NATOVET Radar Monthly August 2022
On the NATOVET Radar Monthly
August 2022
Contents
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Focus Point: Western Balkans
Rethinking NATO engagement in the Western Balkans-ndc.nato.int
June 2022 Russia’s presence in the region is felt through its military and security expenditure. So far, Serbia has acquired MiG fighter jets, Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft systems and Kornet anti-tank guided missiles. In return, Russia has donated tanks and combat vehicles to Belgrade.These strengthening ties have culminated in the opening of a Russian office within the Serbian Ministry of Defence, and in increasing joint military exercises between the two countries – 96 in 2019 alone.
It is in the political domain, however, that Russian actions exert most disruption in the Western Balkans. In an effort to hinder the remaining countries’ Euro-Atlantic integration, Moscow has backed ultranationalists across the region. In BiH, Milorad Dodik, the Serb?member of the tripartite presidency, has received full support in his efforts for RS to secede from BiH, while also obstructing progress with BiH’s Membership Action Plan (MAP). In Montenegro, Russia orchestrated a failed coup d’état in 2016 in order to thwart the country’s accession to NATO. In North Macedonia, Russia supported pro-Russian political forces in undermining the Prespa agreement – a prerequisite for NATO membership.
China, on the other hand, has used the 17+1 framework under the Belt and Road initiative to engage with local leaders looking for ambitious infrastructure and defence projects. In Serbia, the total amount of Chinese funding has reached USD 11 billion.
While the Chinese footprint is mainly limited to economic investments, its recent actions have signalled a rapprochement with Russian political positions in the region.13 However, Russia’s actions pose a greater risk to NATO than China’s in the Western Balkans, because they exploit political, societal and ethnic divisions in order to curb public support for NATO membership, European integration and liberal Western institutions. ndc.nato.int
Focus Point: Western Balkans
Russia’s war in Ukraine finds echoes in the Balkans-TheWashingonPost
01.08.2022 On Sunday, a ruling party member of Serbia’s parliament even tweeted that Serbia may “also be forced to begin the denazification of the Balkans,” invoking the same spurious framing through which Putin justified his invasion of Ukraine.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic “looks at our countries as temporary countries and tries to deny our very existence,” Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani said. It is “the very way Putin looks at Ukraine, Moldova and other countries. It is exactly the same strategy.”
Serbia, unlike Russia, is a candidate for European Union membership and occupies a more complicated position within Europe. But the new geopolitics triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine has pushed Vucic into a corner. TheWashingonPost
Russia-Ukraine War: Grain Deal
First ship carrying Ukrainian grain leaves Odesa port-politico.eu
01.08.2022 Sierra Leone-flagged cargo ship Razoni finally set sail after weeks of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, carrying 26,000 tons of Ukrainian corn according to a?statement?from Ukraine's infrastructure ministry. The ministry added that 16 additional ships are waiting their turn to leave the port. Under the deal, Moscow?committed not to attack merchant vessels?exporting grain from Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi. However, within 24 hours of the deal being signed, Russia had already?struck?Odesa with missiles and hit port infrastructure facilities. politico.eu
Focus Point: Afghanistan
Biden's al Qaeda strike reveals an inconvenient truth about America's war on terror-CNN
02.08.2022 The killings of key terrorist leaders have become increasingly commonplace, as the attacks they used to plot or inspire dwindle in their impact on the West, and the West's counter-terrorism capability grows.
But taking out the head of al Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, on a balcony in one of the fanciest neighborhoods in Kabul -- a city from which the US withdrew in chaos a year ago -- is no everyday feat. It is a shocking display of what twenty years' experience hunting terrorists has left the US capable of.
Yet it leaves a predictable lesson in its wake: Afghanistan has remained a safe haven for terrorists over the past decade -- they just didn't carry out attacks from there that meant we paid attention. But the fact that Zawahiri lived there in plain sight debunks the febrile spinning that went on in the lead-up to the US withdrawal. It does, though, teach us two lessons: Firstly, that despite its humiliating but strategically inevitable withdrawal from Afghanistan, the US retains a long reach and a long memory. It is still pursuing justice for a twenty-year-old crime. There is a resolve here, and given the Biden administration's support for Ukraine, that cannot go unnoticed by the US's adversaries.
