National Infrastructure Plan 2050 (draft) - Government's Vision for the Civil and Construction Industry

INTRODUCTION

On the 10?? of August, 2021, the Department of Public Works and Infrastructure published the draft National Infrastructure Plan 2050 ("NIP 2050") for public comments. The 72 page document identifies four "mission-critical infrastructure areas" and states a vision, status assessment, conditions for success and recommendations for each. The four infrastructure areas are energy, freight transport, water and digital communications.

Minister of Public Works and Infrastructure Patricia De Lille stated that a second iteration of the NIP 2050 will be published wherein distributed infrastructure and related municipal services will be addressed. A date for this was not made available in the statement.

The tone of the draft NIP 2050 is initially optimistic, somewhat overly so, where statements such as

are later contrasted by the grim assessments of reality such as

Those of us hardened by the reality of the state of the industry are tempted to view the vision as fantastical at best, but, by definition, vision is the ability to plan for the future with imagination or wisdom. I would argue that the definition should be "imagination AND wisdom", especially in terms of the vision for the state of national infrastructure and the industries and governing around it. Such vision is critical for a healthy infrastructure development sector and therefore we are to be aware of it as well as the role we are to play in pursuing it.

HISTORY REPEATED?

In 2012, nearly a decade ago, the Presidential Infrastructure Coordinating Commission (PICC) released its National Infrastructure Plan complete with a 20-year planning framework. Although this plan was structured differently to the NIP 2050, it shared the common goal of improving service, spurring on development and generating growth in the engineering and construction industry among others.

The approach used in the 2012 NIP was to identify 18 Strategic Integrated Projects (SIPs) in several different sectors such as minerals, water, transportation/logistics, social and energy. The funding of this was to lead to an increase in jobs and thereby a "significant increase in tax base and tax revenues". With the sharp rise in unemployment to record levels even before the Covid pandemic, this did not pan out as planned. According to the NIP 2050 the "construction sector employment fell by about 35% between 2014 and 2019".

The scene post-Covid is even bleaker with consultants now also feeling the heat as they rush to cut costs and downscale to avoid closing down completely. Backlogs of unpaid fees and delayed awarding of tenders are wreaking havoc on the civil consulting and construction industry - another section of the national tax base which is also shrinking. At about halfway through the 20-year framework, it is safe to say we are not on track.

The blame cannot solely lie on the implementation of the NIP however. The NIP's purpose is to be an overview of the direction we are to take, whereby individual municipalities and institutions align their individual master plans, infrastructure development plans, water services development plans, etc. Failure at those levels will naturally result in failure at the national level.

So what has been achieved since 2012?

The outdated NIP Web Page lists some positive points which have been achieved thus far, including progress on the 18 SIPs. Although many of these projects were still in planning or early phases when the reports were last updated.

The NIP 2050 also mentions some signs of progress such as the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy allowing the increase of embedded generation to 100MW, Transnet Freight Rail allowing third-party operators to make use of its branch network and soon its main network, and the significant improvement in digital communications network rollouts. One could argue these are mostly concessions made by government to allow the private sector to make its own advances in energy, logistics and communication where government struggled to do so themselves. Nonetheless, these are steps in the right direction.

This phrase in NIP 2050's review of government's current capacity to plan and execute projects summarises it nicely:

"There is considerable evidence of diminishing capability to plan, finance, procure and implement critical network infrastructure. While there is also evidence of success, overall the aggregate numbers show diminishing outcomes that are not delivering to SA’s long term agenda for employment, equity and poverty eradication."

THE ROAD TO 2050

Accountable. Robust. Coherence. Sustainability. Buzzwords abound in the sections of the NIP 2050 where the vision for the future is discussed. Given that we're all guilty of abusing buzzwords in our reporting, it is best we look past this and focus on subject matter. First off, the document admits the well-known fact that infrastructure development is a critical component of a country's economic and social success, and that the public sector is vital in leading the charge.

