IN THE MYSTICAL REALM OF THE BLACK SWANS
“The Jamison Twins, in predicting the 9/11 terrorist attacks on tape, have managed to predict a “Black Swan,” a highly improbable event that would have a statistical probability of almost zero.” ?- Adrian Gilbert, Ph.D in statistical sociology ?
Many people have urged us over the years to have a respected mathematician calculate the statistical probability of our having been the only people to predict the 9/11 events on tape. After much searching, we found statistician Adrian Gilbert, who kindly volunteered to assist us with our goal. He told us that our 9/11 prediction (which we made on Art Bell’s Coast to Coast radio show on November 2, 1999) is in fact known as a “Black Swan Event.” Nassim Taleb, author of bestselling book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, has referred to difficult-to-predict events as “Black Swans,” which are unexpected events that have enormous consequences. Most people expect swans to be white because that’s what their life experience tells them - a black swan by definition is a surprise. The belief was destroyed when a black swan was discovered in Western Australia during the 18th century. A Black Swan is an extreme outlier event that lies beyond the realm of normal expectations. The probability of a Black Swan Event occurring is essentially zero and as such is not predictable by statistical approaches. Taleb says, “What we call here a Black Swan is an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective predictability.”
Traditional risk assessment, like that used by insurers, gauges the probability and likely cost of an event by assessing historical data. Insurers know from experience, for example, that an 18-year-old driver is more likely to have a serious accident than a 40-year-old, so the teenager's premium is higher. But a number of factors make this type of calculation less reliable in assessing the kinds of catastrophic events that have struck in recent years. Terrorist attacks on the scale of 9/11 are too rare to establish a statistical probability.? Events considered by many to be Black Swan Events include:
According to Gilbert, the occurrence of a zero-probability event is incomprehensible. This means it is virtually impossible based on statistical evidence. While some skeptics may insist that our 9/11 prediction can be explained, the findings of Taleb indicate that this horrible event simply could not have been foreseen by ordinary predictors. ?We extend our sincere thanks to Adrian Gilbert for his research findings in this area.? As pioneers in what theoretical physicist Michio Kaku calls “physics of the impossible,” the two of us will continue to operate at the extreme outer edge of what is statistically possible, in the realm of the Black Swans. NOTE: Adrian Gilbert has a PhD in statistical sociology and has been working in the finance sector for 14 years developing statistical models to predict various types of risk.
In this tumultuous time of strife and suffering, we send prayers for peace and healing to people around the world.
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