On the NATOVET Radar Weekly (07-14 October 2022)
Russia-Ukraine War: The Hesitant EU
EU open to 'dialogue' with Putin in UN resolution
10.10.2022??The EU is calling for "dialogue" with Russia in a draft United Nations resolution to condemn its annexation of Ukrainian territory.
UN countries and international bodies should support ending the war "through political dialogue, negotiation, mediation and other peaceful means" the latest draft text, dated Friday (7 October) and seen by EUobserver, said.euobserver
Russia-Ukraine War: The Kerch Bridge
Putin calls Kerch Bridge attack “a terrorist act” by Kyiv
10.10.2022?Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday called the attack that damaged the huge bridge connecting Russia to its annexed territory of Crimea “a terrorist act” masterminded by Ukrainian special services.
The Kerch Bridge, which holds important strategic and symbolic value to Russia in its faltering war in Ukraine, was hit a day earlier by what Moscow has said was a truck bomb. Road and rail traffic on the bridge were temporarily halted, damaging a vital supply route for the Kremlin’s forces.?apnews
Russia-Ukraine War: The Russian Missile Strikes
Russia Unleashes Its Biggest Barrage of Strikes on Ukraine Since Invasion
10.10.2022?Waves of Russian missiles slammed into Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities in one of the broadest and most intense barrages of the war, in response to a weekend attack Moscow blamed on Ukraine that seriously damaged a bridge connecting Russia to occupied Crimea.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had carried out dozens of strikes using missiles as well as Iranian-made drones to target the country’s electrical grid and other civilian infrastructure. “The occupiers cannot match us on the battlefield, and that is why they resort to such terrorism,” Mr. Zelensky said in a video address as he stood near a crater left by a strike in Kyiv.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday warned of a harsh response if Kyiv were to conduct further “terrorist attacks” following weeks of battlefield losses that culminated in the attack on the strategically important Kerch Strait Bridge.
Of at least 84 missiles that were fired at Ukrainian cities on Monday, 43 were intercepted, the general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said, adding that 13 drones were also shot down.
Ukraine’s emergency services said 14 people were killed and 97 injured across the country, with most strikes hitting electricity substations and other targets outside city centers, away from civilian homes. Power in more than half of Ukraine’s regions remained partially disrupted as of late Monday, and work was under way to restore damaged infrastructure, emergency services said.?wsj
Russia-Ukraine War:?The Russian Migrants
Central Asia Faces a Russian Migrant Crisis
04.10.2022??“Russian exiles are having to rely on the hospitality of a Central Asian population that has greatly suffered from stigmatization, racism, and discrimination under the pejorative label of “migrants” within Russian society. In a region where hospitality toward visitors is perceived as part of the national character, Russian émigrés have encountered a welcome reception. At the same time, there is palpable sense of anger and schadenfreude among some Central Asians at having to assist their former colonial oppressors. In Bishkek and Tashkent, the Uzbek capital, local activists and mutual aid groups have therefore placed an emphasis on organizing cultural sensitivity trainings and public lectures on the history of Russian imperialism and Soviet hegemony in the region. These initiatives aim to push Russians to think critically about their country’s past and help undo some of the prejudices toward Central Asia that have been so prevalent in Russian society.”?foreignpolicy
Russia-Ukraine War: NATO Defence Ministers Meeting
NATO steps up support for Ukraine, strengthens deterrence and defence
13.10.2022?NATO will further step-up support for Ukraine, while strengthening the Alliance’s defence and deterrence and working to increase the protection of critical infrastructure, Secretary General Stoltenberg said on Thursday (13 October 2022).
Speaking after a two-day (12-13 October 2022) meeting of Defence Ministers, Mr Stoltenberg praised the U.N. General Assembly's condemnation of Russia's attempted illegal annexation of four regions in Ukraine. “This is a clear and strong message that Russia is isolated and that the world stands with Ukraine,” he said, reiterating that NATO is not party to the conflict, but that Allies will continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes.
