to life on our planet. They provide humanity’s largest source of protein and absorb around a quarter of our carbon dioxide emissions and most of the world’s excess heat. The oceans also produce half of the world’s oxygen. Billions of people depend on the oceans for their livelihoods, cultures and traditions.

The oceans sustain all life on Earth. Yet they face a multidimensional crisis driven by climate change, pollution (plastics, sewage, industrial/agricultural runoff), overfishing, habitat loss and invasive species.?Marine ecosystems are being impacted by climate change in five major ways: ocean warming; ocean acidification; ocean deoxygenation; sea level rise; and heat stress.

Coastal seas face the broadest array of human pressures and uses, as the rate of pollution and land-use change is greatest near the coast. Through agriculture, aquaculture, settlements, port development and tourism, the ability of coastal ecosystems to accumulate carbon is diminished.

What is a marine protected area (MPA)?

A marine protected area is a defined region designated and managed for the long-term conservation of marine resources, ecosystems services, or cultural heritage.

Submarine canyons and seamounts are some of the most productive habitats in the deep sea, yet few have been explored. The Deep Connections 2019 expedition explored many of these features, including several within Canada, the Northeast Canyons and Seamounts, and the Lautenberg Deep Sea Coral Protection Area – see also video link.

Video courtesy of the NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research, Deep Connections 2019

Types of MPA

The specific purposes, legal authority, level of protection, management approaches, and use allowance of individual MPAs can vary greatly from site to site.

For instance,?marine reserves??or “no-take” areas restrict extractive uses like collecting or fishing. ?Other types of MPAs are “multiple use” allowing and providing for activities such as fishing, recreation and industrial use.

MPAs can be found across the globe?, often guided by the?principles?established by the IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Global Conservation Standards. Many national MPA agencies collaborate as a part of the?Marine Protected Area Agency Partnership, which provides a forum for the exchange of ideas and opportunities for cooperation.

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Protection and restoration of key marine ecosystems

There are currently 187 countries with some form of marine protection. Reviews of effectively managed Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) have shown that they can increase biodiversity, as well as the size and abundance of species.

But these benefits are only realized when MPAs have high levels of protection, are ecologically coherent, distant from human activities, and with long tenures. The global target of protecting 30% of the ocean by 2030 involves not only designation of more MPAs, but also equitable and effective management of designated sites.

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Marine Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction (ABNJ)

Commonly known as the high seas, ABNJ are those?areas of ocean for which no one nation has sole responsibility for management. ABNJ make up 40% of the surface of our planet (61% of the surface of the oceans).

Often considered the world’s last standing “global commons,”?the complex ecosystems in the ABNJ include the water column and seabed of the high seas. They are mostly far from coasts, making the sustainable management of the fisheries resources and?biodiversity?conservation in those areas extremely challenging. ABNJ ecosystems are subject to negative impacts from human activities in many sectors — from shipping to marine pollution to deep sea fishing and mining — compounded by a complex web of laws and ocean governance.

The BBNJ Agreement

Adopted in June 2023, the?latest such ocean governance mechanism is the “Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction”, or BBNJ Agreement.

The main objective of the BBNJ Agreement is the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity in ABNJ and in the longer term, effective implementation and further international cooperation and coordination. The BBNJ Agreement consists of four pillars and cross-cutting issues:

• Marine genetic resources, including the fair and equitable sharing of benefits;
• Measures such as area-based management tools, including marine protected areas;
• Environmental impact assessments; and
• Capacity-building and the transfer of marine technology.

The BBNJ Agreement also establishes a funding mechanism and sets up institutional arrangements, including a Conference of the Parties and various subsidiary bodies, a Clearing-House Mechanism, and a secretariat.

The BBNJ Agreement is open for signature by all states and regional organizations until Sep 2025, and will enter into force 120 days after the 60th instrument of ratification. The current status of the BBNJ Agreement is 14 ratifications, as shown on the United Nations Treaty Collection website.

Growth in MPAs

Over the last several years the number and spatial extent of MPAs have increased rapidly.

In 2000 the area covered by MPAs was approximately 2 million km2, or 0.5% of the oceans.

Since 2000, there has been a 15-times increase in MPA coverage to 30.25 million km2, or 8.3% of the oceans.

• 89% of the global marine protected area is in the 100 largest marine protected areas
• 36% of the 100 largest MPAs are in implemented fully / highly protected areas
• 11% of the global MPA is in over 18,000 smaller marine protected areas
• Just over half of this marine protected area is in the polar regions.

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Size distribution of marine protected areas

Much of the recent growth in MPA coverage has been driven by the establishment of very large MPAs over 100,000 km2. Some countries, such as the USA, have protected the seas around their overseas territories. Others, such as the Cook Islands in the South Pacific, have protected their entire national waters.

These vast MPAs each contribute a significant part of the total global ocean coverage. While these MPAs represent huge commitments to conservation, there is a need for international collaboration to ensure that MPAs achieve their desired conservation value.

?The current largest 100 MPAs

The Top 25 MPAs

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MPAs can be more easily created by governments in national waters where there are dedicated legal systems in place. In ABNJ it is more difficult to create MPAs due to the complex legal framework in place. As such, the percentage of MPAs created within national waters is much higher than that for ABNJ.

National waters represent 39% of the global ocean and at present, 19.24% of these waters are designated as MPAs. In contrast, only 1.45% of ABNJ (the remaining 61% of the global ocean) has been established as MPAs.

International discussions are underway to establish ways of simplifying the process to create MPAs in ABNJ. Further information is available on the UN Division for Ocean Affairs (DOALOS) website.

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Nations are due to share their updated commitments and plans at this month’s COP16.

Meanwhile a shared database of previous MPA business plans is available at the link

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Key Issues in Ocean Governance (WEF 2024)??

