My Top 10 Biggest Mobility Stories for 2023

As 2023 draws to a close, I wanted to take a few moments to celebrate mobility innovation and share my personal perspectives on the most impactful or intriguing stories shaping the future of automotive technology this year. Have a “Top 10” nomination? Respectfully post your perspectives in the comments section and join the conversation. #sbdautomotive #connectedcar #mobility # ces2024 ??

1.?A (Mostly) Promising Electrified Year: By any other year, the shift to Battery Electric Vehicles and hybrids took an incredible step forward in 2023. Putting aside the ‘expectations game’, EV sales in the U.S. are up nearly +50% year-over-year YTD and are on track to surpass 1M units for the first time ever. And led by growing EV adoption in China, EV sales will exceed 13M units worldwide. But as 2023 dwindles, the transformation to EVs has gotten a bit more cynical, political (anti-incentive, delayed ICE phaseouts), tougher to diagnose (production cuts, dealer pushback), and still must overcome lingering consumer concerns on incentive questions, dealer training/experience, unreliable infrastructure, repairability, and affordability. Carmakers need incredible scale, reduced costs, and competitive pricing to cross the EV chasm and deliver profitability – and with 24 new EV models launching next year in the U.S. alone (with dozens & dozens more globally) 2024 feels 'make or break' in determining the path to a more sustainable new normal.

2.?Controlled Multitasking Allowed - L3 Autonomy Hits the Road: Beneath the hype cycle, traditional automakers have steadily (and successfully!) climbed the SAE ladder of autonomy one step at a time. 通用汽车 , 福特 , and 日产 continue to effectively deploy L2 hands-free driving systems at scale (adding models, growing features, roadway coverage, and new markets). This year both Mercedes-Benz AG and 宝马 publicly announced plans to commercially launch SAE Level 3 vehicles which allow the driver to complete secondary tasks such as editing e-mails, engaging more deeply in telephone calls, and using digital services/streaming videos. Both automakers are limiting operational speeds up to 60 km/h (37 mph) and remind customers that responsibility lies with the driver at all times. Rollout may be impacted by country, U.S. state and/or local driving regulation so lots of complexities to overcome, but a big step forward. Look to China as an emerging L3 battleground as German manufacturers take on Chinese incumbents.

?3. Tesla Cybertruck (Finally) Here: After much publicized delays, on the last day of November Tesla delivered a handful of long-awaited Cybertrucks (which look like a… Cybertruck) to patient waitlisted customers. While specifications (save for the Cyberbeast edition) somewhat underwhelmed by Tesla standards including pricing (higher) and battery range (lower), the Cybertruck brings new features and experiences such as Wade mode (raises suspension and pressurizes battery in water), no rear-view mirror (plus “easy to remove” side mirrors), super-sized windshield and wiper, front and rear wheel steer-by-wire, and even a Squircle to operate. It remains to be seen whether Cybertruck’s polarizing design and functionality appeal is limited to Tesla/Tech enthusiasts or can make meaningful segment inroads into the cash cow of legacy pick-up manufacturers. Game on.

4.? 通用汽车 Pivots from CarPlay & Android Auto to a Built-In Experience: In a move to shore up the end-to-end consumer experience and enhance driver safety, GM announced earlier this year that it would begin phasing out 苹果 CarPlay and Android Auto smartphone projection on new EVs and eventually all future products. While notable that infotainment trailblazer Tesla does not embrace big tech phone mirroring, GM will need to deliver an equally compelling built-in user experience to satisfy driver needs to stay connected in as simple way as CP/AA. At the same time, Apple fights for a beachhead in the dash and recently previewed next-generation CarPlay interfaces with ‘brand-distinct’ design touches for early adopters Aston Martin Works Limited and Porsche AG .??

?5. AI for Automotive: Expect to see a lot more AI in mobility at CES 2024, but 2023 brought early adopters including 通用汽车 partnering with Google Bard Ai to help OnStar subscribers with route assistance and non-emergency requests, and Mercedes-Benz AG ’s first-to-market Beta program for voice-based in-vehicle OpenAI Chat GPT queries. Numerous automakers are fresh on their heels. This June, SBD published a concise round-up of which AI use cases for automakers to prioritize: SBD Explores: The Secret Behind ChatGPT and its Implication to the Automotive Industry ( sbdautomotive.com ) . The emerging issue for automakers and Large Language Model (LLM) providers is establishing trust and not leave the consumer behind in the push for innovation (see CHEVROLET OF WATSONVILLE dealer turning Chat GPT loose). Stay tuned for upcoming consumer research on the criticality of the AI consumer experience and which AI use cases hold the most promise.