To further enhance Ukrainian defences, the Secretary General announced that NATO will soon provide Ukraine with hundreds of drone jammers for use against Russian and Iranian drones. Addressing Russia’s recent nuclear threats, the Secretary General made clear that President Putin’s nuclear rhetoric is dangerous and irresponsible and that any use of nuclear weapons by Russia would have “severe consequences”.?nato.int
Focus Point: The World Order
New geopolitical blocs will govern the future
09.10.2022?As nations across the world look to transition to electric vehicles, a new geopolitical bloc is forming in Latin America that could “call the shots” for everybody — from China to Tesla.
This new “lithium alliance” being eyed by Mexico, which nationalized its lithium industry earlier this year, would bring the country together with Argentina, Bolivia and Chile — the four nations controlling most of the world’s lithium — as they seek to govern the production and trade of a resource that’s fast becoming one of the most critical commodities in the world.?politico
Focus Point: The EU Solidarity
Olaf Scholz’s message to Europe: Germany First
10.10.2022?With Europe reeling from the impact of Russia’s war on Ukraine, Scholz has paid lip service to solidarity, while blazing his own trail for Germany. Whether the issue concerns arms deliveries to Ukraine or how to cushion the impact of surging natural gas prices, Scholz’s approach has been clear: Germany First.
Berlin’s plan to establish a €200 billion emergency fund to subsidize lower gas prices triggered a furious response from some European leaders last week. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki even accused Scholz of “egotism” and of “destroying” the single market. The concern is that the German subsidies will give the country’s manufacturers an unfair advantage over industry in other EU countries.?politico
Focus Point: The EU Solidarity
Why Europe’s defense industry can’t keep up
11.10.2022?Simply put, there just aren’t enough bullets, weapons and hi-tech systems in Europe to match the EU’s demands and looming dangers ahead. And the demand is high — since the war broke out in February, EU countries have pledged to spend more than €230 billion to modernize their arsenals.
But Europe’s security challenge presents a typical EU problem: success hinges on aligning the self-interests of 27 member states. Failure to do so, some argue, will only allow conflicts to fester.
The EU — and its European Defense Agency —?started offering tax breaks in?2015?that encouraged?member states to buy locally. More recently, the EU launched a €500 million?fund to cover joint procurement purchases in response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. But these efforts pale in comparison to the need or the actual cost of large weapon procurements.?
Additionally, geopolitics and bilateral relations are often the basis of where defense spending goes.?
From an EU perspective, keeping investments at home is also part of a broader desire to reduce foreign dependence on autocratic countries like China, which the EU and NATO have labeled a “systemic rival” that seeks to “undermine the rules-based international order.”
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But that doesn’t mean the EU will be able to act collectively — or swiftly. Ultimately, defense procurement decisions are made at the national level, subject to each country’s needs and influences.?politico
Focus Point: Russia
Russian ally cancels Russian-led military drill on its land
09.10.2022?The Central Asian nation of Kyrgyzstan on Sunday unilaterally cancelled joint military drills between the six nations making up the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, less than a day before they were due to start on its territory.
The Kyrgyz defense ministry did not specify the reason for cancelling the “Indestructible Brotherhood-2022” command and staff exercises, which were set to be held in the country’s windswept eastern highlands Monday to Friday.
Despite its apparent ambitions to provide a counterpart to NATO, the CSTO has at times struggled to define its exact purpose. Failure to engage in numerous security crises among its members over the years has prompted analysts to question its viability.politico
Focus Point: The Western Balkans- Bosnia and Herzegovina
Brussels recommends granting Bosnia the status of EU candidate, but with conditions
13.10.2022?The European Commission has recommended that Bosnia and Herzegovina be granted the official status of candidate country to join the European Union, but under the condition of further reforms.
The announcement represents a geopolitical step forward for the Balkan country, which has for months seen a rise in political infighting and ethnic tensions that threatens its delicate power-sharing system.