But the second lesson is darker: That people don't always change. That, even after the ravages of the NATO presence in Afghanistan, and the damage and chaos brought to that country by the Taliban's decision to allow al Qaeda to shelter there decades ago, some part of the Taliban chose to give them a home there again.
The scene still baffles me: that in an area where for twenty years Westerners and connected Afghan officials would bask in comfort behind secure walls, a US drone strike killed the leader of al-Qaeda -- who thought he could relax on a balcony in the dawn light. CNN
Focus Point: Indo-Pacific
NATO-ACT: Strategic Foresight Regional Perspectives Report on the Indo-Pacific-act.nato.int
02.08.2022 In line with NATO’s effort to comprehend the future strategic and military environment, the Strategic Foresight Regional Perspectives Report on the Indo-Pacific represents a brilliant resource, together with the on-going series of Regional Perspectives Reports. The initial research on the Indo-Pacific region involved NATO nations, NATO entities, academia, think tanks and a talented group of 15 Subject Matter Experts from around the world who presented their findings to nearly 100 participants.( The Indo-Pacific Report is available?here .)
By placing interest on regional trends with security implications relevant to NATO worldwide, notably geopolitical, economic, environmental, human-related and technological, the report underscores the complexity of the region, including China’s rise and its strategic partnership with Russia, and provides perspectives and scenarios on how the future of that region may look like in 2040 and beyond.
To conclude, the release of the Indo-Pacific Report is crucial in the aftermath of the 2022 Madrid Summit and the adoption of a new NATO Strategic Concept. The rise of China and its destabilizing effects on the Indo-Pacific region require the Alliance’s collective attention and a comprehensive understanding of the implications of an expanding Chinese influence.?The analysis and the strategic scenarios identified in the Report facilitate the understanding of the NATO’s challenging role in the region and its primary goal to ensure and maintaining a stable maritime order in order to mitigate threats to regional stability and global economic supply chains. act.nato.int
Focus Point: Indo-Pacific
Nancy Pelosi arrives in Taiwan as China puts military on high alert-theguardian
02.08.2022 Nancy Pelosi has landed in Taiwan for a controversial visit to the self-ruled island, offering “unwavering commitment” to supporting its democracy as already heightened?tensions with China escalate .
Timed with her arrival, China’s ministry of defence said the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had been put on “high alert” and announced a series of targeted military operations, including missile tests in the waters east of?Taiwan ?and drills encircling the main island for four days after Pelosi leaves
Reuters earlier reported that four US warships, including a carrier strike group led by the USS Ronald Reagan, were positioned in waters east of the island on “routine” deployments.
A number of analysts said a hostile military act from China is unlikely but that the response was likely to exceed any others seen in recent years.theguardian.com
NATO: Open Door Policy
The Senate emphatically backs NATO expansion. What’s next?-?atlanticcouncil
03.08.2022 It was a landslide. With a tally of 95-1, the US Senate voted on Wednesday to ratify an amended NATO treaty adding Sweden and Finland to the Alliance. The bipartisan blowout means that twenty-three of the thirty allies have now approved the expansion inspired by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. What political hurdles remain and what will Brussels, Helsinki, and Stockholm be up to in the meantime? Our NATOlogists brek down the big news.
The countries that have yet to ratify the amended treaty are the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, and Turkey. While the political machinations continue from Ankara to Athens to Prague, military leaders are hard at work preparing to welcome two sophisticated militaries into the Alliance and make sure they “are integrated, ready, and effective to maximize deterrence of Russia,” Missouri Republican Josh Hawley tells us. atlanticcouncil.org
Russia-Ukraine War: Stoltenberg “We pay a price for our support to Ukraine.”
