The NATOVET Radar Weekly 24-31 August 2022

On the NATOVET Radar Weekly

??24-31 August 2022

Focus Point: Great Power Competition

Why so few countries in the UN supported Ukraine.

27.08.2022 ?It seems that the thesis that the world is getting cold and tired of the war in Ukraine is getting its practical confirmation. On August 24, following the results of the UN Security Council meeting, 58 countries signed a statement on the half-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Why are there so few and why are there not many of the world’s leading countries among them?

There are 193 states in the UN, and only 58 of them signed the statement. That is, the statement in favor of Ukraine was signed by less than a third of the countries that are part of the United Nations Organization.

The fact that almost half of the large G20 countries — China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa — did not support the UN statement is particularly disturbing.

Taras Zahorodniy, political scientist: ?Here we need to look not at the number, but at the quality of the signatories. Well, what about the fact that less than a third of the countries signed the UN statement. However, these countries produce 60 percent of the world’s GDP, that’s what is important for us... But the important thing here is that their support for Russia is mainly limited to words. They, for example, did not give and do not give Moscow weapons for the war with Ukraine. ukrainainc.net

Russia-Ukraine War: Six months, twenty-three lessons

What the world has learned from Russia’s war in Ukraine?

24.08.2022 Six months, twenty-three lessons: What the world has learned from Russia’s war in Ukraine?

1. ??????????Lesson for Western diplomacy: Don’t second-guess Ukrainians

2.??????????Lesson for global diplomacy: Putin’s regime can’t be trusted—and needs to be defeated

3.??????????Lesson for US foreign policy: The United States can no longer rely on strategic ambiguity

4.??????????Lesson for US national security: Washington must contend with Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran?? at the same time

5.??????????Lesson for military operations: Equipment doesn’t win wars. People do.

6.??????????Lesson for military planning: Nimble modern weapons can defeat larger, conventionally ????????????armed forces— especially when on the defensive

7.??????????Lesson for deterrence: Troop deployments work better than threats of economic sanctions

8.??????????Lesson for the global economy: The new tools of conflict are economic—and they are ?powerful

9.??????????Lesson for economic statecraft: Don’t separate sanctions from longer-term foreign- policy objectives

10.????????Lesson for economic statecraft: Sanctions work, but they are messy and take time

11.????????Lesson for wartime strategic communications: Influence operations are a day-in, day-out job

12.????????Lesson for hybrid warfare: Don’t ignore the fundamentals

13.????????Lesson for the energy sector: Decades of energy diplomacy can disappear with one brutal ????????invasion

14.????????Lesson for global intelligence: Russia is not ten feet tall

15.????????Lesson for would-be invaders: You can’t hide preparations for a full-scale invasion

16.????????Lesson for cybersecurity: The private sector should play a critical military-operational role in ???cyberspace

17.????????Lesson for US homeland security: Ignoring the home front is a serious mistake

18.????????Lesson for US assistance policy: Invest deeply in key resilient partners

19.????????Lesson for NATO: The Alliance is a uniquely valuable institution that requires enduring political and financial investment

20.????????Lesson for Ukraine: There’s no way back for relations with Russia???????????

21.????????Lesson for China: Today’s Ukraine is not tomorrow’s Taiwan?????

22.????????Lesson for Middle East policymakers: America will always do the right thing, but only after ???????exhausting all the alternatives??????

23.????????Lesson for Germany and its allies: Seize this moment for a strategic reversal.” atlanticcouncil.org

Russia-Ukraine War: Iran’s drones and the satellite on Iran’s behalf

First of ‘hundreds’ of Iranian drones arrives in Russia

30.08.2022 The U.S. confirms that Russia has received two types of drones from Iran, the Mohajer-6 and Shahed-series, Defense Department spokesperson Todd Breasseale told POLITICO, corroborating earlier reports. The drones can be used to conduct strikes, electronic warfare and targeting, he noted.

Beyond the drone transfers, the U.S. has seen recent reports that Russia launched a satellite with “significant spying capabilities” on Iran’s behalf, the spokesperson said.

“This demonstrates that as Russia endures costs on the battlefield in Ukraine, it is experiencing difficulties in sustaining its own weapons, as it looks to countries like Iran for capabilities to sustain its forces,” according to the spokesperson.

