On the NATOVET Radar Weekly (20-26 March 2023)
Focus Point: NATO
The NATO Secretary General’s Annual Report 2022 by NATO
21.03. 2023 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Tuesday (21 March 2023) launched his annual report for 2022, covering all aspects of the Alliance’s work over the past year.
Here are some takeaways from the Press release and the Annual Report:
Page 7: In Madrid, Allies also agreed a new Strategic Concept, NATO’s guiding document, to reflect this new security reality. Our new Strategic Concept identifies Russia as the most significant and direct threat to Allied security, it addresses the People’s Republic of China for the first time, and it sets out how we address other challenges like the ongoing threat of terrorism, as well as cyber, hybrid, new technologies and the implications of climate change on our security.
Page 14: In light of its hostile policies and actions, NATO cannot consider Russia to be a partner. The Russian Federation is the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area. However, NATO remains willing to keep open channels of communication with Russia.
Page 25: For the first time, the NATO Strategic Concept mentions the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The PRC's stated ambitions and coercive policies challenge Allied interests, security and values. The Strategic Concept states that the PRC's malicious hybrid and cyber operations and its confrontational rhetoric and disinformation target Allies and harm Alliance security. It further stresses that the PRC seeks to control key technological and industrial sectors and critical infrastructure, and uses its economic leverage to create strategic dependencies and enhance its influence.
Page 25: The deepening strategic partnership between the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation, which includes their mutually reinforcing attempts to undercut the rules-based international order, runs counter to Allied values and interests.
Page 25: NATO and the PRC are not partners. As stated in the Strategic Concept, the Alliance does not consider it an adversary and remains open to maintaining constructive engagements. Throughout 2022, NATO continued to engage with the PRC including through a third meeting between NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi in September.
Page 40: In 2022, the Programme of Work supported 28 cooperative projects in the following areas: countering unmanned aircraft systems; protecting harbours and other critical infrastructure; defending against terrorist use of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear substances; electronic warfare for aircraft survivability; use and sharing of biometric data; technical exploitation; and countering improvised explosive devices.
Page 59: In the statement of the North Atlantic Council on 29 September 2022 on the damage to gas pipelines in international waters in the Baltic Sea, Allies also stressed that any deliberate attack against Allies’ critical infrastructure “would be met with a united and determined response.”
Page 38: The threat from cyberspace is growing. Malign actors seek to degrade critical infrastructure, interfere with government services, extract intelligence, steal intellectual property and impede military activities. Allies also recognized that a single or cumulative set of malicious cyber activities could reach the level of armed attack and could lead the North Atlantic Council to invoke Article 5.
Focus Point: Great Power Competition-A Must Read
China Is Starting to Act Like a Global Power by WSJ
22.03.2023 China now sees itself as a global power—and it is starting to act like one.
Long reluctant to inject itself into conflicts far from its shores, Beijing is showing a new assertiveness as Xi Jinping begins?his third term?as the country’s head of state, positioning China to draw like-minded countries to its side and to have a greater say on global matters.
China is emerging from?three years of “zero-Covid” isolation?to a far more unfriendly West, and signaling that it feels it has the military and economic heft to start shaping the world more to its interests.
Earlier this month, Beijing surprised the world by?brokering a detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a bold foray into the Middle East’s turbulent rivalries.
Now, Mr. Xi says he wants to insert himself into?efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war, as he returns home from several days of warm meetings in Moscow with Russian President?Vladimir Putin, and?plans his first conversation?since the beginning of the war with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The moves might not result in lasting diplomatic breakthroughs, and China’s perceived inclination toward Russia on the Ukraine war, highlighted again this week in Moscow, has undercut Mr. Xi’s credibility as a neutral arbiter among Kyiv’s backers. Early Wednesday, as Mr. Xi was preparing to depart Moscow,?Russia launched?a new wave of missiles and armed drones?into Ukraine, killing four people in a school dormitory in the Kyiv region.
But China’s willingness to wade into these conflicts in such a strident way marks a new phase in the country’s vision for itself and its role in the world. It sends a message that China and its friends are no longer obliged to conform to a U.S.-led global order, and that Beijing poses a challenge to Washington as it tries to shape a world it sees as divided between democracies and autocracies.
That began to shift as China’s economic and political interests came to span the globe, with infrastructure projects tied to its?Belt and Road initiative?in Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia. It has hundreds of billions of dollars of investments and growing diasporas worldwide that must be protected, as well as a voracious appetite for strategic resources abroad.
In addition to his interventions on the Russia-Ukraine and Saudi-Iran conflicts, Mr. Xi has in the past few weeks promoted three new initiatives expanding his vision for the world, titled the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative and the Global Civilization Initiative. Though short on the particulars, their sweeping ideals seek to position China as a country with which nations that are wary of U.S. hegemony can do business, seek security guarantees and find respect.