NATO Secretary General on Ut?ya: we must stand for our values, support Ukraine-nato.int
04.08.2022 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg addressed the Workers’ Youth League (Arbeidernes ungdomsfylking, AUF) on the Norwegian island of Ut?ya on Thursday (4 August 2022), underscoring the importance of continued support for Ukraine.
We pay a price for our support to Ukraine. For the military, humanitarian and financial support. For the sanctions, which have resulted in increased inflation and higher prices in our countries. But remember – the price we pay may be measured in money. The price Ukraine pays is measured in human lives. Hundreds killed or wounded every day.
What we see now is a brutal and bloody war of attrition. The Russian advance has stalled again. And the Ukrainians have shown the ability to strike back and take back territory, and are planning a counter-offensive in the south. nato.int
Focus Point: Indo-Pacific
The Coming War Over Taiwan-wsj
05.08.2022 This peaking-power syndrome—the tendency for rising states to become more aggressive as they become more fearful of impending decline—has caused some of the bloodiest wars in history. Unless the U.S. and its allies act quickly, it could trigger a conflict that would make the war in Ukraine look minor by comparison.First Chair of the Military Committee to attend Indo-Pacific Chiefs of Defence Conference. wsj.com
Focus Point: Great Power Competition
US-China relations The US and China are decoupling, but not as fast as you think- ft
07.08.2022?Decoupling has a credible ring. There is already visible political momentum for it on both sides. Proponents of the more rapid decoupling thesis have a fair stack of evidence on their side.
The narrative may also be gaining traction outside the US and its closest Asian allies. In a note to clients last week, analysts at Gavekal Dragonomics identified a deepening consensus within the EU to treat China as both an economic and a security threat.
For now, at least, there are three significant constraints on the accelerated decoupling story.
·????????The first is that the US ability to bring others along with the programme may be more fragile than it looks, even with a close ally such as Japan. As decoupling is increasingly pushed through legislation or regulation, questions over the underlying intention will intensify. Efforts to protect national and economic security are fine; deliberate hobbling of the Chinese economy will win fewer converts.
·????????The second is that, on both the Chinese and US sides, corporate resistance to accelerated decoupling will be quietly substantial, however noisy the politics becomes. The business relationships, investments and supply chains are not trivial ties that can be quickly unwound, and the Chinese market is still the most attractive long-term growth bet. Chinese companies cannot yet afford a cliff-edge exit of foreign technology and a sudden break in their learning curve.
·????????The third issue is time. ft.com
NATO: Open Door Policy
Sweden and Finland are on their way to NATO membership. Here’s what needs to happen next.- atlanticcouncil
08.08.2022 Thanks to a last-minute agreement, it appears that Finnish and Swedish membership in NATO is not a question of whether but when. Even though some analysts have posited that these two countries—especially Finland, which has an 830-mile border with Russia—bring disqualifying liabilities, most Alliance leaders, NATO-watchers, and European security experts argue these newest aspirants will strengthen the Alliance. This is especially so in terms of military capabilities and capacity, but also in terms of strategic culture and geostrategic outlook. atlanticcouncil.org
Focus Point: Indo-Pacific
China’s New White Paper Lays out Vision for Post ‘Reunification’ Taiwan- ?thediplomat
11.08.2022 For the first time, Beijing leaves open the possibility of an extended military occupation after unification, adding to fears that Taiwanese would be subject to a “re-education” campaign.
The white paper also provides a realpolitik justification: “National reunification is the only way to avoid the risk of Taiwan being invaded and occupied again by foreign countries, to foil the attempts of external forces to contain China, and to safeguard the sovereignty, security, and development interests of our country.” Later, the white paper repeats accusations that the U.S. is “using Taiwan to contain China” and “undermine China’s development and progress.”