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Multilateral Environmental Agreements

There are a large number of international policy frameworks, instruments and agreements considered to support the conservation and sustainable management of coral reef ecosystems. A 2019 UNEP analysis identified at least 232 global and regional international instruments, and 591 commitments that address the need to protect these ecosystems and manage the key stressors acting on coral reefs – e.g. water quality, chemicals management, and regulation of fisheries.

The United Nations Environment Assembly is the world’s highest-level decision-making body on the environment. Understanding environmental challenges and preserving and rehabilitating our environment is at the heart of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration.

One of the most important international policy frameworks is the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), whose objectives include the conservation of biodiversity and the sustainable use of its components. The CBD Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework?was the new framework put in place after the expiry of the Aichi Biodiversity Targets in 2020, which included the goal of protecting at least 10% of coastal and marine areas (CBD 2010).

Now known as the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity?Framework, it has 23 global targets for urgent action over the decade to 2030. Together, the results will enable achievement towards the outcome-oriented goals for 2050.?Actions are to be implemented consistently with the Convention on Biological Diversity and its Protocols, and other relevant international obligations. The Framework is an ambitious upgrade on previous work and commitments made in 2010, since which biodiversity has continued to decline. It aims to halt and reverse biodiversity loss to achieve a nature-positive world by 2030, requiring investment of at least $ 200 billion p.a.

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Global Biodiversity?Framework – Global Targets

Reducing threats to biodiversity

1: Plan and Manage all Areas to Reduce Biodiversity Loss ??

2: Restore 30% of all Degraded Ecosystems

3: Conserve 30% of Land, Waters and Seas

4: Halt Species Extinction, Protect Genetic Diversity, and Manage Human-Wildlife Conflicts

5: Ensure Sustainable, Safe and Legal Harvesting and Trade of Wild Species

6: Reduce the Introduction of Invasive Alien Species by 50% and Minimize Their Impact

7: Reduce Pollution to Levels that are Not Harmful to Biodiversity

8: Minimize the Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity and Build Resilience

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Meeting people’s needs through sustainable use and benefit-sharing

9: Manage Wild Species Sustainably To Benefit People

10: Enhance Biodiversity and Sustainability in Agriculture, Aquaculture, Fisheries, and Forestry

11: Restore, Maintain and Enhance Nature’s Contributions to People

12: Enhance Green Spaces and Urban Planning for Human Well-Being and Biodiversity

13: Increase the Sharing of Benefits From Genetic Resources, Digital Sequence Information and Traditional Knowledge

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Tools and solutions for implementation and mainstreaming

14: Integrate Biodiversity in Decision-Making at Every Level?

15: Businesses Assess, Disclose and Reduce Biodiversity-Related Risks and Negative Impacts?

16: Enable Sustainable Consumption Choices To Reduce Waste and Overconsumption?

17: Strengthen Biosafety and Distribute the Benefits of Biotechnology

18: Reduce Harmful Incentives by at Least $500 Billion per Year, and Scale Up Positive Incentives for Biodiversity?

19: Mobilize $200 Billion per Year for Biodiversity From all Sources, Including $30 Billion Through International Finance

20: Strengthen Capacity-Building, Technology Transfer, and Scientific and Technical Cooperation for Biodiversity ?

21: Ensure That Knowledge Is Available and Accessible To Guide Biodiversity Action

22: Ensure Participation in Decision-Making and Access to Justice and Information Related to Biodiversity for all

23: Ensure Gender Equality and a Gender-Responsive Approach for Biodiversity Action

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UNDP’s Ocean Governance Programme?

UNDP assists countries in advancing integrated ecosystem-based and climate-resilient management of marine ecosystems at all levels – local, national, regional and global.

This is achieved through strategic planning and implementation approaches, including Marine Spatial Planning, Marine Protected Areas, Large Marine Ecosystem approaches, Integrated Coastal Management and Locally Managed Marine Areas.

To date, UNDP has supported joint, multi-country strategic planning processes in 14 of the world’s 64 Large Marine Ecosystems, covering 94 countries. ?

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Ocean Conservation and Biodiversity – 30 by 30

A global pact to conserve biodiversity in the high seas was formally adopted by the United Nations in 2023. The “30 by 30” initiative is seen as a crucial tool to meet biodiversity targets - to protect 30% of the Earth's land and sea by 2030.

So far, few countries have formally ratified the treaty, while 89 countries have signed it, expressing their intent to ratify it. Environmental groups say the treaty must be brought fully into effect by 2025 at the latest to ensure the protection target is reached.

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"The ocean can't wait, and with the treaty being in the making for the better part of the past 20 years, there is absolutely no time to waste"

Jessica Battle, Worldwide Fund for Nature

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European MPAs

Marine protected area coverage in EU Member States, 2021

The EU has made substantial progress in designating new marine protected areas, both as part of the EU Natura 2000 network and through national designations.

The EU biodiversity strategy target is to protect at least 30% of EU seas by 2030, while also ensuring that all protected areas are effectively managed. The EU biodiversity strategy also highlights the importance of building a truly coherent trans-European network of protected areas through improving their connectivity.

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European 2024 MPA Commitments

The EU's latest 40 commitments were announced during the April 2024 "Our Oceans" conference, a worthy conference that has mobilised more than 2,160 commitments and c. $130 billion since 2014.

The commitments range from fighting marine pollution to supporting sustainable fisheries and investments in the blue economy. The largest part of the EU funds will be used to support 14 investments and one reform in sustainable fisheries and aquaculture - in Cyprus, Greece, Poland, Portugal and Spain.

Other EU initiatives are directed to helping African countries develop their blue economy.

Greece will spend €780 million on 21 commitments which include a ban on bottom trawling in all of the country's marine protected areas.