“It also makes the case for U.S. engagement in the region so we don’t leave a vacuum for China or Russia,” the spokesperson added. politico.com

NATO: Startegic Concept

The sword, the shield, and the hedgehog: Strengthening deterrence in NATO’s New Strategic Concept

23.08.2022 When NATO leaders gathered in Lisbon in 1952, the Alliance hoped to have 50 divisions available to deter Soviet attack. By the end of the Cold War it had over 100. At the end of June, with war raging in Ukraine and a revanchist Russia making nuclear threats towards its members, NATO’s leaders gathered a short distance away in Madrid with just eight forward-deployed battlegroups at their disposal.

In Madrid NATO revealed its new strategic concept and made significant force posture changes to bolster deterrence and defense. These measures were described by Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, as “the biggest overhaul of our collective deterrence and defence since the Cold War.” However, although the concept sets out a high level of ambition, NATO still has plenty of work to do to meet it. While the threat from Russia has returned to Cold War levels, NATO’s strategy is playing catch up. To close the gap, NATO should revitalize — and modernize — the basic tenets of the “sword and shield” strategy and the “hedgehog defense” that contained Soviet aggression. Focus Point: Great Power Competition.

Just as during the Cold War, NATO’s challenge will increasingly be to deter all forms of aggression at once: sub-threshold, conventional, and nuclear. To meet the level of ambition agreed in its new strategic concept, NATO should revitalize deterrence by sharpening its sword, boosting its shield and bringing back its hedgehog defense. Madrid was an important point of departure for NATO, but the alliance’s journey toward stronger defense and deterrence has only just begun. warontherocks

Focus Point: Western Balkans

The Western Balkans need a problem-solver, not a facilitator.

22.08.2022 The failure of the dialogue has ominous implications not just for the region, but for Europe’s longstanding approach to peacemaking. The war in Ukraine has ushered in a new era on the continent and emboldened local leaders to test the limits of brinksmanship. Merely facilitating dialogue between the two sides may no longer be sufficient.

The cause of recent tensions was Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s move to implement requirements that anyone entering Kosovo with Serbian identification documents needs to be provided a declaration sheet at the border crossing to temporarily replace the Serbian documents, and that cars bearing Serbian license plates for cities in Kosovo be replaced by plates issued by Prishtina. Belgrade continues to claim that Kosovo is a part of Serbia, so it sees acquiescing to Prishtina’s move as de facto recognizing Kosovo’s independence. Kosovo sees the move as reciprocal and fair, as Kosovars traveling to Serbia need to have Belgrade-issued documents on hand at all times.

None of these are new ideas. But we are in new times that require new vigor in pursuing ambitious statesmanship. Obviously, both Kurti and Vu?i? will ultimately need to make painful concessions. But the time for dialogue just for the sake of dialogue is behind us. The West must try to break the impasse. Doing anything less may prove disastrous. atlanticcouncil.org

Focus Point: Western Balkans

Kosovo-Serbia Deal on IDs Raises Implementation Question, Expert Says

Serbia and Kosovo agreed that neither side will require any additional documents for border crossings, besides those that people already have, like IDs, it was announced on Saturday.

However, the deal is only an oral agreement. Serbia’s President Vucic clarified on Sunday that this is “an oral agreement, the [previous] one in writing was made in 2011”.

In a meeting with his Vetevendosje party’s General Committee, Kurti defended the deal: “We are in a process of normalisation of relations [with Serbia] because our relations are not normal,” he said.

“We want to have normalization [of relations] and achieve this through a legally binding agreement centred on mutual recognition,” Kurti added on Sunday.

“We will work hard and accept solutions and formulas which will be implemented by Kosovo the same way that symmetrically they will be implemented by Serbia,” Kurti continued.

At a press conference in Belgrade, Vucic assured Serbs that this was not a step towards recognition of Kosovo’s independence, declared in 2008, explaining that a disclaimer will be put up at the border which will say: “Enabling the use of identity cards issued by Pristina (Kosovo) is done exclusively for practical reasons… It cannot be interpreted as recognition of the unilaterally declared independence of Kosovo. balkaninsight.com