?6. Chinese Automakers Race to Europe: Seeking global growth, China's electric vehicles dominated this year's IAA MOBILITY conference showing dozens of competitive EV models bound for Europe. Look for emerging new experiences and incredible price pressure in nearly every vehicle segment from automakers such as 比亚迪 , 上汽通用五菱汽车股份有限公司 , NIO蔚来 , XPENG Motors 小鹏汽车 , Lynk & Co , MG Motor AE , and ZEEKR极氪 (and many more yet to announce). Read SBD 's March 2023 insight which frames the disruption: Chinese OEMs expanding into new markets ( sbdautomotive.com ). Keep an eye next year on simmering trade tensions between West and East as the European Union threatened protectionist tariffs in September 2023. ?

?7. Robotaxi Challenges Persist: On the heels of 福特 and 大众 's wind-down of Argo AI in late 2022, automaker forays toward full autonomy took a bit of a hit in 2023. Cruise was challenged to solve regulatory, community and local AV driving conditions at scale (but I remain optimistic for 通用汽车 ’s more measured Second Act), Tesla appears no closer to a promised fleet of 1M Robotaxis, and while Hyundai Motor Company (?????) ’s Motional joint venture with Aptiv remains on track, don't expect commercial services until 2024. Stating the obvious, this is an extremely tough and capital-intensive business. Bottom line is that solving the last .001% of AV safety and external use cases (in which mobility providers cannot control) remains elusive although (Ann Arbor’s) May Mobility , 亚马逊 Zoox and 谷歌 Waymo have successfully weathered the PR storm this year. Question – will AVs need safety records twice as good, three times as good or even 10 times as good as human drivers to turn the tide?

?8. EV Charging Collaboration: Tesla makes the Top 10 once again, as more than a dozen major automakers announced interoperability with Tesla’s North American Charging Standard (NACS) in the USA. While this will provide range anxientied drivers access to Tesla’s vastly superior EV Supercharger first-mover nationwide charging network, it also places Tesla further at the epicenter of the NA EV charging ecosystem (with access to EV customer habits and likely data from competitive partners). To hedge their bets this July, 宝马 , 通用汽车 , Honda , Hyundai Motor Company (?????) , Kia Motors , Mercedes-Benz AG and Stellantis joined forces to announce a collaborative EV charging network of at least 30,000 high-powered chargers using CCS (Combined Charging System) or NACS plugs. The network will start in the U.S. along highways and in major metro areas. The first stations are expected to open Summer 2024 and expand to Canada shortly thereafter. A shout out to HERE Technologies and SBD which published the industry’s First Annual EV Index | HERE providing in-depth analysis of EV infrastructure in the US and Europe that covers supply, demand and consumer insights.

?9.?US Government Takes Action: In addition to The White House President Biden Administration’s support for EVs and charging network deployment (chargers #1 and #2 came on-line last week in Ohio and New York, USA), various government agencies were active this year to drive automotive innovation and ensure safety. In April, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) granted a joint request to permit deployment of cellular-vehicle-to-everything (C-V2X) technology, signaling a definitive and legal shift away from DSRC here in the U.S. In May, the United States Department of Transportation's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NHTSA (NHTSA) announced a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) requiring automatic emergency braking and pedestrian AEB systems on passenger cars and light trucks. In November, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) issued calls to reduce speeding through intelligent speed assist, and with 通用汽车 ’s support, NHTSA just issued an Advanced Notice for Proposed Rule Making (ANPRM) for "impaired driving prevention technology" and get drunk-driving-detection technology fitted into new vehicles. Big steps to enabling a more connected and safer mobility ecosystem.

10.?Google Leads In-Vehicle Infotainment Alternatives: Earlier this Spring, 谷歌 landed a coveted enterprise partnership with Mercedes-Benz AG for Cloud, AI, O/S and Google Built-In services and later renewed its contract with Polestar for next-generation IVI. This builds upon existing partnerships with 通用汽车 , 福特 , Renault , 日产 , and Honda . Lots of speculation on next-generation Google additions and potential transitions, but expect growing competition from in-house teams, other Tech Giants, and more bespoke solutions and tools available to carmakers.

A Few Honorable Mentions: Hyundai Motor Company (?????) partnered with 亚马逊 to sell vehicles in a way consumers actually want to purchase them; Software-Defined Vehicle organizations evolved and rebooted: 通用汽车 / 福特 – invested in Silicon Valley executive leadership, Woven by Toyota / CARIAD streamlined software strategies to more focused solutions vs. platforms, and 通用汽车 embraced Open Source Software, and numerous collaborative SDV consortiums took hold; thieves got savvy to the tune of over 1 million stolen vehicle thefts and 600,000 catalytic converter thefts in the U.S. annually creating a PR black eye for targeted automakers (no need to provide fuel to the fire and name names) driving insurance rates to more than $2,150 USD annually per vehicle; and finally an all-fight for the future of good old Terrestrial A.M. Radio (please save Sports Talk 1050 WTKA for my morning commute).

Thank you for engaging, Happy Holidays, and hope to see you at CES 2024!