'Mystic Hev' is Back With 2024 Predictions??

After a 3 year hiatus, my alter ego is back with some predictions. This whole thing began during a time of deep uncertainty and pessimism.

At the end of 2020, I wanted to share a strong opinion why people should be excited for the year ahead, and from a selfish perspective get my then clients to move from having their budgets "on hold" to making bold plans.

Since then, I've been honing my predictive skills, and I am ready to throw some things that should be on your radar for the year ahead. Is it worth your time? Let's just say that last time we went 7/10 on the predictions and accurately foretold:

• Jan 6th
• delta/omicron
• inflation and the asset bubble pop in 2022

Nostradamus himself would have been proud!

Disclaimer - these views and predictions are solely my own and do not reflect the views and policies of Butterfly 3ffect.

First things first, is the year going to be BOOM, or BUST? It is hard to tell. The economic indicators are all over the place right now. On the one hand 2023 was a great year for investors and speculators with the majority of asset classes beating inflation. On the other hand, that may not have been good news for the average American/Western consumer who were less exposed to the market following 2022's decline.

2023 saw a return to pre-pandemic levels of consumer credit card debt (bad!) combined with the highest rates borrowers have seen for a while. Big ticket items that rely on the availability of cheap credit took a hit. Last years' auto sales were the worst in a decade. There was also a spike in hardship withdrawals from 401(k) plans, and a 50% increase in layoffs compared to 2022. Generally speaking consumer savings/investments were down, and cost of living and debt was up.

So jumping off the fence, I think this points to consumer spending sputtering along in 2024. The US economy is going to be thrown a lifeline from government spending with the Inflation Reduction Act kicking in.

Central banks have also signaled 1 or 2 rate cuts to come giving a boost to borrowing and unsticking the mortgage markets as the last few weeks have shown.

In the UK, it is likely that the Chancellor announces some relief from the highest tax burden since 1948, heading into the election.

The world under new (or returning) leadership

2024 is an election equinox year with a WHOPPING 40(+/-1 depending on Rishi) national elections scheduled to take place. From that list some interesting ones jump out such as the Taiwanese, US, Indian, and Russian.

Needless to say, this is going to present a resourcing problem for social platforms particularly with AI generated content, disinformation campaigns, and the general vitriol that accompanies politics/culture wars.

It won't surprise me if this is the year we see a widely shared/believed deepfake video of a major political candidate. Or, worse still, we look back and realize that these had been widely spread through dark social/paid media without mainstream coverage until it was too late.

Brand safety teams are going to be working overtime.

AI - the elephant in the room

I used ChatGPT to analyze AdAge's "80 AD EXECS PREDICT 2024 INDUSTRY TRENDS" article. Over a quarter of the biggest names in the industry honed in on AI and the impact it has had, and will continue to have on the industry.

Over the last year, we've seen its impact on everything from the content creation process, to media buying optimizations and even more innovative such as testing campaigns with digital twin audiences.

If you've not embraced AI into your workflow already, be prepared to be overtaken by teams that do.

This one is so obvious, we've got to take it to the next level and look at the second order effects of the proliferation of AI.

• Wider talent dispersal a.k.a more layoffs at top companies
• Companies tapping into an increasingly global workforce
• A Cambrian explosion of high quality business services. In the advertising industry, you can already see this with the rapid growth in the number of celebrity agencies at the top end, and creator agencies at the grass roots.

Niche excellence is coming for every category. It has never been easier to go from 0 to 1 with an idea.

The Privacy Focused Landscape has Arrived

One of my 2021 predictions was delayed until 2024, so I am reiterating it here, and claiming it on a technicality.

I've noticed a number of DTC brand CEOs and marketers sharing that their revenues had declined by up to 20% from 2022. Yet, consumer spending actually had a modest increase YoY. How could this be?

Digital advertising is moving to a more privacy-centric landscape. Firstly, Apple introduced its App Tracking Transparency framework, and now Google is moving forward with blocking third party cookies in Chrome.

These changes have reduced the targeting capabilities across social platforms and the open web. The result of this is increased costs in customer acquisitions. Again, fairly obvious stuff for people that are paying attention.

So what's next? Change requires shifts in strategy -

• Brands need to emphasize building and leveraging first-party data
• Rebalance investments between performance focused campaigns and brand building campaigns

• Experiment with retail media, and other digital media channels as additional performance focused channels
• Partner with publishers with strong contextual advertising capabilities

Lots of noise for marketers to compete against, lean into, or avoid

This year is set to be extremely busy with both positive and negative things capturing people's attention.

On the positive side, the Paris Olympics looks set to be a remarkable showcase. The Olympics always provides a platform to share incredible stories about the greatness of the human spirit, unites people, and leaves a legacy of inspiring participation.

Similarly, the Euros, and Copa America (hosted in the US!) kick starts the exciting summer of sports alongside one of the biggest sports in the world T20 Cricket World Cup (also hosted in the US)

We've also seen more inbound enquiries for more metaverse/virtual influencer projects in the tail end of 2023 and first week of 2024 than we did during the entirety of 2023. Apple announced that the Vision Pro will go on sale Feb 2nd, and this will drive even more interest in the space.

It is worth reading the IEP's annual report to get a sense of how much conflict is occurring across the globe. Signs indicate that this will probably deteriorate further in 2024. Adopting a strategy of reflectiveness vs. reactiveness will give teams the best chance of connecting with people in a meaningful and positive ways instead of contributing to further divisiveness.

I'm keen to hear your thoughts and predictions. What am I wrong about? What obvious prediction did I completely miss? What do you think 2024 will bring? Let me know in the comments!