The white paper maintains the stance that time is on China’s side when it comes to Taiwan. The rise of China’s economic and military might is seen as “a key factor” in “the realization of complete national reunification” – both as a deterrent to “separatist activities” on Taiwan and as a positive force attracting more Taiwanese to China. thediplomat
Russia-Ukraine War: Russia
Russia’s Repeat Failures- foreignaffairs
15.08.2022 But for such a Ukrainian strategy to have the best chance of success, it must be in progress before Russia attempts to annex the territory it holds; that way, Ukrainian attacks can deny Russia a foothold in an area like Kherson. And even if Russia does annex Ukrainian territory and tries to force an operational pause, Kyiv and its Western supporters don’t have to comply. Russia’s overall ambitions for Ukraine, after all, remain intact. Moscow wants to annex large parts of Ukraine, it wants to demilitarize the country so that the government cannot fight against its actions, and it wants a pro-Russian leader in Kyiv. The sad reality is that annexing four regions is unlikely to be the end of Russia’s mission in Ukraine, but just one phase in Putin’s much longer project. Both Ukraine and its backers must be prepared for a protracted war. foreign affairs
Russia-Ukraine War: Russia a state sponsor of terrorism ?
Will the United States designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism?- atlanticcouncil
15.08.2022?As the Russian invasion of Ukraine approaches the six-month mark, pressure is mounting on the Biden administration to designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. The move enjoys bipartisan backing in Congress and is seen by supporters as a proportionate response to mounting evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine. However, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has expressed his reluctance to confirm the designation, while Moscow has warned that any such step would represent a diplomatic “point of no return” in relations between Russia and the United States.
Designation would have potentially painful consequences for Moscow and could create significant new barriers to Russian engagement with the outside world. As well as introducing additional restrictions on US economic interaction with Russia, it would also put pressure on international companies that are still conducting business in Russia. Additionally, individuals would be able to sue Russia in US courts.
The designation debate is clearly far from over. Critics insist the move risks damaging relationships with US allies and would further reduce the possibility of any constructive dialogue with Moscow. At the same time, there is also widespread awareness that current sanctions measures have failed to bring Russia to the negotiating table or end the slaughter in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian atrocities continue to mount with millions of Ukrainians in occupied regions of the country facing the threat of crimes against humanity on a daily basis.?
Supporters say the time has now come to designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. They argue that this would send a necessarily powerful message to Moscow while also reducing the Kremlin’s ability to finance the invasion of Ukraine. If the State Department remains reluctant to take this step, Congress may attempt to do so. atlanticcouncil.org
Focus Point: Western Balkans
NATO Secretary General meets Prime Minister of Kosovo Mr. Albin Kurti from Kosovo and the President of the Republic of Serbia, Mr. Aleksandar Vu?i?.- natomultimedia.tv
16.08.2022 On Wednesday, 17 August 2022, the NATO Secretary General, Mr. Jens Stoltenberg, will receive Mr. Albin Kurti and the President of the Republic of Serbia, Mr. Aleksandar Vu?i?.
The press conference will be streamed live on the NATO website .
The video will be available for free download from the NATO Multimedia Portal after the event.
A transcript of the Secretary General’s remarks, as well as pictures taken by NATO photographers, will be available on the NATO website. natomultimedia.tv
Focus Point: Western Balkans
NATO Secretary General met Prime Minister of Kosovo Mr. Albin Kurti from Kosovo and the President of the Republic of Serbia, Mr. Aleksandar Vu?i?.- nato.int
17.08.2022 Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg met with Prime Minister of Kosovo Mr. Albin Kurti and the President of the Republic of Serbia, Mr. Aleksandar Vu?i? at NATO Headquarters on Wednesday (17 August 2022).
In a joint press conference with Prime Minister of Kosovo Mr. Albin Kurti, the Secretary General welcomed the recent easing of tensions in the north of Kosovo and urged all parties to “act with restraint and avoid unhelpful rhetoric”.
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also met with President Aleksandar Vu?i? of Serbia at NATO Headquarters on Wednesday (17 August 2022), saying he welcomed the opportunity to continue discussions on recent tensions in northern Kosovo. While noting that the situation on the ground has improved, Mr Stoltenberg called on all sides “to show restraint and to avoid violence”.
