My Thoughts On Branson

I was standing in line this weekend waiting for coffee. There was an excited group ahead of me wearing identical t-shirts, part of a familiar sight in Atlanta summers - family reunions. I couldn't help but overhear them talking about the upcoming afternoon picnic, the highlight of their annual gathering.

Not wanting to intrude, I mentioned there was a good chance for storms. They looked puzzled and said, "We checked the weather and the rain from this morning moved out". Indeed, there had been strong storms the night before and now the skies had brightened. However, I knew a new storm threat had just been outlined by the Storm Prediction Center.

This scenario highlights the main disconnect between the weather industry and the general public for the most part. There has been quite a bit of hand-wringing after the tragedy last week in Branson. A seemingly incomprehensible loss of life resulting from the capsizing of a duck boat on a lake during a severe thunderstorm. At times, it almost appears as though we're blaming the victim for not knowing better.

Social media was rife with complaints from meteorologists about news coverage claiming the storm "came from nowhere". Many within the "weather bubble" were not at all surprised. Earlier in the day, the middle of the country was under an enhanced risk for severe weather, followed by the morning issuance of a severe thunderstorm watch that included most of Missouri. Forty-five minutes before the storm hit, the area that includes the lake was under a severe thunderstorm warning. Many are questioning why then was the boat even out on the water?

It may take months to fully answer that question, but it underscores the communication challenge facing the weather enterprise. Yes, it is 2018 and yes, there is a seeming avalanche of information readily available through a variety of digital means. However, not all of what is produced by the National Weather Service is getting to the intended end user.

The maps, summaries and model depictions are well known to many with a meteorological background who assume everyone else is as "dialed in". Frankly, most of the rest of the world wakes up, looks out the window and is often surprised at what they see. This isn't the case for the average meteorologist.

Perhaps, within the weather enterprise, we need to stop talking to ourselves and recognize the main challenges of communicating weather threats to others: awareness, access and action. While it is true that individuals need to take responsibility for their safety, we may need to give them better tools.

The average person sees a storm as an intrusion, not an expectation. For them, that interruption is a “surprise” and did “come out of nowhere”. It could be sunny and pleasant initially, then quickly change. That’s all the more reason why those engaged in outdoor activities or providing those recreational venues need to be aware.

The five-tiered risk of severe weather provided daily by the SPC is likely not bookmarked by the average citizen. They may see it on a blog post or perhaps graphically depicted by a local TV station. Intended to provide an overview of what could happen in several hours or days, it can and does change, something we need to help the public understand.

SPC outlooks are helpful, but need to be interpreted so as to incentive action by the end user. Take the people in line front of me at the coffee line. If I showed them an image indicating that their picnic site was in a large “slight risk” area, should they cancel the picnic? One important aspect of awareness is terminology and many of the descriptions we commonly use are not easily understood.

While most weather products are accessible, not everyone may be getting the message. On any given day, different phone apps can provide differing images and weather forecasts. So, then, it is up to the end user to be sure they are getting reliable, accurate information and are set to receive proper push notifications. The challenge here is they may miss or ignore the important ones about the weather if they get lost in a sea of texts.

Finally, people need to know when to act. For the most part, people have been conditioned to take some action when they hear they are under a tornado warning. A siren blares, a weather radio might go off or their favorite TV program could be interrupted. How many head for cover when they get word that they’re under a severe thunderstorm warning? Sadly, perhaps due to the frequency of issuance, especially in the summer, this important alert is largely ignored or not taken as seriously.

Hopefully, the tragedy in Branson will encourage people to be more vigilant when it comes to weather safety. It should also spur the weather industry to find more impactful ways to ensure that warnings continue to be timely, contain clear messaging to incent action and get to where they are needed.

Gene Norman is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist representing WeatherCall, a nationwide weather notification company. To learn more about specific products and services, email Gene at [email protected].