Nature Based Solutions and the 30x30 Goal

Assessing the Current State and Future Potential of the 30x30 Initiative in the U.S.

The 30x30 conservation initiative, which aims to protect 30% of the Earth's lands and waters by 2030, has gained significant traction in the United States as a response to the pressing issues of biodiversity loss and climate change. The intentions behind this initiative are undeniably admirable, seeking to safeguard our nation's natural heritage for future generations.? And protecting land is going to help with climate, water, and biodiversity, concerns as a recent study published in Science (Langhammer et al., 2024) shows.? ?

There's new evidence to support the conclusion that conservation works, and restoration along with active management can help even more.? The Langhammer study shows restoration actions and active management are more effective than just setting aside lands under one kind of protected status or another when it comes slowing the decline of biodiversity.

Right now, according to the Protected Areas Database of the U.S. (PADUS), 12% of lands in the U.S. are currently protected at levels consistent with the biodiversity and climate goals of 30x30 proposals (Jenkins et al., 2023). ?If that's right then achieving the 30% target will require conserving 440 million more acres in the next six years.? This will be an 'all hands on deck' exercise, and privately owned lands will need to play a role if the 30x30 initiative is to be successful. Many of the areas with the greatest biodiversity and carbon potential are found on these lands, thus the need for improved private and working land conservation programs that incentivize landowners to participate in conservation efforts.?

To that end, the initiative can take a page from restoration actions by non-profit organizations as well as the standards required of mitigation banking and conservation banking companies.? These efforts prioritize improving ecological function, and mitigation banks are scored or 'graded' according to how much ecological uplift occurs on each acre - not just how many acres are protected.

While the rigorous agency review processes for mitigation banks required to meet specific credit methodologies aren't appropriate for the landscape level goals of 30x30, the standards can help to us to understand and to communicate why we are trying to conserve land.? Mitigation and conservation banking can be an important part of achieving the 30x30 goals, because the ecological value of restoration results on banks contributes a lot on each acre that is approved by regulators.? Banking is one of the fastest-growing tools for conservation, and it is also one of the most accountable and measurable[i].

And it's not just banking that will need to expand and grow.? Recent changes like the ones made by the US Fish and Wildlife Service to Section 7 regulations, specifying off-site offsets as a reasonable and prudent measure further endorse the approach that USFWS has taken for years in California, and should boost various projects and collaborations with the California Department of Fish and Wildlife, leading to more effective and targeted conservation efforts in the state.

The Langhammer study highlights the effectiveness of various conservation strategies, such as controlling invasive species, restoring habitats, and establishing protected areas, across different geographic locations, ecosystems, and political systems. The economic case for investing in conservation is strong, as more than half of the world's GDP is moderately or highly dependent on nature[ii], and every dollar invested in conservation yields a return of $100 in ecosystem services[iii].? But these global observations depend on very local economic decisions that involve real estate values, permitting timelines for restoration, and the ecological benefits of specific projects for specific places.

In the end 30x30 is a grand and ambitious idea, and one worthy of real focus and support. Suggesting that this initiative could learn from restoration projects by NGOs and from the metrics required for mitigation and conservation banks, is not disparaging the high-level counting of acres towards a goal. But counting acres without ultimately knowing why we are doing it will not bring us to the place we need to get to.? Each acre needs to provide a nature based solution to some sort of problem, because something has to be different after the acre 'counts' if 30x30 is to make a difference.

The true measure of success for 30x30 will be the tangible improvements in biodiversity, ecosystem health, and climate resilience that result from these conservation efforts. By focusing on ecological function and strategic prioritization, we can ensure that the 30x30 initiative not only meets its numerical targets but also achieves its underlying purpose of safeguarding the natural world for the next generations to come.? They're coming soon.

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References:

Barnes, M. D., Glew, L., Wyborn, C., & Craigie, I. D. (2018). Prevent perverse outcomes from global protected area policy. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 2(5), 759-762. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-018-0501-y

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Jenkins, C. N., Malcom, J., Lee-Ashley, M., Mayfield, H., & Kraus, J. (2023). Getting to 30x30: Guidelines for Decision-makers. Defenders of Wildlife, Washington, D.C. Retrieved from [URL or source provided in the original document]

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Langhammer, P., Bicknell, J., Vo?í?ek, P., Visconti, P., Watson, J. E. M., & Burgman, M. (2024). The positive impact of conservation action. Science, 384(6694) https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj6598

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[i] Palmer Hough and Rachel Harrington, Ten Years of the Compensatory Mitigation Rule: Reflections on Progress and Opportunities, Environmental Law Reporter, January 2019

[ii] World Economic Forum. (2020). Nature Risk Rising: Why the Crisis Engulfing Nature Matters for Business and the Economy. New Nature Economy Report Series. Geneva, Switzerland: World Economic Forum. Retrieved from https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_New_Nature_Economy_Report_2020.pdf

[iii] Waldron, A., Adams, V., Allan, J., Arnell, A., Asner, G., Atkinson, S., ... & Zhang, Y. (2020). Protecting 30% of the planet for nature: costs, benefits and economic implications. Campaign for Nature. Retrieved from https://www.campaignfornature.org/protecting-30-of-the-planet-for-nature-economic-analysis

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