The plan also involves the 18 SIPs from the 2012 NIP. According to NIP 2050, the remainder of the incomplete SIPs which are relevant to the the four sectors of NIP 2050, are to be augmented and delivered by 2023/24. Several new SIPs are to be added to the various sectors as well. Mention is also made of priority actions which are to be delivered in 3 years time as a starting point in achieving the greater vision.

Energy

A large focus of the energy vision is to dramatically reduce the reliance on fossil fuel by shifting to cleaner, renewable energy sources. This will certainly have negative impact on the current stakeholders in electricity generation, and so the NIP 2050 envisions the transition to cleaner energy to include support for those current stakeholders.

Freight Transport

The shift back to rail freight transport is envisioned for the future, with less reliance to be placed on road transportation for long freight hauls.

Government would also like more focus to be placed on the creation of special economic zones (SEZ) being developed around intermodal linkage nodes. This is all in an effort to optimise logistics in pursuit of a more efficient value chain.

Water

In terms of water supply, emphasis is placed on efficient management of existing infrastructure; especially the maintenance and rehabilitation of it. This is to reduce the amount of non-revenue water lost to leakages and inefficiencies as South Africa's hubs face a looming "Day Zero" threat.

Another point is to improve on the efficiency of the water use license processes with reformed regulatory framework which allows for private participation in water provision.

Digital Communications

We are in a difficult position where government is pushing for the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) in South Africa where arguably more people first need secure access to basic services and employment before worrying about high-speed internet access. But, in order to not get left behind the rest of the developing nations, we do need the shift to a wider, more accessible digital communications network as is envisioned by NIP 2050.

We can all agree that the digitisation of government services such as those performed by traffic department and home affairs is long overdue. NIP 2050's vision is to identify such services and augment them into the SIPs.

Financing

In order to achieve the infrastructure Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) as well as the National Development Plan's (NDP) infrastructure goals, an estimated R6.2 trillion will be required between 2016 and 2040. Government plans to institute a Financial Centre of Excellence to support regional projects and promote a blended project finance model.

A large emphasis is also (somewhat worryingly) placed on foreign infrastructure investment from China, as government looks beyond the strained tax base. The possibility of an influx of Chinese labourers as we see in neighbouring countires should also be considered. This could nullify the benefits of any new jobs created by the investments, making them have less of a positive impact on South Africa's unemployment crisis than we'd hope for.

Of course, the success of any of these plans relies heavily on combatting the rot of corruption which plagues all facets of the industry.

OUR PART

As a consulting engineer, my influence in policy and master planning creation and implementation is limited at best, but that does not mean I do not have a role to play in determining the success of the NIP 2050.

We as industry professionals have the responsibility in providing solutions which are driven by excellence, incorporate safe and efficient design practices, and align with the goals as set out in the NIP 2050's vision.

We should place larger emphasis on operation and maintenance plans and procedures as part of our design deliverables instead of treating them as a vague afterthought to tick a box.

We should strive to employ more modern, sustainable, efficient, and innovative design standards and materials (within reason).

We should make ourselves available to use our skills and experience to guide and support government where necessary.

We should be willing to share information such as as-built plans and design philosophies of existing infrastructure with one another, as government institutions rarely have such information on hand to assist engineers.

We should resist the temptation for engaging in immoral practices and entertaining corruption within the industry.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, as taken verbatim from the NIP 2050:

The Department of Public Works and Infrastructure (“DPWI”) invites public comments on the draft National Infrastructure Plans 2050. Written submission should reach the DPWI on or before 17 September 2021. Submission should be addressed to the Chief Director: Infrastructure in any of the following ways:

a) Delivered by hand to DPWI, 256 Madiba Street, Pretoria Central, Pretoria

b) E-mailed to [email protected]

Any enquiries should be directed to Ms Tshwanelo Rakaibe at 011 269 3683.