Greece also pledged to create two more marine parks, one in the Aegean Sea for the protection of seabirds, and one in the Ionian Sea for the protection of sea mammals. The new marine parks will cover more than 4,000 km2 of areas protected under the EU's Natura 2000 network.

And in October 2024, the Azores Islands approved the creation of the largest marine protected area in the North Atlantic. Now at the forefront of global ocean conservation, the autonomous nine-island archipelago (1500 km west of Portugal) is home to unique marine biodiversity.

The network will encompass almost 300,000 km2 and ensures the preservation of underwater mountain ranges and vulnerable marine ecosystems, including deep-sea corals, hydrothermal vents and marine species. Half of the network would be designated as a fully protected area, which means fishing activities are not allowed. In the other half, designated as a highly protected area, only very selective fishing will be allowed.

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"We have acted in advance of the international conservation goals for 2030 with the creation of the largest marine park in the North Atlantic, with fully protected areas and highly protected areas"

Bernardo Brito e Abreu, adviser to the Azorean government on maritime affairs

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Appendix 2

Coral Reefs

Coral reefs exist in more than 100 countries and territories and although they cover less than 1% of the seafloor, coral reefs are hugely biodiverse sanctuaries for fish and ocean life, supporting at least 25% of marine species. They are an integral part of the interconnected web of marine biodiversity and provide some of the most valuable ecosystem services on the planet.

Coral reefs deliver ecosystem services for tourism, fisheries and shoreline protection. The annual global economic value of coral reefs has been estimated at anywhere from $2.7 trillion (2020 estimate) to US$9.9 trillion (2014 estimate).

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A coral reef is an underwater ecosystem characterized by reef-building corals. Reefs are formed of colonies of coral polyps held together by calcium carbonate. Most coral reefs are built from stony corals, whose polyps cluster in groups.

Corals secrete hard carbonate exoskeletons that support and protect the coral. Most reefs grow best in warm, shallow, clear, sunny and agitated water. Coral reefs first appeared 485 million years ago in the Early Ordovician period, displacing the microbial and sponge reefs of the Cambrian. Most coral reefs today are less than 10,000 years old, formed after the Last Glacial Period when melting ice caused sea level to rise and flood continental shelves. As coral communities became established, the reefs grew upwards with rising sea levels. Reefs that rose too slowly would die off, as the water became too deep for their symbionts to adequately photosynthesize, due to decreased light exposure.

Coral reefs are also found in the deep sea away from continental shelves, around oceanic islands and atolls. The majority of these islands are volcanic in origin. Others have tectonic origins where plate movements lifted the deep ocean floor. The Great Barrier Reef is an example of how coral reefs formed on continental shelves. At its formation c.20,000 years ago, sea level was 120 m lower than today, rising 60m by 13,000 years ago. By this time, many hills of the coastal plains had become continental islands. As sea level rise continued, the corals could then overgrow the hills, forming cays and reefs and the world's largest barrier reef, 300–1000 m from shore, stretching for 2,000 km.

Sometimes called rainforests of the sea, shallow coral reefs form some of Earth's most diverse ecosystems. They flourish in ocean waters that provide few nutrients. They are most commonly found at shallow depths in tropical waters, but deep water and cold water coral reefs also exist on smaller scales. South and SE Asia are home for the highest numbers of coral species, followed by Oceania, East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Coral Reef Restoration

Coral reef restoration can help countries deliver on national commitments linked to Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, as well as supporting the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021-2030).

Coral reef restoration efforts are now implemented in at least 56 countries around the world (Bostr?m-Einarsson et al. 2020), but there is limited guidance on the efficiency and efficacy of various methods, particularly with regards to scale, cost, and regional specificities.

A 2018 NOAA-commissioned study highlighted the need for advanced, unconventional approaches to coral reef conservation, with reviews of all current coral genetic, ecological, and environmental intervention strategies (e.g. managed selection, managed breeding, cryopreservation). The practice of “assisted evolution” has developed whereby corals can be broken off, tested for robustness and replanted, essentially yielding a clone of the original coral. By replanting diverse corals selected for their greater robustness and survivability under modern conditions (higher temperatures and ocean acidity), the corals can reproduce with greater genetic diversity and survivorship. Collected corals may be replanted in locations similar to their original environment, or in locations that may soon become similar to their original environment.

Corals under Threat

Ocean heatwaves are becoming more severe and frequent, inevitably triggering mass coral reef decline in a process known as coral bleaching. Coral reefs are the ‘canary in the coal mine’, as regards the impacts of climate change.

Given current emissions trajectories, scientific interventions are needed to find those coral reefs and species that are the most adaptable and adjustable to increasing temperatures. Recent research shows there is hope, as several coral species have shown signs of higher thermal tolerance.

For more than one billion people, healthy coral reefs and coasts are sources of sustainable food, livelihoods and income generation. They provide protection from storm surge, medicines and significant cultural heritage. Coral reefs are essential to the security, resilience and climate adaptation of many of the most climate-vulnerable nations and island states on Earth.

But growing coastal zone populations are also associated with degradation of coastal and marine ecosystems. Shallow tropical coral reefs have declined by 50% since 1950, partly because they are sensitive to water conditions. They are under threat from excess nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus), rising ocean heat content and acidification, overfishing, sunscreen use, and harmful land-use practices, including runoff and seeps (e.g., from injection wells and cesspools).

Many of today’s coral reefs have irreversibly changed. Formerly centres of life with huge biodiversity and stunning displays of colours and shapes, many are now barren landscapes of dead coral rubble. Secondary coral assemblages, that are far less complex and diverse, have replaced the original reefs that evolved over many centuries. Just like shrubs that grow on deforested land, these secondary reefs do not have the same ecological and economical value. Much of this change is attributed to human activity, and the worst is yet to come if we do not intervene.

