On the NATOVET Radar Weekly (06-12 March 2023)
Focus Point: Russia-Ukraine War
To punish Putin, the West must talk to the Global South as partners by Politico
06.03.2023 As the United Nations Assembly prepares to vote on the creation of a special tribunal to adjudicate a charge against Russia for the crime of aggression, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: In order for Russian President Vladimir Putin to be punished for his decision to launch an unprovoked war against Ukraine, the West needs the support of others.
Or, as Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar?put it?last year, Europe needs to grow out of the mindset that its problems are the world’s problems, but the world’s problems aren’t Europe’s problems.
Thus far, there’s unfortunately little to indicate that Europe, the United States or Ukraine have managed to accomplish this — which also explains why Russia’s having limited yet tangible success in the non-Western world, India included.
There’s no reason to expect this sentiment will change just because we think there’s an urgent need for it to do so. After all, it even took a good decade for the West to realize that the policy of appeasing Putin wasn’t wise.
However, this doesn’t mean that Ukraine and the West are incapable of changing minds
Many of these countries — like China, for example — are pragmatic. And China, despite allegedly planning to send lethal weapons to Russia and refusing to denounce Moscow’s aggression, still seems unwilling to fully support Putin either. Russia may deem itself a serious geopolitical player, but Beijing’s key trade partners are still the EU and the U.S. Politico
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Focus Point: The European Security
Why European Defense Still Depends on America by foreignaffairs
07.03. 2023 It has become clear that American arms sales to Europe have come at a cost to the transatlantic alliance. Every weapons sale to Europe weakens the European defense industrial base by depriving a European company of its core market.
The U.S. State Department should therefore consider the impact of American arms sales on the defense industrial base of the NATO alliance when it weighs whether to advocate such purchases.
More broadly, instead of merely pushing European countries to spend more on defense, the United States needs to use its leverage to encourage European military cooperation. It could instead encourage a coordinated defense planning effort between NATO and the EU that encourages the European production and procurement of certain critical capabilities deemed essential by both organizations. As long as Europeans fail to act, think, and spend collectively, the continent will never outgrow its overreliance on Washington. foreignaffairs
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Focus Point: Great Power Competition
China warns U.S. about crossing 'red line' on Taiwan independence by asia.nikkei
07.03.2023 Beijing warned Washington on Tuesday that interfering with Taiwan's future is the "first red line" in Sino-U.S. relations, as ties plunge to new lows.
During a two-hour press briefing that touched on the Ukraine conflict, Japan-China relations and a recent spat over a suspected Chinese spy balloon, China's Foreign Minister Qin Gang repeated Beijing's claim that Taiwan was part of its territory and could be taken by force, if necessary.
Holding up a red booklet containing China's constitution, the former ambassador to the U.S. said his country's legal framework called for the "peaceful" reunification with Taiwan. Earlier in the day, the island's defense minister, Chiu Kuo-cheng, said "repeated provocations" from China could trigger an armed response.
"The Taiwan question is the core interest of China, the bedrock of the political foundation of China-U.S. relations, and the first red line that must not be crossed in China-U.S. relations," Qin said in his debut media briefing on the sidelines of the National People's Congress, an annual meeting of parliament. "The United States has unshakable responsibility for causing the Taiwan question." asia.nikkei
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Focus Point: The European Security
Facebook faces May D-Day for European blackout by Politico
07.03.2023 Tech giant’s tool to transfer personal data to the US legally is expected to be annulled mid-May — an alternative tool could only come in July.
Meta is facing a major legal decision within months that could see it shutter its Facebook service in Europe.
Ireland’s privacy chief Helen Dixon, who heads the Irish Data Protection Commission (DPC),?told POLITICO?she was “very likely” to strike a final verdict on Facebook’s last legal tool for sending personal data to the U.S. before the European Union and the United States manage to roll out a new data-transfer agreement. The DPC?in July?issued its draft decision to suspend the legal tool, which is now pending approval by fellow privacy regulators in Europe and would be finalized by mid-May.
