My thoughts on the markets, October edition

My thoughts on the markets, October edition

It's quite difficult to find exciting investment opportunities in these uncertain times.

As you know, the pendulum swung from excessive optimism about a year ago to the great pessimism that currently prevails among investors. And uncertainty only continues to grow.

"When there's blood in the streets, you should buy," goes an old investor saying. Combine the slump in the stock & bond markets so far with the negative sentiment, and you might think that this is a suitable time to invest in risky assets again.

However, as you can read in the article below, John Hussman does not agree. In his view, the market still has a long way to go before it bottoms out. This is due to a combination of still high valuations, internal market factors and tightening by central banks.

Remember that bear traps are quite common during a free fall. This is when the market recovers some of its losses for a brief period of time before continuing its downward trend.

The time of great opportunity is approaching, but it may not have arrived yet.

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Here are a few articles that might help you think about the current market environment:?

Estimating Downside Market Risk by John Hussman

Global Wealth Report by Credit Suisse

Guide to the Markets by JP Morgan

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A picture is worth a thousand words:

Consumer sentiment index and subsequent 12-month S&P500 returns


PS: As you might imagine, the content above is not investment advice, just my thinking on the current market environment. It is also not an invitation to buy or sell any financial instrument mentioned above or in the articles linked.?

barrett stites

Tour guide at Puerto Vallarta Incorporated

2 年

Interesting and informative and just brief enough. Well done.

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Edvin Rustemagic

Information Security Officer at ACER | MSc in Information Security | CISSP | GPEN | GWAPT

2 年

Great read, Luka!

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