What potential does the Grey Belt hold for the UK housing landscape? The National Picture

This article marks the third instalment in our series examining the emerging Grey Belt strategy on a national scale. As previously highlighted, the government aims to build 1.5 million homes in the next five years. If successfully implemented, the Grey Belt initiative could play a pivotal role in meeting this ambitious target. This comes in the context of housing delivery under the previous government falling consistently behind national targets. An average of 240,282 new homes were delivered per year from 2018 to 2022; representing a combined gap of nearly 300,000 homes in that timeframe. With the new Labour government adopting even more aggressive targets, innovative strategies like repurposing Grey Belt land could be key to delivering homes on a larger scale.

Our research has uncovered nearly 14,000 potential Grey Belt sites across England and Scotland. Of these sites identified they could collectively accommodate up to 525,000 new homes, representing a substantial opportunity to address the housing shortage. In partnership with CACI, our research reveals that 36% of all home movers in these regions live within two miles of a potential Grey Belt site. To put this into perspective, nearly five million potential home movers are currently situated within the catchment areas of these sites. This emphasises the strategic importance of Grey Belt land, not only in providing housing but in meeting demand where people are already seeking to relocate.

The fact that one in three movers live so close to these sites is a powerful indicator of the relevance of Grey Belt land in addressing the housing needs of a growing, mobile population. This proximity strengthens the case for rolling out the Grey Belt strategy on a national level, offering immediate and long-term benefits to communities in need of affordable housing solutions.

Using CACI’s Acorn segmentation we have uncovered that recent housing development has tended towards a few demographic clusters, for example “Tenant Living” neighbourhoods have received 18% of new housing stock despite accounting for just 12% of home movers. Whilst this reflects the industry growth of specialist rental products, it also serves to illustrate why a more targeted approach is needed to tackle the UK’s housing crisis. Opening up underutilised land for development will be particularly impactful if it benefits a wider range of demographics, such as the "Hard-Up Households" and “Cash-Strapped Families” groups that have received 2.8% and 3.6% of new homes respectively, despite accounting for 6.5% and 6.5% of movers.

Further research conducted by CACI highlights the potential of Grey Belt sites to serve undersupplied groups. Data reveals that movers living within the catchment of potential Grey Belt sites skew towards the lower-affluent groups which have historically been underserved in new housing developments. Groups such as "Limited Budgets" (6.1%), "Hard-Up Households" (8.4%), and "Cash-Strapped Families" (7.3%) are over-represented movers within the catchment of the Grey Belt; highlighting the opportunity that the Grey Belt has to provide highly targeted housing delivery for these historically undersupplied groups.

This shift indicates that the Grey Belt holds immense potential to cater both to the population as a whole but specifically to these underserved demographics, offering new housing opportunities that align more closely with the needs of lower-income populations. By unlocking development in the Grey Belt, the government has the opportunity to meet its housing targets while addressing the imbalances in housing availability for a broader spectrum of society. This strategy is not just about numbers; it’s about making housing accessible and affordable for the people who need it most.

VirginLand use technology and data to connect developers with the most compatible landowners and sites. Operating as an ‘outsourced land department’ that generate off-market and exclusive acquisition opportunities for its retained clients. In coming instalments we will be taking a closer look at the specific dynamics at play across different regions. If you have any questions please contact [email protected].

* Does not include unregistered land parcels in Scotland