The NATOVET Radar Weekly 22-28 June 2022
On the NATOVET Radar Weekly
22-28 June 2022
NATO-RUS: Lithuania- Kaliningrad- Suwalki Gap Polland
The most dangerous place on earth-‘The Baltics will be next’
20.02.2022 Former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves said he came up with the name “Suwa?ki Gap” minutes before a meeting with then-German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen in 2015 in an effort to raise alarm about the hole in Western defenses.
The worry is that in a conflict with the West, Russia could sweep into the corridor simultaneously from the east and the west, severing the European Union’s Baltic countries from their allies to the south. “It’s a huge vulnerability because an invasion would cut off Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia from the rest of NATO,” said Ilves.
Such a move would also result in an immediate faceoff between Moscow and NATO’s nuclear-armed members, pushing the world to the brink of world-ending confrontation.
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23.06.2022 So there are two points of a vulnerability here: one is on Russia’s side, you have a small piece of Russian territory cut off from the rest of Russia. It’s obviously a very fragile and weak situation, but it has nuclear weapons, probably, in it and it’s the key to the Baltic fleet, which is really quite important to Russia.
But we have a Western vulnerability too, which is, again, if you look at the map, you see a tiny sliver of territory between Poland and Lithuania called the Suwalki Gap. This is only about 60 miles of border and on both sides of this is hostile territory, if you will: Belarus on one side and Russia on the other. And that’s at the moment the only way NATO could defend the Baltic states on land is through this Suwalki Gap, so it could easily be closed off if Russia so decided. And that’s always been identified as probably NATO’s weakest vulnerability in the context of conflict. So if Russia wants to push its advantage here and Ukraine, it will maybe do something. It’s threatened to do something now.
Great Power Competition: Open Door
23.06.2022 Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia submitted applications for EU membership following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. On June 23, EU member governments decided to grant EU candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova.
Sweden and Finland have expressed their intent to join the military alliance, which would result in 23 out of 27 EU countries being NATO members or aspirants. This would leave only four EU countries — Austria, Cyprus, Ireland and Malta — outside the military alliance.
28.06.2022 NATO's plans to add two more Nordic countries to the military alliance "will likely drag on" as Turkey puts a block on accepting Sweden and Finland as members. That's the conclusion of a new report from the International Crisis Group which found that Turkey was "unlikely to simply back down on its demands" to Stockholm and Helsinki.
Finnish President Sauli Niinist?, Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Turkey's President Erdogan will meet with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenburg on Tuesday in the Spanish capital, but despite weeks of talks between senior officials little progress seems to have been made.
The NATO: Strategic Concept
23.06.2022 ?Sec-Gen Stoltenberg ?previews the transformative NATO Summit during a program hosted by POLITICO (moderated by POLITOCO’s Lili Bayer) on 22 June 2022. Here are the key takeaways for NATO Veterans:
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a.??????This was an invasion that was predicted, foreseen by our intelligence services and we shared that intelligence with the broader public last fall... The war in Ukraine did not start in February. It started in 2014. What we saw in February was an escalation with the second invasion by Russian forces. And when that happened, we were well aware we were very well prepared.
b.??????I expect in the 2022 Concept, for the first time, we will address China and the challenges it poses to our interests, security and values.
c.??????In this context, I welcome that the leaders of our Asia-Pacific partners – Australia -QUAD Member, Japan-QUAD Member, New Zealand and South Korea – will take part in our Summit for the first time. Three of four QUAD Members will join NATO Summit. India is the only member of QUAD not invited to the summit. (italics added)
d.??????What we see is that Lithuania, …it has to have consequences when President Putin violates international law and launches a brutal attack against a neighbour.
e.??????Fundamentally, NATO has two tasks. First task is to Provide support to Ukraine (italic added) … Second task is to prevent escalation.
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Great Power Competition: The New World Order
24.06.2022 It’s possible that governments will now use sanctions, tariffs, export bans, subsidies, and other forms of protectionism as everyday weapons to build resilience by enhancing security. Others will continue to seek resilience through a broader diversification of their partnerships.
27.06.2022 Even the most totalitarian countries can describe themselves as a democratic regime...When you look at the picture of the world today, you cannot see a single country that defines itself as anti-democratic or anti-human rights.
Our priority is world peace. If global peace is achieved, the most suitable environment will be created to discuss democracy and human rights. As people who know war, veterans are the group that can best understand and explain peace. ??
Great Power Competition: Economic sanctions
21.06.2022 “How much has the West lost in revenue by introducing all kinds of energy sanctions? $100 billion, $200 billion?" he said. “Had Ukraine got at least $50 billion worth of weapons instead of $10 billion, the situation would be completely different now — without any energy sanctions being introduced.”
July/August 2022 During World War I, for instance, the Allies imposed a comprehensive blockade against Germany, seeking to ratchet up pressure on the country by creating economic hardship for ordinary citizens. That blockade is estimated to have caused some 750,000 civilian deaths from malnutrition and disease. Notably, however, there is no evidence that civilian hardship played a role in the German high command’s decision to end the war.
RUS-UKR War: NATO VETERANS INITIATIVE was on the stage for the first time ever.
24.06.2022 Dr.Mustafa Kirisci, Assistant Professor of Homeland Security at DeSales University, and volunteering content editor, here, at NATO Veterans Initiative, participated in a live news program on AL24news - ???? ??????? ??????? and shared his views on the ongoing #ukrainerussiawar.
Dr.Mustafa Kirisci: “Imposing sanctions on Russia is vitally important to have Russia pay the price of violating territorial integrity of a country. On the other hand, negotiation channels with Russia should be open to end this war, and the Western actors should take an action to create these channels.”
Cyber Security Analyst
2 年Great piece! I love