While jumping into the fray on Russia-Ukraine and Saudi-Iran diplomacy, China has been active on other fronts recently,?winning diplomatic recognition from Honduras, one of Taiwan’s last remaining allies, and prompting Washington to race to reopen its long-shut embassy in the Solomon Islands, where diplomatic advances by Beijing have raised concerns in Washington of?rising Chinese influence across the Pacific islands.
China?has also stepped gingerly into Afghanistan, where the U.S.’s hasty retreat in August 2021 offered it a chance to establish itself as a more influential player. In Myanmar, rebels called this month for Beijing to intervene in that country’s civil war, another reflection of China’s growing stature. China last year?positioned itself as a neutral mediator in the Horn of Africa.
Entanglements in overseas conflicts could sap China’s dynamism, and if its peace deals fall apart, it could set back Beijing’s objectives by making the country look naive or impotent, undermining confidence in China among the countries that it is trying to win to its side.
Saudi-Iran mistrust runs deep, and making further headway might prove difficult. On Russia-Ukraine, even Beijing’s backers say that its 12-point peace plan sidesteps the most nettlesome issues dividing Moscow and Kyiv.?
Even so, said Dr. Mastro of Stanford University, Beijing might not need to deliver world peace to advance its interests. It merely wants to position itself as a benevolent power in a world dominated by Washington and U.S. military power.
“They are saying how embarrassing it is to the U.S. that they were able to do this on Saudi-Iran,” said Dr. Mastro, who is also a nonresident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank. “They’re trying to show the world that they are not a threat, that the United States is a threat, and this is another data point.” WSJ
?Focus Point: Cybersecurity
EU institutions, member states in competition over cyber intelligence by Euractiv
23.03.2023 The European Commission and the EU’s diplomatic service are setting up two competing initiatives to collaborate with private companies on cybersecurity threats. Meanwhile, EU governments appear keen to keep sensitive intelligence for themselves.
In recent months, the European External Action Services (EEAS), the bloc’s diplomatic arm, has been working on updating its EU Cyber Diplomacy Toolbox, an initiative to coordinate a diplomatic response to malicious cyber activities.
The proposal, briefly previewed in the EU’s military strategy, the so-called?Strategic Compass, was earmarked last year for implementing “preventive measures and sanctions on external actors for malicious cyber activities against the Union and its member states”.
As part of the revamping, the EEAS has engaged with cybersecurity companies and associations to develop a Public-Private Partnership, according to a series of documents seen by EURACTIV.
According to a discussion paper on the initiative,?“the EEAS is exploring setting up a structured and regular engagement with the private sector, which could be a platform for the exchange of high-level observations on strategic cybersecurity trends in the context of foreign and security policy”.
The EU’s diplomatic service has organised in recent months closed-door workshops in collaboration with the?European Cyber Agora, a multi-stakeholder initiative driven by Microsoft and the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
EU and US intelligence agencies have had a troubled history regarding intelligence sharing. Therefore, European companies are questioning to what extent the cyber threat information can be of high quality if Washington is involved, albeit indirectly.
However, with one month to go, the shape of this Public-Private Partnership remains undefined, as private companies currently do not see the advantage of sharing threat intelligence with the service, according to sources informed on the matter.
To make things worse, the European Commission is also working on a similar, but separate, initiative. The two EU services are working on separate groups with different approaches. The EEAS invited the Commission to attend its second workshop, but the EU executive did not send a representative.
Meanwhile, member states are also trying to keep cyber threat intelligence in their hands. Euractiv
?Focus Point: NATO-Critical Technologies
NATO Deputy Secretary General emphasises importance of adopting new technologies rapidly and responsibly by NATO
23.03.2023 Today’s new technologies are developing at a dizzying pace, and we all have a role to play in developing and deploying them responsibly and ethically. This was the message Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoan? gave during the launch of the NATO Science and Technology Organization’s 2023-2043 Trends Report in Brussels on Wednesday (22 March 2023).
Mr Geoan? emphasised new technologies are not just changing the way we live and work. Referring to Russia’s war in Ukraine, he highlighted that new technologies are also transforming the way wars are fought and won. He stressed NATO’s continued efforts to maintain and sharpen its technological edge through developing and adopting new technologies, while preserving value-led principles of responsible and ethical use in its approach. He also previewed the report, highlighting the addition of energy and propulsion, and electronics and electromagnetics to the list of disruptive technologies analysed. In addition, he lauded NATO’s unique network of over 5,000 scientists and engineers, underscoring that “this report would not be possible without your expertise and insights.”?