The worldwide coral population is now in deep peril. The scale of the problem is huge - half of the world’s reefs are dead and 90% of the other half are predicted to die in the next 30 years.

The very existence of these critical ecosystems is at stake due to the climate crisis and human-driven stressors. The window for protecting these ecosystems is closing rapidly, and scientists globally are calling on public and private actors to take action for the future of coral reefs.

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Coral Reef Restoration Initiatives

To reverse this trajectory, we must scale cost-efficient solutions to enable the spread and recovery of resilient coral reefs on a global scale. Several initiatives are in operation, or planned subject to funding commitments.

Historically, coral reef restoration has been led by enthusiastic individuals who were not necessarily associated with a broader group or organisation. As the field has matured, we have seen the emergence of more organisations, divided into three broad categories: NGOs or philanthropic organisations, private businesses, and research institutions.

Close to half (43%) of the groups identified as leading restoration projects were NGOs. This is perhaps due to the grassroots nature of how the field developed, and the prevalence of coral reefs in developing countries. A large proportion of coral restoration projects have been funded through charitable donations and grants.

1.??? The Coral Reef Breakthrough Initiative

The Coral Reef Breakthrough Initiative is a relatively new UN-sponsored initiative that aims to bring sufficiently large funding to advance a wide range of reef conservation and restoration projects.

Launched in Sep 2023 at the 37th International Coral Reef Initiative General Meeting (Hawaii), the Coral Reef Breakthrough was developed in collaboration with the UN Climate Change High-level Champions (HLCC), the International Coral Reef Initiative (ICRI), and the Global Fund for Coral Reefs (GFCR), with support from Sweden and Monaco.

The Coral Reef Breakthrough involves all stakeholders for scalable coral reef actions – namely indigenous peoples, coastal local communities, governments, public and private financial institutions, science, philanthropies and the private sector. ?It aims to secure the future of at least 125,000 km2 of shallow-water tropical coral reefs with investments of at least US$12 billion, to support the resilience of more than half a billion people globally by 2030.

Funding Target

The funding target was based on “The cost of saving our ocean – estimating the funding gap of SDG14” influential study by Johansen and Vestvik (2020) ,evaluating the ocean conservation funding gap until 2030 at $ 174.5 billion p.a.

The Coral Reef Breakthrough funding target of $12 billion was calculated as 1% of that ocean conservation target for 7 years (2023-2030), on the basis that coral reefs cover ~1% of oceans.

?Action point 1 - Stop drivers of loss: Mitigate local drivers of loss including land-based sources of pollution, destructive coastal development and overfishing.

The climate and biodiversity crises continue to pose an existential threat to coral reefs. The threat is compounded by anthropogenic stressors such as land and marine pollution, unsustainable tourism, coastal development, overfishing and other harmful extractive activities.

However, mitigating these stressors can lead to the recovery of coral cover and associated biodiversity, functions and services. For example, local reef management in the Dominican Republic that integrates water quality treatment, restricts vessel traffic, and regulates fishing has led to improved reef health indicators.

The Coral Reef Breakthrough will support efforts to mitigate and stop local anthropogenic stressors to coral reefs, particularly in coastal areas neighbouring active conservation measures of protection and restoration.

Action point 2 - Double the area of coral reefs under effective protection: Bolster resilience-based coral reef conservation efforts by aligning with and transcending global coastal protection targets including 30 by 30

Target 3 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework calls for at least 30% of terrestrial and inland water areas, and of marine and coastal areas to be under effectively conserved and managed through ecologically representative, well-connected, and equitably governed systems of protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures. The UNEP-WCMC estimates that ~60,000 km2 of coral reefs are under protection, and the Coral Reef Breakthrough aims to secure a further 65,000 km2 of coral reefs under conservation measures.

Ensuring that the conservation measures are effective is paramount. Initiatives should focus on resilience of reefs and associated communities, and bolster capacity for coral reef ecosystems to adapt to changing conditions. Sustainable management strategies should always respect indigenous and local knowledge.

Action point 3 - Accelerate Restoration: Assist the development and implementation of innovative solutions at scale and climate smart designs that support coral to impact 30% of degraded reefs by 2030

Target 2 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework calls for the effective restoration of at least 30% of degraded terrestrial and inland water areas, and of marine and coastal areas; and for the restoration efforts to enhance biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services, ecological integrity, and connectivity.

The Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network estimates that ~ 35,000 km2 of coral reefs have been lost since 2009 (GCRMN 2020). Meeting Target 2 would thus require the restoration of 10,500km2.

Under that target, the term “restoration” recognizes a broad range of interventions aimed at repairing degraded reef structure and function and boosting the potential for coral reefs to adapt to future conditions.

Achieving the ambitious target requires simultaneously protecting what we have, and rebuilding what we have lost. Effective restoration of coral reef ecosystems should prevent reefs from becoming dominated by algae, prevent loss of biodiversity, allow reefs to maintain structural rugosity, and keep pace with warming oceans and sea level rise.

Restoration programs and projects should (a) be supported at multiple scales, (b) integrate local stress mitigation (e.g., fishing and pollution regulations), (c) boost corals’ ability to adapt to a warming ocean, and (d) actively include and engage local stakeholders.

Projects in reef-rich, low-income nations are to be prioritized. The exchange of knowledge and technical capacity between developed and developing reef nations should also be supported (e.g. via the Coral Restoration Consortium). The Coral Reef Breakthrough is to support funding for research and development to increase the scale at which reefs can be restored with resilient and heat-adapted corals.