That means that U.S. tech giant Meta, which owns Facebook, is expected to find itself without the tools to legally transfer personal data like family pictures and geolocation data to the U.S. for its Facebook service. ?Politico
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Focus Point: Russia-Ukraine War
NATO Secretary General at EU Defence Ministerial: we must boost ammunition stockpiles, ramp up production by?NATO
08.03.2023 Arriving at a meeting of EU Defence Ministers on Wednesday (8 March 2023), NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg underlined the importance of strengthened ammunition stockpiles and more joint procurement
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Focus Point: Cybersecurity
US-China chip war: Netherlands moves to restrict some tech exports by BBC
09.03.2023 The Dutch government is to put restrictions on the country's "most advanced" microchip technology exports to protect national security, following a similar move by the US. It will include products by chip equipment maker ASML, a key firm in the global microchip supply chain.
In response, China has launched a formal complaint against the move. It said it hoped the Netherlands would not "follow the abuse of export control measures by certain countries".
ASML said in a statement?that it expects the restrictions to apply to its "most advanced immersion DUV systems".
The company added that "based on today's announcement, our expectation of the Dutch government's licensing policy, and the current market situation, we do not expect these measures to have a material effect on our financial outlook."
Lithography machines use lasers to print miniscule patterns on silicon as part of the manufacturing process of microchips.
Since 2019 the Dutch government has stopped ASML from selling its most advanced lithography machines to China. BBC
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Focus Point: NATO- Open-door policy
NATO Secretary General hosts meeting of senior officials from Türkiye, Finland and Sweden by NATO
09.03.2023 On Thursday (9 March 2023), NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg convened representatives from the governments of Türkiye, Finland and Sweden - the parties to the Permanent Joint Mechanism established by the Trilateral Memorandum signed in Madrid on the margins of the 2022 NATO Summit. This was the third such meeting of the Permanent Joint Mechanism since its creation last year.
The Secretary General, who opened the meeting, said: “Finland and Sweden have taken unprecedented steps to address legitimate Turkish security concerns. It is now time for all Allies to conclude the ratification process and welcome Finland and Sweden as full members of the Alliance ahead of the upcoming NATO Summit in Vilnius”.
As agreed in the Memorandum, there are no arms export restrictions between them; they have significantly enhanced counter-terrorism cooperation; and Sweden is now in the process of tightening anti-terrorism legislation, including against the PKK.
Türkiye, Finland, and Sweden also agreed on the long-term value of the Permanent Joint Mechanism in fighting terrorism and agreed to continue cooperation in this format and meet again before the Vilnius Summit. NATO
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Focus Point: Russia-Ukraine War
‘Not much left’ on Russia sanctions, other support needed now, says EU’s Borrell by euractiv
10.03.2023 The EU has nearly exhausted its options for punitive measures against Russia and the bloc’s attention needs to shift to financial and military support
“There is not much more to do from the point of view of sanctions, but we can continue to increase financial and military support,” Borrell told EURACTIV in Stockholm, following a meeting of EU defence ministers.
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”It would be strange that one year after the invasion began, there would be much more options left. We have been using our step-by-step process, and we have been incremental – maybe sometimes too incremental,” he added.
Over the past year, the EU has approved 10 rounds of sanctions against Moscow meant to make financing the war more difficult and starve Russia of tech equipment and spare parts for arms to be used against Ukraine.
“But indeed, one year after the invasion, we’re getting to the end of the ladder,” Borrell admitted when asked about the next potential steps the bloc could take in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. euractiv
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Focus Point: The Western Balkans
Serbia gives definite ‘no’ to Kosovo recognition, NATO accession by euractiv
10.03.2023 Serbia will not agree to Kosovo joining NATO, nor will it recognise Kosovo in any way, President Aleksandar Vucic told the TV show??irilica.
