On the NATOVET Radar Weekly (16-22 September 2022)

Focus Point: Migration and Asylum- Violations at all borders

Two years after the EU Pact on Migration, migrants’ and refugees’ rights still violated

23.09.2022??In the Mediterranean, a record number of pushbacks by proxy were registered between Italy and Libya with 32,425 people returned to Libya in 2021 alone. Evidence of atrocious pushbacks at the Greek-Turkish borders have been adding up and came under scrutiny of the European Parliament. At the Spanish border, an unprecedented number of 4,404 deaths were registered in 2021 and recently 64 people went missing at the Nador-Melilla border.??euromedrights.org

Focus Point: Western Balkans

The past and the furious: How Russia’s revisionism threatens Bosnia

13.09.2022

·???????The war in Ukraine has given European policymakers a new understanding of how fragile peace is in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

·???????Russia’s main goal in Bosnia over more than two decades has been to keep the state divided and dysfunctional, and to prevent it from developing its own foreign policy – including joining NATO.

·???????Russia’s influence mostly works through Bosnia’s post-war constitutional arrangement, a power-sharing system that has given enormous power to local players whose goals and activities overlap with Russia’s interests.

·???????Russia’s economic presence in Bosnia is limited, and Republika Srpska, the country’s smaller entity, relies heavily on the EU for trade and aid, which would dry up if the entity seceded.

·???????The immediate threats to Bosnia are homegrown and regional, with revanchist and destabilising forces in Bosnia, Serbia, Croatia, and Hungary determined to undermine the state.

·???????The EU needs to substantially beef up on-the-ground deterrence, both political and military. This is essential not just for Bosnia’s sake, but for the EU’s credibility as a foreign policy actor.?ecfr.eu

Focus Point: Indo Pasific

The Wrong Way to View the Xi-Putin Meeting- A Must Read

13.09.2022

. Those countries, which used to be part of the Soviet Union, are deeply uncomfortable with Russian actions in Ukraine—threatened by them, perpetually under pressure from Moscow, and looking for some breathing space. Kazakhstan, in particular, has found ways to put a bit of distance between itself and Moscow over the war.

. For this reason, it seems more likely that Xi will continue what I have called the “Beijing straddle.” On the one hand, China will provide diplomatic support for Russia and broad commitments to a Beijing-Moscow entente whose principal rationale and focus is to counterbalance Washington and backfoot the favored global institutions and policy preferences of the transatlantic West and Japan. On the other, China will continue de facto compliance with Western sanctions to avoid painting a target on its own back, and it will deploy mealy-mouthed language about “peace” and “stability” aimed at placating the Central Asian nations and partners in the Global South that are uneasy about Moscow’s war in Ukraine.?carnegieendowment.org

Focus Point: The EU

State of the Union: Six takeaways from Ursula von der Leyen's keynote speech

19.09.2022?Ursula von der Leyen delivered on Wednesday her annual?State of the Union speech, unveiling the main political priorities for the next working year.

Russia's war in Ukraine and the worsening energy crisis were recurring themes in the address, giving the special occasion a markedly sombre undertone.

"As we look around at the state of the world today, it can often feel like there is a fading away of what once seemed so permanent," she said.

However, von der Leyen also injected doses of optimism and made a passionate case for a stronger and closer union emerging from the overlapping crises.

"We will succeed – and that success will belong to every one of us," she noted, quoting the late Queen Elizabeth II.

Here are the six takeaways from this year's State of the European Union address.

1. 'Sanctions are here to stay'

2. 'We have to decouple'

3. 'We must make nature our first ally'

4. 'A new reality of higher public debt'3. 'We must make nature our first ally'

5. 'We must also eradicate corruption at home'

6. 'A rethink of our foreign policy agenda'?Euronews

Focus Point: NATO Members-Türkiye

Erdo?an: Target is Shanghai Cooperation Organization membership

18.09.2022?President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an answered journalists' questions on the plane upon his return from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan.

Regarding the question about SCO membership, which has been on the agenda from time to time since 2016, Erdo?an said, "We attended here as a special guest at the invitation of the host Uzbekistan. Now the next process is a step towards the most advanced level of this business. Of course, this step will perhaps come to the agenda at a more advanced level in the talks in India, which will be the host of the next period. Being a member or not is all different, but our relations with these countries will be carried to a much different position with this step."

In response to the question "Do you mean to become a member?", he said, "Of course. That is the goal."?BBC

NATO:?Startegic Concept

NATO Chiefs of Defence discuss operationalisation of Madrid Summit decisions

17.09.2022?From 16 to 18 September 2022, the Allied Chiefs of Defence gathered for their annual conference, in Tallinn, Estonia. For the first time, Finland and Sweden attended the Military Committee Conference as NATO Invitees. The agenda reflected the changed security environment as well as the implementation of the decisions taken at the NATO Summit in Madrid, last June.