Mr Stoltenberg further called on Belgrade and Pristina to “engage positively and constructively” in the upcoming round of EU-facilitated talks on Thursday, calling the dialogue "the only way towards sustainable peace". nato.int
Russia-Ukraine War: China
China to send troops to Russia for military exercises-euronews
18.08.2022 Beijing will send troops to Russia to take part in joint military exercises later this month to "deepen cooperation" between the two militaries, the Chinese defence ministry said.
China and Russia enjoy close defence ties and Beijing has said it wants to take bilateral relations "to a higher level", despite international condemnation over the war in Ukraine.
According to a statement released on Wednesday, China will take part in the annual "Vostok" exercises - scheduled from 30 August to 5 September according to Moscow - as part of its cooperation with Russia.
Other countries taking part in this year's Vostok exercises include India, Belarus, Mongolia and Tajikistan.
Washington regularly expresses concern about the rapprochement between China and Russia, saying it endangers global security.euronews
Focus Point: Western Balkans
The Western Balkans need a problem-solver, not a facilitator.- atlanticcouncil
22.08.2022 The failure of the dialogue has ominous implications not just for the region, but for Europe’s longstanding approach to peacemaking. The war in Ukraine has ushered in a new era on the continent and emboldened local leaders to test the limits of brinksmanship. Merely facilitating dialogue between the two sides may no longer be sufficient.
The cause of recent tensions was Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s move to implement requirements that anyone entering Kosovo with Serbian identification documents needs to be provided a declaration sheet at the border crossing to temporarily replace the Serbian documents, and that cars bearing Serbian license plates for cities in Kosovo be replaced by plates issued by Prishtina. Belgrade continues to claim that Kosovo is a part of Serbia, so it sees acquiescing to Prishtina’s move as de facto recognizing Kosovo’s independence. Kosovo sees the move as reciprocal and fair, as Kosovars traveling to Serbia need to have Belgrade-issued documents on hand at all times.
None of these are new ideas. But we are in new times that require new vigor in pursuing ambitious statesmanship. Obviously, both Kurti and Vu?i? will ultimately need to make painful concessions. But the time for dialogue just for the sake of dialogue is behind us. The West must try to break the impasse. Doing anything less may prove disastrous. atlanticcouncil.org
NATO: Startegic Concept
The sword, the shield, and the hedgehog: Strengthening deterrence in NATO’s New Strategic Concept-warontherocks
23.08.2022 When NATO leaders gathered in Lisbon in 1952, the Alliance hoped to have 50 divisions available to deter Soviet attack. By the end of the Cold War it had over 100. At the end of June, with war raging in Ukraine and a revanchist Russia making nuclear threats towards its members, NATO’s leaders gathered a short distance away in Madrid with just eight forward-deployed battlegroups at their disposal.
In Madrid NATO revealed its new strategic concept and made significant force posture changes to bolster deterrence and defense. These measures were described by Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, as “the biggest overhaul of our collective deterrence and defence since the Cold War.” However, although the concept sets out a high level of ambition, NATO still has plenty of work to do to meet it. While the threat from Russia has returned to Cold War levels, NATO’s strategy is playing catch up. To close the gap, NATO should revitalize — and modernize — the basic tenets of the “sword and shield” strategy and the “hedgehog defense” that contained Soviet aggression. Focus Point: Great Power Competition.
Just as during the Cold War, NATO’s challenge will increasingly be to deter all forms of aggression at once: sub-threshold, conventional, and nuclear. To meet the level of ambition agreed in its new strategic concept, NATO should revitalize deterrence by sharpening its sword, boosting its shield and bringing back its hedgehog defense. Madrid was an important point of departure for NATO, but the alliance’s journey toward stronger defense and deterrence has only just begun. warontherocks
Focus Point: Great Power Competition
When Trade Leads to War: China, Russia, and the Limits of Interdependence-foreignaffairs
23.08.2022 Yet if expectations of future trade turn sour and leaders come to believe that the trade restrictions of other states will start to reduce their access to key resources and markets, then they will anticipate a decline in long-term economic power and therefore military power. They may come to believe that more assertive and aggressive policies are necessary to protect trade routes and ensure the supply of raw materials and access to markets.