In June this year, the European Council affirmed it was "ready" to grant Bosnia the candidate status and asked the European Commission to report back on the implementation of 14 key priorities from its 2019 report, covering areas such as democracy, rule of law, fundamental rights and public administration reform.
"We expect from the leaders of Bosnia and Herzegovina to make full use of this opportunity and to make the following reforms as soon as possible," said Olivér Várhelyi, European Commissioner for neighborhood and enlargement, as he presented?the?2022 report.
Bosnia has spent almost two decades on the EU's waiting list: it was first identified as a "potential" EU candidate in June 2003 and submitted its formal application in February 2016.
If EU leaders approve Bosnia's bid, the Balkan country will join Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey, Ukraine and Moldova as official candidate countries.?euronews
Read more on the topic:?2022 Enlargement package: European Commission assesses reforms in the Western Balkans and Türkiye and recommends candidate status for Bosnia and Herzegovina
Focus Point: The Western Balkans- Serbia?
EU does not rule out suspending Serbia visa waiver over migration spike
14.10.2022?If Serbia fails to put a stop to irregular migration from its territory to the bloc, the European Commission will not rule out suspending Serbia’s visa-waiver access to the EU, the EU executive said on Friday (14 October).
According to Politico article?, Serbia has been increasingly at odds with the EU over its unwillingness to turn away from Russia since it invaded Ukraine.
EU diplomats are already frustrated that Serbia, an aspiring EU member, hasn’t followed Brussels in sanctioning Russia. And now there are also fears Belgrade is actually indirectly helping the Kremlin sow EU dissension via a fresh migrant influx — a tactic Russia is suspected of backing elsewhere along the bloc’s borders.
However, it noted Belgrade “took no steps to align with the EU’s list of visa required third countries”.
This would in particular concern “those third countries which present irregular migration or security risks to the EU, as recommended in the Commission’s visa suspension mechanism report” of last August.?euractiv
Russia-Ukraine War:?Military Assistance in Ukraine
EU’s weapons kitty runs dry as Ukraine seeks more arms
14.10.2022?The EU treaties bar the bloc from using its normal budget to fund military-adjacent operations. So officials tapped the so-called “European Peace Facility,” a financing instrument that lies outside the normal budget, to help speed up European arms deliveries. EU countries pay into the facility’s coffers and a committee representing each country makes unanimous decisions on how to disburse the money.
Ultimately, however, the funding fight has exposed a looming problem for the EU: The peace facility fund is simply too small to be the main financing vehicle if the Continent truly wants to become a more reliable security provider.
Some officials speculate that soon member countries will have to open their wallets and pour in more money if they want to be consistent.
“The fund is important, and we want to double it, if possible,” the freshly appointed Slovak Foreign Minister Rastislav Ká?er told POLITICO. “And of course, we are ready to increase our contribution in it, because all of us contributed to this fund.”?
Taking such a step, he added, “is not only important, economically, but this is also a political gesture precisely because … we should put the money where our mouth is.”?politico
Russia-Ukraine War:?Put-in /Put-out
Russia-China-US-EU: Putout
04.10.2022?According to Kissinger last week President Xi misjudged Putin’s ability to conquer Ukraine in three days. (Beijing suffers under the same phenomenon that its diplomats and ‘experts’ report what capitals want to hear, not what happens). So, Xi, says Kissinger, is “recalibrating”. No further challenging of the US and distancing from Putin. A stronger pressure on Russia to stop violence.
So while the Chinese military build-up is even fastened, for now Beijing’s goal is a start of negotiations. But a real push for that may only follow when Putin understands Putout.?
It must be noticeable to all actors. Weaknesses such as humanitarianism and values make societies pursuing transparency and democracy survive while being the kiss of death for autocratic and authoritarian regimes.
Today the sun graces Ukrainian autumn colors quite similar to an American Indian Summer. The Soviet-built bunkers throughout Ukraine once meant to withstand American missiles; they now keep Putin’s weapons out. As Churchill said: “The Americans always do the right thing – after trying out everting else first.”
Thank you very much for your reading.