Action point 4 - Secure investments of at least USD 12 billion by 2030 from public and private sources to conserve and restore these crucial ecosystems

The Coral Reef Breakthrough will work with existing financial mechanisms to secure up to at least USD 12 billion for at least 125,000 km2 of coral reefs by 2030. This investment will enable more effective coral reef management including water quality management, coastal management, and local and regional regulations. Unlocked investments should strive for capital flows at the scale needed and allow equitable distribution of funding. There should also be a diversification of funding opportunities, particularly private funding with the potential to scale up existing efforts in space and time.

Data gaps in coral reef conservation finance only allow for estimates of required investments to be drawn from global ocean studies of needs and funding gaps. The target of USD 12 billion by 2030 illustrates that radical commitments are necessary given the dire state of coral reef health worldwide, and ocean conservation at large is chronically underfunded . This Coral Reef Breakthrough should help support the funding for studies to properly estimate the coral reef funding data gap and elucidate the cost of effective coral reef conservation in the face of climate change.

Impact

Achieving the Coral Reef Breakthrough will mean preventing the functional extinction of one of the world’s most threatened, yet most valuable and biodiverse ecosystems.

The target of 125,000 km2 exceeds the 30% target set by the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework to highlight the urgency and priority for the world to save coral reefs.

In economic terms, actions to conserve and restore 50% of the world’s coral reefs could potentially generate over $18 billion in tourism revenues annually, while preserving important fishing grounds and spawning aggregations for commercially important fisheries. As well as safeguarding $5.5 billion of coastal economic value through shoreline protection. ?

2. Global Fund for Coral Reefs (GFCR)?

UNDP, along with a diverse suite of UN, government, philanthropic and private sector partners, launched the Global Fund for Coral Reefs (GFCR), a blended finance instrument to mobilize $625 million in donor funds and partner assets over the next 10 years, to protect and restore coral reef ecosystems.

Through blended finance and innovative public-private partnership, the Fund is catalysing a sustainable financial ecosystem for the conservation and development of coral reefs.?

Hosting both an Investment Fund and a Grant Fund, GFCR’s portfolio focuses on four sectors:

• Sustainable Ocean Production;
• Sustainable Coastal Development;
• Circular Economy and Pollution Management; and
• Financial Mechanisms.?

GFCR’s portfolio ranges from Latin America and the Caribbean to eastern Africa and the Asia-Pacific region, with a notable presence in Small Island Developing States (SIDS). The solutions are dedicated to coral reefs identified by leading scientific studies to have the best chance of surviving climate impacts.

Key 2030 GFCR Coalition targets are as follows:

• 400+ Reef-Positive businesses
• 30k+ Reef-Positive jobs
• 20m+ Community Members with increased resilience
• 3 million hectares area of Coral Reefs under improved management
• 7.5 million hectares MPA Area with Sustainable Financing Support

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3.??? The Coral Restoration Consortium

The Coral Restoration Consortium (CRC) was formed in 2017 to foster collaborations and technology transfer among experts, managers, and practitioners, and facilitate the adoption of coral reef restoration practices globally. A high-level community of practice that comprises scientists, managers, coral restoration practitioners, and educators dedicated to help coral reef ecosystems adapt and survive the 21st century and beyond.

The CRC established five initial working groups to provide best management practices for coral restoration. The restoration genetics working group includes members from the U.S. Geological Survey, SECORE International, and a range of US universities.

The priorities are:

●????? Scaling-up in-water, land-based, and larval propagation

●????? Designing projects to demonstrate multi-species ecosystem functioning and coastal protection

●????? Coordinating and fostering genetics science into adaptive restoration

●????? Developing restoration monitoring guidelines and common-access data platforms

The CRC is initially focused on Caribbean coral restoration, but invites participation from scientists, managers and practitioners working in other regions.

4.??? The Coral Restoration Foundation

The Coral Restoration Foundation, a US based charity, holds claim to be the largest reef restoration organisation in the world. Headquartered in Key Largo Florida, the CRF were founded in 2007, in response to the wide-spread loss of the dominant coral species on Florida's Coral Reef. The Reef now hosts just 2% of the populations of the once-dominant staghorn and elkhorn coral that it had in the 1970s. ?These became some of the first corals to be included on the IUCN Red List of Endangered Species, now listed as “Critically Endangered”.

The CRF has developed a method for “farming” and “outplanting” colonies of staghorn and elkhorn. By hanging finger-sized fragments of these corals to grow on Coral Trees?, they produce colonies large enough to be outplanted in just six to nine months.

Running from north of Miami down to Key West in the south, Florida's Coral Reef is the third largest barrier reef in the world and the only barrier coral reef in the continental United States. To date, the CRF has restored more than 17,500 m2 of Florida's Coral Reef.

5.?? The International Coral Reef Initiative (ICRI)

The ICRI is a policy-making initiative that has adopted resolutions on coral restoration and formed a dedicated Ad-hoc committee on coral restoration, with a mission to help coordinate projects and research among international partners.

This includes assessing global needs and priorities; advocating best practice in science, policy and legislation; and facilitating the transfer of new knowledge to managers and restoration practitioners.

The ICRI began in 1994 and has grown into an informal partnership of 80 members. ICRI was formed to preserve the world’s coral reefs and related ecosystems.

In 2019, the committee was tasked with the following aims:

1. To establish an inventory of existing and future reef restoration activities throughout the world.

2. To identify leading and innovative practices, techniques and strategies (including their limits, conditions of implementation, financing, and an assessment of their results).

3. To revise the 2005 ICRI resolution on coral reef restoration in light of new scientific and management knowledge.

4. To seek active collaboration and participation with organisations in the field including International Coral Reef Society (ICRS), Commonwealth Blue Charter, the Coral Restoration Consortium (CRC), and Australia’s Reef Restoration and Adaptation Program (RRAP).

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6.??? The Commonwealth Blue Charter

The CBC is an agreement between all 56 Commonwealth nations to solve ocean-related challenges and to achieve sustainable ocean development and SDG14, with action areas specific to coral reef protection and restoration.