On the morning of the 17th of September, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Estonia Kaja Kallas set the scene for the day’s meetings. She stressed the importance of broad international support for Ukraine. In his opening remarks, the Chair laid out the agenda and expectations for the conference: “Without a doubt: a new era for global security has begun. The entire international rules-based order is under attack. And it is up to the free, democratic nations of the world to protect it. Winter is coming, but our support for Ukraine shall remain unwavering.”?nato.int

Russia-Ukraine War: How to deal with Putin

Retired general explains who could remove Putin from power

18.09.2022?Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Retired General Wesley Clark on CNN:

We have to move on to at two-track program. On one track, we've got to continue to assist the Ukrainians, including giving them more assistance. On the other track. It's time for the United States to tell, behind the scenes, our allies that we're gonna go to Putin and say "Get out, get out, account for all the people you just you abducted. Pay reparations, get out. And if you go through that, we're gonna increase the military assistance were given to Ukraine. They're gonna drive you out. "

So I think, you know, we have the momentum with us. We have the opportunity we've. Found this in the past. This is the way we work against Milosevic in the 1990s and we succeeded in that.?youtube

Russia-Ukraine War: Is Putin all alone? Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan.

Putin admits China has ‘questions’ and ‘concerns’ about Ukraine war

15.09.2022?Russian President Vladimir Putin made a highly unexpected public admission on Thursday that China’s leader Xi Jinping had “questions” and “concerns” over the war in Ukraine.

This acknowledgment of tensions with Beijing over the war is a dramatic reversal from February when, just before the invasion, Putin traveled to the Winter Olympics in China to proclaim a “no-limits partnership” with Xi.

China makes no reference to Ukraine in its statement after a Putin-Xi meeting.Beijing did mention Putin’s support on the subject of Taiwan in its statement. “Xi praised Russia for adhering to the One China Principle and stressing that Taiwan is a part of China,” it said.

Relations with Moscow are forcing Xi to tread a fine line. While he sees Russia’s value as an ally against the U.S. and NATO, he does not want to alienate Washington or the EU to the extent that he could face sanctions or other economic problems for being seen to aid the Russian war effort.?politico.eu

Indian leader Narendra Modi tells Putin: Now is not the time for war

17.09.2022?Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears to have directly rebuffed Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, telling Russian President Vladimir Putin that now is not the time for war.

In what was the latest in a series of setbacks for the Russian leader, Modi told him of the need to "move onto a path of peace" and reminded him of the importance of "democracy, diplomacy and dialogue".

The comments from Modi came during a face-to-face meeting on Friday, on the sidelines of a regional summit, and highlighted Russia's increasing isolation on the diplomatic stage. They came just a day after Putin conceded that China, too, had "questions and concerns" over the invasion.?CNN

How Ukraine makes Putin’s regional project crumble

17.09.2022?Chinese President Xi Jinping had some familiar words for his Uzbek counterpart, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who was waiting to greet him at the airport in Uzbekistan’s central city of Samarkand on Wednesday.

“There’s nothing better than living in friendship,” Xi said upon arrival, quoting medieval poet Alisher Navoi, whose works are deeply revered in Uzbekistan. Mirziyoyev seemed to appreciate the reference.

Shortly after, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s jet also landed in the Silk Road’s former focal point – but Mirziyoyev was not there to welcome him, sending his Prime Minister Abdulla Oripov instead.

But the bigger problem is that other ex-Soviet nations also tilt towards China – especially in Central Asia, Russia’s “soft underbelly” in the words of Putin’s predecessor Boris Yeltsin.

“We will witness the formation of a new bloc to counterweight the US, but not a ‘Russia-centric’ one, as the Kremlin tries to present in, but in the format of ‘Beijing and its comrade’s,” Kyiv-based analyst Igar Tyshkevich wrote on Facebook.

Some observers believed Russia’s struggles in Ukraine have only magnified the eclipse of Russia’s clout in former Soviet republics, which had already begun to wane.

“The process began earlier and just became more visible. They felt that Russia is not an indisputable leader in their regions, and are shaping their policies in accordance with reality,” Sergey Bizyukin, an exiled opposition activist from the western Russian city of Ryazan, told Al Jazeera.

“All of this shows centrifugal forces at work the way it was after the USSR’s defeat in Afghanistan,” Nigara Khidouytova, an exiled opposition leader from Uzbekistan, told Al Jazeera.

Russia’s weakness in Ukraine has jump-started processes similar to the ones that made the USSR collapse, she said. “I think the same destiny awaits Russia,” Khidouytova argued.?Aljazeera

NATO: Türkiye and Greece

Recurring Crisis Between Two NATO Allies - What Should NATO Do?

16.09.2022??NATO should closely monitor the situation, keep the deconfliction mechanisms active and take additional reconciliatory measures if tensions further escalate between the sides. It is really crucial to avoid the occurrence of an accidental incident which could trigger unexpected and unwanted reactions from both parties. In this context, NATO should continue inviting both Turkiye and Greece to act within the framework of international law and keep the communications channels open to resolve their problems.?NATO Veterans Initiative

NATO: Emerging Technologies

NATO steps up engagement with private sector on emerging technologies

15.09.2022?Leaders from the technology sector exchanged views on innovation and emerging and disruptive technologies with NATO Allies in the North Atlantic Council on Wednesday (14 September 2022).?

NATO is increasing its focus on new technologies, including with a Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA) and a multinational NATO Innovation Fund, to invest 1 billion euros in early-stage start-ups and other venture capital funds.??NATO’s new Strategic Concept sets out how Allies will work together to adopt and integrate new technologies, cooperate with the private sector, protect innovation ecosystems, shape standards and commit to principles of responsible use that reflect the Alliance’s democratic values and human rights.?nato.int

Thank you very much for your reading.