If Chinese officials suspected that the United States might take steps to cut off Chinese access to Taiwanese chips, they might determine that it is necessary to take the island now to avoid long-term economic decline.
But here’s the good news. Chinese expectations for future trade, as Japanese expectations were in 1941, are a function of American policy decisions. If U.S. officials understand that their policies directly shape the way Beijing sees the future commercial environment, not just in overall trade but in high-tech trade as it relates to Taiwan, they can avoid making Chinese Communist Party leaders feel their economy will collapse unless they act forcefully. The spirals of hostility that can lead to war stem from choices, not given realities. By reassuring Beijing that China will continue to receive semiconductors from Taiwan—even if not the sophisticated machines from the Netherlands needed to make them—the Biden administration can moderate Beijing’s concerns about future trade and reduce the likelihood of crisis and war. foreignaffairs
Russia-Ukraine War: Six months, twenty-three lessons
What the world has learned from Russia’s war in Ukraine?- atlanticcouncil
24.08.2022 Six months, twenty-three lessons: What the world has learned from Russia’s war in Ukraine?
1. ??????????Lesson for Western diplomacy: Don’t second-guess Ukrainians
2.??????????Lesson for global diplomacy: Putin’s regime can’t be trusted—and needs to be defeated
3.??????????Lesson for US foreign policy: The United States can no longer rely on strategic ambiguity
4.??????????Lesson for US national security: Washington must contend with Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran?? at the same time
5.??????????Lesson for military operations: Equipment doesn’t win wars. People do.
6.??????????Lesson for military planning: Nimble modern weapons can defeat larger, conventionally ????????????armed forces— especially when on the defensive
7.??????????Lesson for deterrence: Troop deployments work better than threats of economic sanctions
8.??????????Lesson for the global economy: The new tools of conflict are economic—and they are ?powerful
9.??????????Lesson for economic statecraft: Don’t separate sanctions from longer-term foreign-policy ?????????objectives
10.????????Lesson for economic statecraft: Sanctions work, but they are messy and take time
11.????????Lesson for wartime strategic communications: Influence operations are a day-in, day-out job
12.????????Lesson for hybrid warfare: Don’t ignore the fundamentals
13.????????Lesson for the energy sector: Decades of energy diplomacy can disappear with one brutal ????????invasion
14.????????Lesson for global intelligence: Russia is not ten feet tall
15.????????Lesson for would-be invaders: You can’t hide preparations for a full-scale invasion
16. ????????Lesson for cybersecurity: The private sector should play a critical military-operational role in ???cyberspace
17.????????Lesson for US homeland security: Ignoring the home front is a serious mistake
18.????????Lesson for US assistance policy: Invest deeply in key resilient partners
19.????????Lesson for NATO: The Alliance is a uniquely valuable institution that requires enduring political and financial investment
20.????????Lesson for Ukraine: There’s no way back for relations with Russia???????????
21.????????Lesson for China: Today’s Ukraine is not tomorrow’s Taiwan?????
22.????????Lesson for Middle East policymakers: America will always do the right thing, but only after ???????exhausting all the alternatives??????
23.????????Lesson for Germany and its allies: Seize this moment for a strategic reversal.” atlanticcouncil.org
Focus Point: Great Power Competition
Why so few countries in the UN supported Ukraine-ukrainainc
27.08.2022 It seems that the thesis that the world is getting cold and tired of the war in Ukraine is getting its practical confirmation. On August 24, following the results of the UN Security Council meeting, 58 countries signed a statement on the half-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Why are there so few and why are there not many of the world’s leading countries among them?
There are 193 states in the UN, and only 58 of them signed the statement. That is, the statement in favor of Ukraine was signed by less than a third of the countries that are part of the United Nations Organization.
The fact that almost half of the large G20 countries — China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa — did not support the UN statement is particularly disturbing.