Other examples of initiatives at the regional level include the Nairobi Convention Coral Reef Task Force, Caribbean Challenge, Micronesia Challenge, Coral Triangle Initiative, and the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP).

7.??? Save The Corals Campaign – Friend of the Sea

Friend of the Sea is currently a project of the World Sustainability Organization, an international NGO for environmental conservation.

Friend of the Sea has become the leading certification standard for products and services which respect and protect the marine environment. The certification awards sustainable practices in Fisheries, Aquaculture, Fishmeal and Omega 3 Fish Oil. Friend of the Sea also promotes pilot projects related to restaurants, sustainable shipping, whale and dolphin-watching, aquaria, ornamental fish, UV creams and others.

Yearly audits are carried out onsite by independent international certification bodies in consultation with stakeholders, against the strict Friend of the Sea environmental sustainability and social accountability criteria.

8.??? Coral Gardeners?

Coral Gardeners was founded in 2017 in France and is focused on reef conservation and generating collaborative action to restore the reefs of French Polynesia and beyond.

The association has three main missions: to raise awareness, restore and innovate.

The super coral adoption program is driving awareness while also raising funds.?Corals that have survived bleaching events in the wild are being identified and grown in nurseries until these “super coral” fragments are mature enough to be transplanted back onto the reef. Innovation is also part of this process, using techniques incorporating artificial intelligence with smart sensors to observe and monitor the coral nurseries in real time.?

By 2025, Coral Gardeners hope to expand internationally, plant 1 million corals around the world and reach 1 billion people through awareness campaigns and stories.??

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9.??? The Plant a Million Corals campaign – Coral Vita

Video link:

Also focused on reversing this massive decline are Coral Vita?and Dr David Vaughan. Using an assisted evolution process, the corals that are the most resilient to heat and acidity - are transplanted back into degraded reefs.

Coral Vita aims to modernize both coral restoration techniques and the economy surrounding them. Despite setbacks from Hurricane Dorian, which wiped out the team’s coral farm in the Bahamas, Coral Vita managed to close a $2 million round, with the intention to come back with a new global model for the field. Investors include the environment-focused Builders Initiative, the Sustainable Ocean Alliance, some notable VC investors and Yale University.

Rather than just rebuilding the pilot farm, Coral Vita took the next step forward. The larger plan is to transition away from ocean-based farms to land facilities that allow for much improved yield and survivability, and employ advanced techniques to speed up coral’s growth and increase its survival rate. One such technique is coral micro-fragmentation, in which corals are broken up into tiny pieces, which can grow as much as 50 times faster in aggregate. And by doing so on land they can exert much more control over the coral’s attributes. An ocean-based nursery is much cheaper, but when faced with the need to grow millions and ultimately billions of corals around the world, land-based facilities are much more realistic. Economies of scale are also expected to kick in, with $10 per coral costs as scale increases to 100-1000 tanks.

This type of restoration work tends to be the domain of nonprofits and government agencies. Coral Vita is attempting to find local sources of income separate to grants and aid. Selling to customers that depend on the reef ecosystems for business – for example hotels with scuba or snorkel tourists, coastal property owners, insurers, governments – who can hire Coral Vita to restore their local reefs.

Coral Vita also plans advances in R&D, including 3D printing and automation with robotics.

Proving out the scalable land-based farms opens up the possibility of more farms in other countries and a global presence, ultimately with lowered costs and lead times for corals.

https://plantamillioncorals.org/?

10.??? Garnier & Great Barrier Reef Foundation Partnership

Stretching almost 2,300km along Australia’s north-eastern coastline, the Great Barrier Reef is one of the world’s seven natural wonders and is home to more than 9,000 known species of marine life.

The Great Barrier Reef Plant A Coral campaign is a partnership between Garnier and the Great Barrier Reef Foundation to raise funds to deliver coral conservation and restoration solutions to reefs in the Great Barrier Reef. In 2023, in partnership with the Great Barrier Reef Foundation, Garnier dispersed 500,000 baby corals onto damaged areas of the Reef. This total will be surpassed in 2024, with an additional 700,000 baby corals dispersed during the Nov/Dec 2024 coral spawning season. Australians can visit a Coles store up until Nov 5th and participate in the buy a Garnier product, plant one coral campaign.?

Planting locations are carefully considered, selecting the reefs best placed?to have flow-on benefits to nearby reefs. The scaling of Coral IVF and planting are key parts of the restoration toolkit. Coral IVF is?a nature-based solution that delivers greater volumes of coral larvae onto reefs, boosting the number of coral babies that survive to maturity – providing a massive boost for the health of the Reef.?

Global Map of KBAs (Key Biodiversity Areas)?

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Appendix 3

Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs)

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Close to 50% of land is assessed to be degraded. The world’s ecosystems – from oceans to forests to farmlands to coral reefs – are being degraded at an accelerating rate. Human activity has over-exploited and used natural resources in an unsustainable manner, accelerating natural processes of degradation that are now compounded by the climate crisis. ?

All ecosystems globally are affected by degradation, as a result of both natural and anthropogenic causes. Currently, 75% of the terrestrial environment, 40% of the marine environment, and 50% of streams show severe impacts of degradation. Our current agricultural practices are causing soils to erode up to 100 times faster than natural processes can replenish them. ?

Land degradation also leads to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services, and ultimately to decreased bio-production and food insecurity. This affects the livelihoods of up to 3.2 billion people.

Supporting ambition on ecosystem restoration?

The ecosystem restoration work of UNDP is spread across many thematic areas, including ecosystem-based-adaptation within the climate change adaptation thematic area. UNDP supports countries to integrate conservation and targeted restoration of natural ecosystems and degraded landscapes – such as mangrove forests, wetlands, and catchment forests – into an overarching ecosystem-based adaptation strategies that protect against climate change threats.?

