Will National Politics Change if Kejriwal wins in Delhi?

A new opinion poll by Polstrat confirms AAP is looking comfortable to return to power in Delhi. An earlier survey by C-Voter too indicated a win for AAP. The only data point that is suggesting a BJP win is Google Trends. With 12 days to go for the Election, momentum could still change in favour of BJP.

Why is AAP likely to retain the momentum?

• AAP is perceived to have delivered on critical promises around water, electricity and education
• BJP has made a poor case on issues that AAP has not delivered on - Public Transport, Infrastructure and Security
• BJP is itself struggling on the economy and very ordinary governance by the MCD
• No major leadership challenger against Arvind Kejriwal

Why is AAP likely to lose momentum?

• BJP won a massive vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. If it retains even half of the gains from 2019 Lok Sabha, the party could be within a fighting chance
• There are many issues on which AAP has not delivered - Transport, Wifi, Female Security etc. Further, the delivery on education is questionable. Lastly, the economy has not exactly done very well
• BJP could still change the tide in its favour by announcing an acceptable CM candidate who could then challenge Kejriwal. Add an aggressive manifesto and BJP could still win the Delhi elections
• Congress is likely to perform much better in 2020 thereby hurting AAP in critical seats

Impact of the 2020 Delhi elections on National Politics

Some key statistics about AAP

1. Until 2016, Kejriwal often appeared in national polls ahead of most regional leaders
2. On Google Trends, Until early 2017, AAP performed favourably versus the Congress party nationally
3. AAP won about 1% of the vote nationally in 2014 and 0.4% of the vote nationally in 2019. It won 18% in Delhi, 7% in Punjab and 3% in Goa in 2019

So, looking at the past data it appears AAP had an emotional connect with voters but did not have the ground presence or seriousness to convert that connect to votes. One of the main reasons for this is that the party is quite young and also because two year post the 2015 election, Arvind Kejriwal came across as another regional leader indulging in petty politics and not as a visionary leader to the Indian voters

Why things could be different for AAP if they win Delhi?

1. The win would come in the middle of CAA-NRC protests, an issue on which the Govt appears to enjoy the support of just half the population (as opposed to say article 370 where the support for the Govt is much stronger)
2. The economy is in a downward spiral and even if there is some recovery, it gives a strong opposition a chance to corner the Government
3. Most of the opposition is literally absent (or not credible) versus Modi while a large section of voters appear to be preferring Modi due to lack of options (about 1 in 3 voters). This opens a window for AAP and Arvind Kejriwal

Why things would not be different for AAP even if they win Delhi?

1. Arvind Kejriwal's conduct after the 2015 election showed poor leadership attributes and it is unlikely to change a lot of voters mind overnight
2. AAP has literally no presence on the ground in most States
3. AAP is a very urban centric party while rural India continues to make up for bulk of the population

In Sum

Latest surveys indicate AAP looks comfortable to return to power in 2020 Delhi. There is still some scope for a surprise given that there are 11 days to go for the election. Should AAP win, it opens the party for opportunities in National politics given the fragmented opposition space at the moment. However, given the poor on ground presence and previous volatile experience with Arvind Kejriwal, it will take sometime for the party to break through the national scene.