Nagorno-Karabakh has fallen: Russia’s silent role

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a longstanding territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, has escalated exponentially over years. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive against the self-declared Republic of Artsakh in Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to a ceasefire agreement brokered by Russian peacekeepers. This offensive resulted in the profound dissolution of the Artsakh Defense Army and the disbandment of the region's de facto government - leading to a substantial humanitarian crisis, with over 100,000 ethnic Armenians fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia to avoid persecution. This mass displacement has raised international concerns of ethnic cleansing and human rights violations.

As Azerbaijan consolidates control over Nagorno-Karabakh, the region’s strategic and economic landscape continues to evolve rapidly. For multinational corporations, the humanitarian crisis underlines critical challenges. Geopolitical shifts, such as Azerbaijan’s reintegration efforts and Armenia’s recalibration of foreign policy, create uncertainties for investment.

For businesses in the South Caucasus region, these developments present significant strategic risks. The instability has disrupted supply chains, particularly in the energy and mining sectors, and has heightened tensions.

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