UNDP also supports vulnerable communities and countries in?drylands and other fragile ecosystems?to build social and ecological resilience to adopt and scale up sustainable land management and ecosystem restoration techniques. Some of this work is specifically targeted towards local communities through the deployment of?small grants to implement locally-adapted solutions?to reverse degradation trends through sustainable land management, agroecology, sustainable agriculture and sustainable forest management practices.?

World Network of Biosphere Reserves

The World Network of Biosphere Reserves (WNBR) consists of a dynamic and interactive network of sites of excellence.?It promotes collaboration and represents a unique tool for international cooperation through the exchange of experiences and know-how, capacity-building and the promotion of best practices among Biosphere Reserves.

Biosphere reserves are a pillar of UNESCO's mandate as the United Nations sciences agency. Each biosphere reserve promotes innovative local solutions, in order to conserve biodiversity, preserve ecosystems and tackle climate change, while improving people's livelihoods, such as by developing agro-ecology, renewable sources of energy and green industries.

Biosphere reserves contribute to countries achieving the targets adopted last December within the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. These targets include designating 30% of the Earth’s land surface as protected areas and restoring 30% of the planet’s degraded ecosystems by 2030.

What are biosphere reserves?

Biosphere reserves are ‘learning places for sustainable development’ - places that provide local solutions to global challenges. They include terrestrial, marine and coastal ecosystems. Each site promotes solutions reconciling the conservation of biodiversity with its sustainable use.

They are sites for testing interdisciplinary approaches to understanding and managing changes and interactions between social and ecological systems, including conflict prevention and management of biodiversity.

Biosphere reserves are nominated by national governments and remain under the sovereign jurisdiction of the states where they are located.

UNESCO’s Man and the Biosphere (MAB) Programme approves the designation of new reserves. ?They are designated by the Director-General of UNESCO, following the decisions of the MAB International Coordinating Council (MAB-ICC).?Their status is internationally recognized. Member States can submit sites through?the?designation and review process.

Biosphere Reserves involve local communities and all interested stakeholders in planning and management. They integrate three main "functions":

Conservation - of biodiversity and cultural diversity

Economic development - that is socio-culturally and environmentally sustainable

Logistic support - underpinning development through research, monitoring, education and training

Map of the World Network of Biosphere Reserves

New biosphere reserves

With the latest new designations, the World Network now totals 752 sites in 134 countries, including 23 transboundary sites.

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CBD COP 16 – National Action Plans

From 21 October until 1 November 2024, delegates are meeting in Cali, Colombia to take stock of national pledges to protect nature, amid concerns countries are back-sliding on their promises.

Recent?commentary?suggests that many countries will miss the deadline to submit new national action plans for preserving nature. Key issues include the scale of ambition in meeting specific targets, and the requisite finance for biodiversity projects in poorer countries.

COP16 will no doubt be a forum for securing much greater amounts of Nature Finance required, in order to make a proper impact, through more ambitious national action plans.

The Global Biodiversity Framework's financial target: To implement national biodiversity strategies and action plans, a requirement of at least $200 billion per year by 2030, including blended (public and private) finance alongside existing and new resources.

In this respect, three ambitious UNDP-supported finance initiatives?are:

• The?Biodiversity Finance Initiative?(BIOFIN)?- Developed by UNDP in 2012 and adopted in 123 countries as of 2023. BIOFIN works with governments, civil society, vulnerable communities and the private sector to catalyze investments in nature. The initiaitve supports countries to develop and implement ‘Biodiversity Finance Plans’, with 150+ finance solutions. BIOFIN is working with governments and the private sector to demonstrate how tailored investments work to protect nature, create jobs, and combat climate change.?.
• The?Global Fund for Coral Reefs?(GFCR), administered by the UN Multi-Partner Trust Fund office.??See Appendix 2 for further details.
• The?Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures?(TNFD) - Launched in June 2021, the Taskforce aims to establish a reporting framework for financial institutional risk, dependencies and impacts on nature, to redirect financing from nature-destructive investment to nature-positive investments. Through the TNFD,?UNDP supports businesses to better understand their dependence and impact on the natural environment.

Deforestation - The Forests & Finance database

The Forests & Finance database provides data on financing and investment flows going towards the 300 most important producers and traders of the six commodities which are responsible for most tropical deforestation: beef, palm oil, pulp & paper, rubber, soy and timber.

These flows were identified using commercial financing databases, company reports and other company publications, filings in company registers, media reports and analyst reports. The BNDES Transparency portal and Brazil’s Central Bank portal were used to identify additional financial flows to forest-risk companies in Brazil.

The database contains information on corporate loans and underwriting facilities provided to the selected companies in the period 2013?2024 (June). It also contains data on investment in bonds and shares of the selected companies as of June 2024.

Forest-risk investments per region

Institutional investors across the world held $ 41 billion in forest-risk attributable bonds and shares as of June 2024, issued by the 300 producers and traders covered by the Forests & Finance database.

Forest-risk credit per country

By contrast, the amount of credit extended to the same 300 companies was a staggering 9.6 times greater. From January 2016 to June 2024 loans and underwriting services with a total value of $ 395 billion were provided. Some 66% ($ 260 billion) of this credit was attributable to company activities in Brazil and a further 20% ($ 89 billion) to activities in Indonesia.

Brazil and Indonesian banks together represent 72% ($ 251.3 billion) of all forest-risk credit identified for the period 2016?2024. A total of 57% of all forest-risk credit identified for the period 2016?2024 went to forest-risk commodity production and trading in Brazil, with 48% originating from Brazilian banks and 9% from local Brazilian subsidiaries of foreign banks. In the same period 15% of all forest-risk credit went to forest-risk commodity production and trading in Indonesia, with 10% originating from Indonesian banks and 5% from local Indonesian subsidiaries of foreign banks. Chinese financial institutions are #3 in terms of forest-risk credit, providing $ 28.2 billion over the same period.

