My Take: Ontario's Satellite Internet (ONSAT) program announcement explained..

Extracted from Jason’s Industry Insights – Issue #46

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Ontario Selects Starlink to Connect 15,000 Sites in Rural Broadband Program - The Canadian province announced on Nov. 14 that Starlink will offer high-speed satellite internet access to 15,000 eligible unserved and underserved homes and businesses through the Ontario Satellite Internet (ONSAT) program. Starlink will now begin program implementation, and the services will be made available by June 2025.?

My Take: When you provide little or incomplete information to people, they have questions, and their minds go to all sorts of dark places. Let’s review some of what I’ve either been asked or what I’m hearing.

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Q: $100M. Wow. That’s $6,666 per home. That’s a lot of 6’s, by the way. Some have suggested it was engineered that way ;)

A: Well, it’s not really that much per home. Let’s make some assumptions and do some math. Let’s say a Starlink kit costs $500, and to make sure the Government doesn’t get sued when someone falls off a roof, they include installation at a cost of $150. That’s $650 per home, equalling $9.75M for all 15,000. That leaves about $90M to account for.

Q: So what’s with the other $90M?

A: It has been reported, and I believe confirmed, that a large chunk of the remaining $90M is being used to secure “Capacity” for the affected subscribers.

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Q: Capacity? What’s that?

A: Let’s discuss and start with a picture.

Below is a sample Starlink bandwidth supply-demand heatmap. It’s a dynamic map that shows how well Starlink's supply meets Starlink's demand to service IP traffic at a particular moment in time (Rural, backhaul and In-Flight connectivity).

As you can see, some areas are green (green means “good”), and some are not so green, indicating areas where service may be less available and maybe not as fast as a connection in greener pastures. As part of this conversation, it’s important to note that Starlink doesn’t promise any service level or speed expectations.?

The concept of capacity, or a guarantee of capacity, then becomes one of being able to ensure supply is always available to meet the demand.

Capacity issues have arisen due to the increasing popularity of Starlink, the physical limitations of satellite technology and some associated challenges that include:

• Saturation in High-Demand Areas: Some regions, like Northern Ontario, may be expected to reach a saturation point with the number of expected user terminals.
• Performance Issues: As the number of connected devices increases, all users may experience reduced speeds and higher latency
• Physical Limitations: Despite advancements like laser links and improved ground stations, the laws of physics are the laws of physics and are not really open to negotiation.
• Global Demand: With over four million Starlink customers in more than 100 countries, managing network capacity has become increasingly complex

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Capacity reservation is a strategy implemented by Starlink to ensure service availability for specific customers or regions, regardless of global demand. Here's what it entails:

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• Guaranteed Service: SpaceX agrees to reserve a portion of its low-earth orbital system's capacity for particular customers or regions
• Priority Access: This reservation ensures that even if global demand increases, the reserved capacity remains available for the designated users
• Government Partnerships: In some cases, like the $100 million deal with the Province of Ontario, capacity reservation is part of a larger agreement to provide internet access to underserved communities
• Community Engagement: As part of these agreements, Starlink often commits to working directly with local communities, particularly Indigenous groups, to ensure equitable access and create socio-economic opportunities

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Q: Hey, I’m a Starlink subscriber. Why don’t I have reserved capacity included in the $150/month that I’m paying for service? What gives??

A: To quote the great philosopher, “AMEX”, membership has its privileges. Seriously, though, I’m a little on the fence with this one. Had the Province invested $100M in fibre to the premise (FTTP) infrastructure, the recipients would have received “capacity” on the shared access infrastructure based on the amount of bandwidth provisioned to the community - in a closed network. Based on Starlink's supply demand and the possible concentration of subscribers in Northern Ontario, the lack of a capacity agreement may result in an unreliable, inconsistent or untenable service offering.

For fun, let’s look at some other images to try and prove the point.

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This is an image showing all the Starlink satellites above my approximate urban location, captured as I was writing this post. There are many to choose from. “Capacity” shouldn’t be an issue.?

I reset my location to a place in Northern Ontario - in the southern region of Hudson Bay. Definitely a rural and remote location ~1,100 Km north of Toronto.

Here’s what the tool shows in this new location. Compare the two pictures.

Definitely not as dense (as expected), possibly further supporting the need for reserved or dedicated capacity on available satellites.

Over time, as more satellites are launched in the constellation, one would think that capacity would increase and lessen the need to reserve it. This leads me to the next question.

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Q: How long is the capacity agreement in place?

A: Don’t know. Great question, though. There have been suggestions that it may be a 3-year contract.

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Q: What happens if someone who is eligible for the Starlink kit signs up, gets the kit, subscribes for a year, decides to move and takes it with them? What happens with the next person who moves into that address? Do they get a free kit and installation as well?

A: ????

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Q: What about customer support?

A: Perhaps some of the funding is being used to provide customer support, which has always been a challenge and a frequent issue raised by Starlink users. I’ve seen a number of LinkedIn job postings for Customer Service leaders, so perhaps they’ve changed their thinking about support. When I was a Starlink customer, it was all email-based, and best effort at that.

See the next question. Perhaps that is the role of the integration company the Province has partnered with.

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Q: How is the program being administered? How do people know if they are eligible? How do they sign up?

A: Two organizations have been identified by the province as supporting the deployment. FSET, a Starlink reseller/IT integrator operating out of Kenora, ON, seems to have a strong history with Starlink, deploying over 4,600 kits in 110 Northwestern Ontario communities, including what looks to be with many Indigenous communities.

?The second organization is Maawandoon, an Indigenous Business and Consultancy located in Port Fort William Nation, ON, focused on ensuring that engagements are done thoughtfully and respectfully to “deliver critical infrastructure and create long-lasting socio-economic benefits for Indigenous communities across the Nations in Ontario”

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Q: What about the focus on Indigenous communities, building capacity in the communities and engaging the local workforce?

A: That’s part of the deal as well, from what I’ve read, and that’s a good thing. Looks like what Maawandoon will be focused on ensuring takes is realized.

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Q: What about that $2.4B the Government just handed over to Telesat?

A: First, they didn’t just hand it over. There was some earlier grant funding under the UBF program, and from what I recall, the Province of Ontario kicked in some funds, and the rest is a loan to be repaid.

Next, Telesat isn’t an ISP. They focus on MEF (Metro Ethernet Forum) type services — the type of services that businesses use to connect things from one point to another. Call it transport, or backhaul, focused on business customers as opposed to Starlink, which sells Internet access to end-consumers and others.

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Q: Is this a permanent solution to service the unserved and underserved in Northern Ontario?

A: For some, this is it. For others, IMHO, this is a 2-3 year bandaid until a terrestrial and generational solution shows up. Watch this space, as they say.

Comments here are my own and do not represent the opinions, views or thoughts of any person, company or organization that I may be associated with.

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