Taras Zahorodniy, political scientist:?Here we need to look not at the number, but at the quality of the signatories. Well, what about the fact that less than a third of the countries signed the UN statement. However, these countries produce 60 percent of the world’s GDP, that’s what is important for us... But the important thing here is that their support for Russia is mainly limited to words. They, for example, did not give and do not give Moscow weapons for the war with Ukraine. ukrainainc.net
Focus Point: Western Balkans
Kosovo-Serbia Deal on IDs Raises Implementation Question, Expert Says- balkaninsight
29.08.2022 Serbia and Kosovo agreed that neither side will require any additional documents for border crossings, besides those that people already have, like IDs, it was announced on Saturday.
However, the deal is only an oral agreement. Serbia’s President Vucic clarified on Sunday that this is “an oral agreement, the [previous] one in writing was made in 2011”.
In a meeting with his Vetevendosje party’s General Committee, Kurti defended the deal: “We are in a process of normalisation of relations [with Serbia] because our relations are not normal,” he said.
“We want to have normalization [of relations] and achieve this through a legally binding agreement centred on mutual recognition,” Kurti added on Sunday.
“We will work hard and accept solutions and formulas which will be implemented by Kosovo the same way that symmetrically they will be implemented by Serbia,” Kurti continued.
At a press conference in Belgrade, Vucic assured Serbs that this was not a step towards recognition of Kosovo’s independence, declared in 2008, explaining that a disclaimer will be put up at the border which will say: “Enabling the use of identity cards issued by Pristina (Kosovo) is done exclusively for practical reasons… It cannot be interpreted as recognition of the unilaterally declared independence of Kosovo. balkaninsight.com
Russia-Ukraine War: Iran’s drones and the satellite on Iran’s behalf
First of ‘hundreds’ of Iranian drones arrives in Russia-politico
30.08.2022 The U.S. confirms that Russia has received two types of drones from Iran, the Mohajer-6 and Shahed-series, Defense Department spokesperson Todd Breasseale told POLITICO, corroborating earlier reports. The drones can be used to conduct strikes, electronic warfare and targeting, he noted.
Beyond the drone transfers, the U.S. has seen recent reports that Russia launched a satellite with “significant spying capabilities” on Iran’s behalf, the spokesperson said.
“This demonstrates that as Russia endures costs on the battlefield in Ukraine, it is experiencing difficulties in sustaining its own weapons, as it looks to countries like Iran for capabilities to sustain its forces,” according to the spokesperson.
“It also makes the case for U.S. engagement in the region so we don’t leave a vacuum for China or Russia,” the spokesperson added. politico.com
Russia-Ukraine War: Cyber operations-“ indirect substitution”
Why Cyber Dogs Have Yet to Bark Loudly in Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine-tnsr.org
Summer 2022 In a recent study, we examined whether cyber operations mostly serve as complements to, or substitutes for, conventional conflict, or whether the two forms of conflict more often occur independently. Our statistical analysis of global conventional military campaigns over an 11-year period suggests that, with a few notable exceptions, cyber operations are rarely used as either complements to or substitutes for conventional military operations. Instead, countries tend most often to use these two types of operations independently of one another, due to both the difficulty of coordinating them and the different political purposes served by the two modes of conflict. Ultimately, our results show that, while cyber operations are far more likely to be used independently of conventional warfare than as a direct substitute for or complement to it, there is an indirect link between cyber and conventional conflict: The more access a country has to the internet, the more likely it will be involved in cyber conflict, whether as the target or the aggressor. We call this effect “indirect substitution.”
The old Clausewitzian dictum still holds, even in the 21st century: Warfare is the continuation of politics, even by an increasing number of other means. But the goals of politics are heterogeneous, and the means themselves differ in their efficaciousness, depending on the goal. Cyber war is first and foremost about information — its control and utilization as a means of realizing political goals Because it is primarily an informational domain, cyberspace is most useful in pursuing informational goals. In Ukraine, we can see that this is precisely what Russia is doing: using the internet to seek to shape the beliefs of Ukrainian citizens and perhaps also to glean better insights about the conduct of the war and order of battle, both in practice (i.e., against Ukraine) and in prospect (i.e., against NATO and the West generally). tnsr.org