On??irilica, Vucic spoke of the upcoming round of Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, his meeting with EU Special Representative for the Dialogue Miroslav Lajcak next week as well as of Lajcak’s current meeting with Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti.
“I can hardly imagine any progress being made in that meeting. I am almost positive that Kurti will not be forming the Serbian Municipalities Association. Kurti is being encouraged to continue disregarding previous commitments”, Vucic said.
Regarding the European proposal for the normalisation of relations between Belgrade and Pristina, Vucic reiterated his negative view of the plan but confirmed that Serbia must remain in the negotiation process.
“I have no intention of signing Serbia’s capitulation. But we need to be aware of the circumstances. There will be no surrender, no capitulation. I have undoubtedly made it clear that Serbia will not agree to Kosovo joining NATO, nor will we recognise Kosovo in any way”, Vucic said.
“Serbia is ready to make many compromises. The Albanians, in my opinion, are not”, he added.
EU ministers approve Kosovo visa liberalisation days before Belgrade-Pristina meeting by euractiv
10.03.2023 The decision to liberalise visas for citizens of Kosovo was approved by the 27 EU ministers at the Council of Internal Affairs in Brussels on Thursday, which must come into effect no later than 1 January 2024.
Kosovo was the last remaining country in the region to still require a visa to enter the European Union, causing significant headaches for Kosovars wanting to work, study, travel for leisure or visit family members.
After years of obstacles and changing requirements, the Commission proposed to lift the visa requirement to ensure the whole Western Balkan region is under the same visa regime.
The decision was approved in the first reading without discussion, as the permanent representatives of each member state had previously agreed on the matter in an earlier ambassadors’ meeting.
As per the decision, Kosovo citizens can travel visa-free when the European Travel Authorisation and Verification System (EITAS) is fully operational no later than the start of 2024. euractiv
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NATO Secretary General: Albania plays a key role promoting stability in the Western Balkans by NATO and euractiv.
07.03.2023 The Secretary General thanked Albania for playing a key role in promoting stability and cooperation across the Western Balkans, a region of strategic importance to NATO. Mr Stoltenberg also welcomed Albania’s contributions to NATO deployments, including in Latvia, Bulgaria, Kosovo, and Iraq, and Albania’s pledges of aid for Ukraine.
“And it is great to have a President of Albania that knows NATO so well as you do. Because you have been the Chief of Defence of a country, and therefore, we all know that you know this Alliance in many, many different ways. And that is a strength for all of us and the whole organisation,” the NATO chief said, adding, “Albania is a valued Ally with a long history of stepping up to support NATO Allies and partners.” NATO and euractiv.
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Focus Point: Great Power Competition
Iran and Saudi Arabia signal the start of a new era, with China front and center by CNN
11.03.2023 When?Saudi Arabia and Iran buried the hatchet?in Beijing on Friday, it was a game-changing moment both for a Middle East shaped by their decades-old rivalry, and for?China’s growing influence in the oil-rich region.
The announcement was surprising yet expected. The two regional powerhouses have been in talks to re-establish diplomatic relations for nearly two years. At times, negotiators seemed to drag their feet, the deep distrust between the two countries appearing immovable.
Iran’s talks with Saudi Arabia were unfolding at the same time as negotiations between Iran and the United States to revive the 2016 nuclear deal were faltering. The outcomes of both sets of Iran talks seemed interlinked – Riyadh and Washington have long walked in lockstep on foreign policy.
But a shift in regional alliances is afoot. Saudi Arabia’s relationship with the US has become strained in recent years, while China’s standing has risen. Unlike Washington, Beijing has shown an ability to transcend the many rivalries that criss-cross the Middle East. China has forged good diplomatic relations with countries across the region, driven by strengthening economic ties, without the Western lectures on human rights.