The NATO Science and Technology Organization’s 2023-2043 Trends Report updates and extends the previously published Science & Technology Trends: 2020-2040, reflecting the considerable geopolitical, technical and scientific developments that have occurred over the last few years. NATO
?Focus Point: NATO Members
Scoop: Turkey and Hungary Not Invited to Biden’s Big Democracy Summit
23.03.2023 Biden spurned NATO allies that are dismantling their democracies.
U.S. President Joe Biden leaves Turkey and Hungary off his invite list for a major democracy summit, Ukrainians train on Patriot missile systems in Texas, and armed Russian jets are overflying U.S. military positions in Syria.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has consolidated power and dismantled elements of the country’s democracy, but he faces the toughest challenge yet to his 20-year rule with?upcoming elections?in May.
Hungary, under Prime Minister Viktor Orban, has alienated itself within the European Union and NATO for its own democratic backsliding and Orban’s?close ties?with Russia, even in the aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Orban’s government, for its part, has constantly rebuffed criticism from Washington and its EU neighbors over accusations of backsliding, even as it blocks a steady stream of EU-wide initiatives on aid for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia.
The snub is likely to inflame tensions between Washington and the two NATO allies even further as well as widen the distance between the rest of the NATO and EU alliance and the two outliers. Foreign Policy
?Focus Point: Great Power Competition
We can’t lose China, EU leaders say ?by Politico
24.03.2023 Xi Jinping’s blooming bromance with Vladimir Putin is freaking EU leaders out. Now they’re booking flights to Beijing. European Union leaders used a summit in Brussels to raise the alarm about China’s strengthening relations with Russia.
A succession of European Union leaders used a?summit in Brussels?to raise the alarm about China’s ostentatious backing for Vladimir Putin this week, warning that they could not stand by while Beijing and Moscow cement an alliance that risks tipping the world deeper into crisis.?
The stakes in the shifting geopolitical dynamics could hardly be higher for Europe, or the wider world. A firmer partnership between China and Russia would risk escalating the Ukraine war into a conflict between NATO governments and Beijing, as well as Moscow.?
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At the same time, EU governments are drawing up plans to limit their reliance on China for critical raw materials such as lithium for electric car batteries.
The meeting, he said, showed that “China is not taking the role of a broker [but is] moving overtly on the side of Russia and this is a difficulty for all of us.” Kari?? added that Beijing has the driving seat in its relationship with Russia, but it remains unclear where they want to drive this relationship. Politico
?Focus Point: Russia-Ukraine War
U.S. dismisses China’s Ukraine peace proposal as an attempt to distract by Politico
24.03.2023 U.S. officials are scoffing at Beijing’s?much-anticipated Ukraine peace proposal?and urging the world not to get distracted from the imminent threat of China supplying lethal weapons to Russia.
China’s 12-point “Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis,” published Thursday, asserts vague support for “sovereignty,” “ceasing hostilities” and “resuming peace talks,” without specific proposals on achieving those goals.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken?told ABC News on Friday?that it showed China trying to draw the world’s eyes away from its support of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“China’s been trying to have it both ways — it’s on the one hand trying to present itself publicly as neutral and seeking peace, while at the same time it is talking up Russia’s false narrative about the war,” Blinken said. “There are 12 points in the Chinese plan. If they were serious about the first one, sovereignty, then this war could end tomorrow.”
The timing, however, is significant. The proposal comes after Blinken warned this week that China is?considering providing lethal weaponry to Moscow?to use against Ukraine.
The proposal itself falls short of what Beijing had promised. China’s top diplomat Wang Yi?touted last week?that the plan would include “important propositions” from Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping “conducive to a peaceful resolution of the conflict.” Instead it mostly restates Beijing’s existing positions on the war by linking it to the Kremlin’s “legitimate security concerns.”
And world leaders are coming out en masse to counter China’s messaging. Beijing’s peace proposal “doesn’t have much credibility because they have not been able to condemn the illegal invasion of Ukraine,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg?said on Friday. The EU would consider China’s proposals “against the backdrop that China has taken sides,”?said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Beijing helped earn that distrust by?abstaining from a United Nations’ resolution?on Thursday?demanding that Russia?immediately withdraw from Ukraine.
China can now market the plan in the global south as proof of Beijing’s dedication to peace and tell the U.S. and its allies “It’s your job to convince the Ukrainians [to stop fighting] — our mission here is accomplished,” Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center said.
The document’s publication means “China gets a PR victory upfront without doing anything,” Gabuev said. Politico
?Focus Point: Russia-Ukraine War
Russia’s game of nuclear chess is worrisome, American officials say by Politico
26.03.2023 Multiple American officials expressed concern over reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to move tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus, though the U.S. has not yet seen any moves by Russia to do do, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Sunday.
“We have not seen any indication that he’s made good on this pledge or moved any nuclear weapons around,” Kirby said during in interview on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “We’ve, in fact, seen no indication he has any intention to use nuclear weapons, period, inside Ukraine.”