Improving the financial regulations relevant for banks and investment products in Brazil and Indonesia should therefore be a key priority to align the finance sector with the GBF targets.

The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) is integrating sustainability criteria into the management of its reserves portfolio, which had a total value of BRL 4,104 billion ($ 731 billion) at the end of 2022. From end 2020 to end 2022, the BCB expanded its investment in green bonds from less than $ 200 million to $ 2 billion. BCB also tracks metrics related to climate risks, related to GHG emissions, energy profile, and implicit temperature rise, with the aim of improving the performance of its portfolio on these criteria. It is also considering including a Sustainable Liquidity Mechanism to apply different haircuts for the collateral classified as ESG, once the ESG securities market reaches a sufficient level of depth. No sustainability criteria have been considered in the asset purchase programme of the BCB.

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Environmental Governance

The global community faces intertwined crises, from poverty and inequalities to environmental challenges such as biodiversity loss and climate change. Governance systems are often less developed and strained.??In many countries, political and social institutions are not meeting the immediate or longer-term needs of their populations in ways that support trust in governance systems. There is severe social and political polarization in many countries, fueled by information pollution and the lack of independent media. ??

Shortcomings in systems of environmental governance are exacerbating the ′triple planetary crisis’ of biodiversity loss and environmental degradation, pollution, and climate change.??

Case Study - JBS

JBS is the world’s largest meat processor and among the top-five largest food and beverage companies, with major US and European customers. JBS’s daily slaughter capacity includes 76,150 head of cattle, 132,000 pigs and 13.8 million poultry birds. Animal protein sales account for 91% of its revenues. It is one of the world’s highest-emitting livestock companies due to extensive deforestation and cattle ranching, a major source of methane emissions. With estimated CO2 emissions of 288 million tonnes in 2021, JBS has taken on a commitment to reduce its GHG emissions to zero by 2040.

JBS has been repeatedly convicted and fined for a wide range of illegal business practices over the last 15 years. These practices include bribery and corruption, price-fixing, forest destruction, forced labour and labour abuses, invasion and land grabbing of Indigenous and traditional territories, and excessive GHG emissions.

JBS responded to pre-IPO allegations in 2023 that the only solution for deforestation in Brazil is to have a national mandatory traceability system.

Since 2018, the Brazilian-owned bank BTG Pactual provided $ 153 million in forest-risk underwriting services to JBS. Santander and Barclays have also provided $ 94 million each in forest-risk underwriting services in the same period.

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Cases such as JBS highlight the historical problems with banking standards and compliance not just in Emerging Markets, but in banking generally. Despite new laws and regulations, there has been a narrow focus on decarbonisation, rather than effects on Nature and biodiversity. Banks are still financing deforestation - one of the most environmentally-destructive practices. This policy blind spot has prompted central banks to get involved alongside policymakers and the next coordinated wave of laws and regulations will correct this situation.

Recent EU legislation, like the EU Directive on corporate sustainability due diligence and the EU Deforestation Regulation, facilitates the holding of multinational companies to account for environmental harm in their supply chains, and bank financing of such companies.

New laws notwithstanding, the framework for sovereign and corporate green bonds is already more demanding in its requirements from the outset. Sovereign green bond issuance improves the quality of green verification standards generally, consistent with best practice.

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Focus – European Union Biodiversity strategy for 2030

The EU and its member states are committed to?setting biodiversity on the road to recovery by 2030.?The EU biodiversity strategy for 2030 is the cornerstone of nature protection in the EU and is a key element of the?European Green Deal.

The Commission presented the strategy in May 2020. The main actions to be delivered by 2030 include:

• the creation of?protected areas covering?at least 30%?of the EU's land and sea area,?extending the coverage of existing Natura 2000 areas
• the restoration of degraded ecosystems across the EU by 2030 through a series of specific commitments and measures, including the reduction in the use and risk of?pesticides?by?50%?by 2030?and the planting of?3 billion trees?across the EU
• the allocation of?€20 billion per year?to protect and promote biodiversity through EU funds and national and private funding
• the creation of an?ambitious global biodiversity framework

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Ministers called for a significant proportion - 30% of the EU budget and Next Generation EU?expenditure allocated to addressing climate action - to be invested in biodiversity and nature-based solutions promoting biodiversity.

The?'farm to fork'? and EU biodiversity strategies, jointly presented in 2020, share multiple goals and targets: for example the reduction in pesticides and fertilisers, the restoration of agricultural land and the management of water. ?

EU Nature restoration law

The EU nature restoration law (adopted June 2024) aims to put in place recovery measures that will cover?at least 20 % of the EU’s land and 20 % of sea areas by 2030, and all ecosystems in need of restoration by 2050.??The rules are the?first ever?focused specifically on the recovery of nature in EU member states.

The nature restoration rules will set?binding targets?for restoration action for:

• degraded land and sea habitats
• pollinators
• agricultural ecosystems
• urban areas
• rivers and floodplains
• forests

Other EU policies to protect biodiversity

EU efforts to stop the loss of biodiversity and ecosystems are grounded in legislation. This includes the:

• birds and habitats directives
• water framework directive
• marine strategy framework directive

Legislation covering sectors such as pollution, invasive alien species and climate change also contributes to conserving biodiversity by?tackling the drivers of its loss.?

To fund actions on the ground to protect and restore nature, the EU set up the?LIFE programme. Launched in 1992, it is the only EU funding programme entirely dedicated to environmental and climate objectives. Since its creation, LIFE has co-financed more than 5000 projects.

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