Myth Busting: The Election-Year Hiring Hold

Do Companies Really Hold Off on Hiring Because of the Election?

It sounds like something out of a corporate urban legend—companies holding their breath, frozen in time, just waiting for the political dust to settle before they make any big moves. But is it actually true? Do businesses really hit the pause button on hiring, sit on job openings, or drag their feet on job offers just because an election is looming?

The idea that politics could throw a wrench in the gears of the hiring machine might seem strange. But the truth is, it’s happening more than you might think.

The "Election Slowdown" Myth – Or Reality?

The notion that companies are waiting until after the election to ramp up hiring is something we hear every election cycle. But does it hold up?

In practice, it varies. Political uncertainty—especially in the U.S.—can make businesses nervous about the future, causing them to take a more cautious approach when it comes to hiring. While some companies scale back recruitment, delay hiring decisions, or freeze job openings during an election cycle, it’s not a universal rule. Some industries are more vulnerable to political shifts than others.

So what’s really driving the slowdown?

Wait-and-See What?

Several factors contribute to hiring slowdowns during election years:

1. Political and Economic Uncertainty: New tax policies, regulations, or healthcare shifts make companies cautious, especially in industries like finance, healthcare, and energy. These sectors are more likely to experience hiring freezes during election years.
2. Risk Aversion: Companies avoid risk, and hiring during political uncertainty can feel like a gamble. With potential policy changes looming, businesses may hold off on expanding their workforce until the election results are clear.
3. Changing Consumer Confidence: Election outcomes can shift consumer spending, which impacts sectors like retail and hospitality. Companies may delay hiring if they’re unsure how the economy will respond post-election.
4. Sector-Specific Delays: Tech and financial services often slow hiring due to uncertainty around potential regulatory changes. The closer an industry is to government policy, the more likely hiring delays will follow.

So, Is It Happening Right Now?

For Sure. How do we know?

1. Job openings in the U.S. hit a three-year low in July, with job creation also falling short of expectations over the summer months. That’s a clear sign that hiring is slowing down.
2. Meanwhile, a recent survey by G-P, found that 57% of U.S. executives believe the outcome of November's election could significantly impact their business strategies. So, yeah, a lot of companies are waiting to see what happens before they commit to major hires.
3. Job growth stalled in the month leading up to election. Is it hurricanes? Strikes? Looming election? All of the above hold some level of responsibility, but it's hard to divvy up responsibility.
4. And then, there’s ghost hiring. Sounds creepy, but it’s real. Ghost jobs are those phantom positions that companies post but never intend to fill. They sit there on job boards, maintaining the illusion of growth or helping to build applicant pools, but the jobs aren’t actually available. One study found 1.7 million ghost job listings on LinkedIn alone in the U.S. It's a weird side effect of election uncertainty—companies throwing out feelers without the intention of pulling anyone in. It’s like haunting job seekers without ever offering them a real shot.

Future Ready Comfort Food

If you're starting to feel weary from the endless job search, there’s some good news. According to Debra Boggs, CEO and Executive Job Search & Board Candidate Expert, this election cycle isn’t all that unique. Follow her on LinkedIn, read her work. She'll say warm and fuzzy things like:

• The good news is that this election cycle isn't unique. I've seen this happen with every election cycle in recent memory.
• Keep up the momentum on your search. Now is not the time to let off the gas. You want to be first in line and top of mind when the wheels start turning again on November 6th and beyond.
• In my opinion, as well as what I'm hearing from executive recruiters, hiring managers, and board directors, is that we'll see a busier than usual hiring market during the last two months of the year (which are typically slower because of the holiday season).

Conclusion: So, Are Companies Really Waiting to Hire?

The short answer is: Yes, but not everywhere.

While it’s true that elections can create some temporary hiring slowdowns, especially due to uncertainty about what policies will look like post-election, it's not a one-size-fits-all trend. The slowdown is real, but it varies across industries, regions, and company sizes.

For job seekers, it’s crucial to understand that this too shall pass. While the political landscape may cause some delays, it’s important to stay proactive. Hiring will pick up again, and the last two months of the year could actually bring a surge of activity, especially if you’re in the right industry. Stay focused, keep pushing forward, and you'll be ready to capitalize when the hiring floodgates open.