In retrospect, Beijing has been poised to broker the conflict-ridden Middle East’s latest diplomatic breakthrough for years, simultaneously underscoring the US’ diminishing regional influence.
“While many in Washington will view China’s emerging role as mediator in the Middle East as a threat, the reality is that a more stable Middle East where the Iranians and Saudis aren’t at each other’s throats also benefits the United States,” Trita Parsi, the executive vice president of the Washington-based Quincy Institute, tweeted Friday. CNN
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Focus Point: Russia-Ukraine War
Little fissures’: The U.S.-Ukraine war unity is slowly cracking apart by Politico
12.03.2023 The United States and Ukraine have largely been in lockstep since President Joe Biden’s administration pledged support for “as long as it takes” in resisting Moscow’s relentless invasion.
But more than a year into the war, there are growing differences behind the scenes between Washington and Kyiv on war aims, and potential flashpoints loom on how, and when, the conflict will end.
Publicly, there has been little separation between Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, an alliance on full display last month when the American president made his covert,?dramatic visit to Kyiv. But based on conversations with 10 officials, lawmakers and experts, new points of tension are emerging: The sabotage of a natural gas pipeline on the floor of the Atlantic Ocean; the brutal, draining defense of a strategically unimportant Ukrainian city; and a plan to fight for a region where Russian forces have been entrenched for nearly a decade.
Multiple administration officials have begun worrying that Ukraine is expending so much manpower and ammunition in Bakhmut that it could sap their ability to mount a major counteroffensive in the spring.
Intelligence analysts do not believe Zelenskyy or his aides were involved in the sabotage, but the Biden administration has signaled to Kyiv — much like it did when a car bomb in Moscow killed the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist last year — that certain acts of violence outside of Ukraine’s borders will not be tolerated.
The administration hasn’t provided those long-range missiles because there are few to spare in America’s own arsenal. There’s also fear that Ukraine might strike faraway Russian targets, potentially escalating the war.
Though Biden has pledged steadfast support, and the coffers remain open for now, the U.S. has been clear with Kyiv that it cannot fund Ukraine indefinitely at this level. Though backing Ukraine has largely been a bipartisan effort, a small but growing number of Republicans have begun to voice skepticism about the use of American treasure to support Kyiv without an end in sight to a distant war. Politico
Focus Point: Cybersecurity-Report
A Language of Power? Cyber defense in the European Union by iss.europa
November 2022 In November 2022, the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) Report published a unique cyber security report, ‘A Language of Power? Cyber defense in the European Union and Cyber Capabilities’.
Here are some takeaways:
Cyberattacks are generally likely to be destructive by nature, while cyber espionage activities aim at intelligence gathering
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is also considering using more advanced capabilities such as ‘integrated network electronic warfare’, which would enable it to insert malicious algorithms into an adversary network even if a wire connection does not exist… The PLA has both the capability and the will to penetrate adversary systems for the purpose of intelligence collection and offensive operations
The Chinese ‘model’, as opposed to the still dominant ‘Californian’ model, is centered upon the so-called Great Firewall at home and technological control abroad, and it relies on huge manpower resources and close coordination between state authorities and private players – thus potentially threatening US cyber superiority and fostering a ‘bipolar’ cyberspace (page 21).
Cyber espionage activities are generally distinguished in two categories: on the one hand, political cyber espionage; on the other hand, economic cyber espionage (page 53).
The SolarWinds case, in December 2020 in the US, was a cyber espionage campaign example in which state-backed hackers including a group of Russian hackers allegedly linked to the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) penetrated the victim’s computer systems to access and steal data (page 56).
The US, the only country in tier one, has a world-leading strength in all the categories in the IISS cyber-power methodology.?In the National Cyber Power Index 2022, the US has leadership in capabilities of ‘Norms, offense, and information control’, China is the champion of ‘surveillance.’ As expected,?Russia is very capable in ‘information control and offense’ (page 20).
Thank you very much for your reading.