On Sunday,?NATO criticized Russia?for what it described as “dangerous and irresponsible” nuclear rhetoric, though a NATO spokesperson said the organization had not seen any changes in Russia’s nuclear posture. Politico
?Focus Point: Russia-Ukraine War
‘Dangerous and irresponsible’: NATO condemns Putin’s nuclear-arms plan by NATO
26.03.2022 NATO criticized Moscow on Sunday for its “dangerous and irresponsible” nuclear rhetoric after Russian President Vladimir Putin?announced?he would deploy tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.
“NATO is vigilant, and we are closely monitoring the situation. We have not seen any changes in Russia’s nuclear posture that would lead us to adjust our own,” Oana Lungescu, spokesperson for the defense alliance, said in a?tweet.
The spokesperson criticized comments from Putin on Saturday that likened the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus to the U.S. stationing its nuclear arms in Europe as part of the NATO alliance.
Putin said on Saturday that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko?has agreed to the deployment and that the Kremlin would not transfer control of the nuclear arms to Minsk. Moscow has already stationed 10 aircraft in Belarus capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons, he said.
Russia used Belarus as a staging ground to send troops into Ukraine for Putin’s invasion of the country in February 2022. Moscow and Minsk have maintained close military ties as the Kremlin continues its war on Ukraine.
EU foreign policy chief?Josep Borrell?said Brussels stands ready to impose new sanctions on Belarus if Minsk were to house Putin’s nuclear arms. “Belarus hosting Russian nuclear weapons would mean an irresponsible escalation and threat to European security,” Borrell said in a?tweet?on Sunday. “Belarus can still stop it, it is their choice.”
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry on Sunday?appealed?for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council in reaction to Putin’s announcement. This followed earlier?condemnations?of the Russian move by Ukrainian officials.
“Ukraine expects effective actions to counteract the Kremlin’s nuclear blackmail from the United Kingdom, China, the United States and France. … We demand that an extraordinary meeting of the UN Security Council be immediately convened for this purpose,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement. NATO
Focus Point: Great Power Competition- Xi’s Russia Visit
Forging Ahead to Open a New Chapter of China-Russia Friendship, Cooperation and Common Development by Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the PRC
2023-03-20
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the PRC
President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping
-??????There is a clear historical logic and strong internal driving force for the growth of China-Russia relations.
-??????Together we have drawn the blueprint for the bilateral relations and cooperation in various fields, and have had timely communication on major international and regional issues of mutual interest, providing firm stewardship for the sustained, sound and stable growth of China-Russia relations.
?Vladimir Putin and?President of?the?People’s Republic of?China Xi Jinping made statements for?the?media following the?Russian-Chinese talks by The?Kremlin
March 21, 2023 The?Kremlin, Moscow
?
-???????The?President of?China and?I?remain in?touch at?all times. Apart from bilateral summits, we meet on?the?sidelines of?international events, and?regularly talk to?each other on?the?phone and?by?videoconference to?discuss matters of?mutual interest. This enables us to?resolve all issues, even the?most challenging ones, and?to?oversee all topical matters on?the?bilateral and?international agenda.
-???????When discussing topical international and?regional problems, the?President and?I?affirmed that Russia and?China’s views on?them are identical or?very close.
?Vladimir Putin’s Article for?People’s Daily Newspaper, Russia and?China: A?Future-Bound Partnership by The?Kremlin
March 19, 2023 The?Kremlin, Moscow
?-???????This landmark event reaffirms the?special nature of?the?Russia-China partnership, which has always been built on?mutual trust, respect for?each other's sovereignty and?interests.
-???????Yet the?main thing has remained unchanged: I?am talking of?the?firm friendship between Russia and?China, which is consistently growing stronger for?the?benefit and?in?the?interest of?our countries and?peoples.
Vladimir Putin and?President of?the?People’s Republic of?China Xi Jinping are holding talks at?the?Kremlin by The?Kremlin
March 21, 2023, The?Kremlin Moscow
?President of?Russia Vladimir Putin:
These two documents set forth long-term goals for?the?governments, businesses and?civil society of?our two countries in?terms of?delivering on?the?objectives we share, which deal with facilitating national development in?all areas.
?President of?the?People's Republic of?China?Xi Jinping?(retranslated):
Through our common efforts, Cino-Russian relations are evolving at?a?sound and?sustainable pace. Mutual political trust between our countries is deepening, common interests are multiplying, our nations are growing closer, and?cooperation in?the?trade, economic, investment, energy, cultural, humanitarian and?interregional dimensions is advancing.
?Xi, Putin sign joint statement on deepening comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for the new era by China Daily
China Daily
Updated: 2023-03-22 04:1
They said that different countries have different histories, cultures and national conditions, and they all have the right to choose their own development path. There is no such a thing as a superior "democracy." The Russian side highly regards the Global Civilization Initiative proposed by the Chinese side.
Thank you very much for your reading.