My Predictions, Hopes & Concerns for 2019

The following is my Top 10 list of things that I either hope or fear will happen in 2019.

1) The End of Clickbait Advertising ... You Won't Believe What Happens Next!

It dies... hopefully. If the comments section on clickbait Facebook Ads tell you anything, it's that people easily recognize clickbait articles these days, and even form mini support groups within those comments to explain to each other what the ad's mysterious image is or what it has to do with the article (if anything) -- or to 'spoil' the answer to the leading headline, so that others don't have to waste time clicking them. These carousel articles that stretch a story over the course of 20-30 pages of ads are often easily avoided by URL jumping to the higher page numbers. This may have been a profitable ad game in years past, but the advertisers paying for these placements are getting savvy to diminishing click-thru rates and ghost impressions. Meanwhile, adtech companies can offer advertisers so much more as programmatic advertising is getting better and smarter at targeting more conventional and relevant ad units. I'm sure there will still be clickbait ads by 2020, but they will be relegated to bargain basement, remnant publishers. This will hopefully mean more legible websites that don't try to load so many scripts that break the formatting of the page you are trying to read... which leads me to:

2) Return of the Webmaster

Webmastering is a lost art, as evidenced by so many javascript errors on legitimate websites that I actually want to visit and read. The promise of fluid web design has been compromised by layers of ads, tracking codes, and special effects that most websites now have the structural integrity of the ceiling at the Javitz Center (Is it fixed yet? I don't actually know). There seems to be no continuity or accountability for the code, and that's likely because companies aren't staffing a webmaster to police version changes and updates over time, instead opting for a revolving door of design agencies. Those agencies would be smart to sell their clients long term contracts that include webmastering over time. A webmaster is like the website equivalent of a copy editor watching out for typos. However, while a company may be incentivized to invest in a properly functioning website for improved time-on-site, and other retention metrics, fixing typos in articles is likely not a priority. As such, I don't think we'll see the return of the missing copy editor. (Don't get used these segues.)

3) Copy Editor Wanted

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet -- I'm no grammar-nazi, so when I notice a typo on CNN, I assume it must be glaringly obvious to other people too... I hope. Which begs the question, where have all the copy editors gone? We seem to be living in some post-grammar 'Idiocracy' where authors and journalists are being published without the checks and balances of copy editors. Apparently copy editing isn't as much of a priority as finding the right emoji to accompany a headline, subject heading, or tweet, so I'm afraid 2019 will likely be more of the same, if not worser.

3) Copy Editor Wanted

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet -- I'm no grammar-nazi, so when I notice a typo on CNN it must be glaringly obvious to most people. JK! ????

4) A Use Case for Blockchain

The promise of blockchain was as misunderstood in 2018 as 'Artificial Intelligence' was in 2017. Somewhere there is a CTO telling a CEO, "I told you so." But I think 2019 will change all that. Frustrated teams of C#, Go and Python developers are out there licking their wounds and ready to start upending financial systems just to prove that they can. They are tired of waiting for permission and will instead opt to beg forgiveness, if at all. I believe this will likely come in the form of decentralized peer-to-peer networks for cost sharing basic necessities such as healthcare, food, housing and transportation, as is the promise of a token-based UBI, but in 2019 they'll stop playing with crypto and start playing with fiat currency.

5) Beyond the Uncanny Valley

CGI animation and AI will continue to make great strides in 2019 with what I believe will be successful attempts in both areas to fool us into thinking they are actually human. Seems reasonable given the progress we saw in 2018. I don't need to belabour that with references, citations, or examples.

6) Population Health Plays a Bigger Role

Population health companies have grown in popularity over the years within healthcare, clinical research and advertising as geographic coverage and resolution has improved, but we're now seeing more opportunities in verticals like HR, reinsurance, and risk management for population health to impact decision making for the better. One particular effort that will come to light in 2019 is how population health and predictive analytics will drive forecasts for unplanned absences in large shift-based workforces. With these new tools, HR managers will be able to better plan for absenteeism in call centers, retail, manufacturing and healthcare, similar to other predictive tools available to HR managers for predicting flight risk of employees.

7) AI Data Scientists

Speaking of predictive analytics, Artificial intelligence will play a greater role in the management and development of machine learning models used for those products. Currently, machine learning models are able to manage ensemble forecasts, choosing the best performing model to display at any given time, but data scientists are still required to keep those models from going off the rails, and while that may always be the case at some level (hopefully), efforts to make these processes more autonomous will likely lead to the development of AIs specifically trained for the roles of the data scientist and analyst. This will mean critical decision making for large organizations will actually be influenced by AI data scientists, and no longer by human data scientists. It's a sea change that will likely go unnoticed since there won't be a Skynet or Terminator to commemorate it -- just the good intentions of well-meaning data scientists trying to make their jobs easier.

8) Netflix will Netflix Itself

Content has become increasingly commoditized. In fact, we may have reached peak Netflix in 2018 as evidenced by the echo chamber that is the 'Bird Box' meme-marketing campaign. I expect factions will develop within Netflix to promote and protect certain films and shows, such that they'll become increasingly divided and drive writers and producers to other platforms like Amazon and YouTube. The beginning of Netflix's descent into derivative mediocrity will come in the form of a lackluster season 3 of 'Stranger Things'. As a fan of that show, I hope I'm not right, but season 2 didn't exactly elevate the franchise -- and after being suckered into watching 'Bird Box', I'm not sure I can trust Netflix anymore. I think Netflix may have already 'jumped the shark' with Sandra Bullock successfully navigating river rapids while blindfolded, and no amount of 'Nailed It' is going to make me forget about that any time soon.

9) Water Prices Will Go Up, Disease Outbreaks Will Follow

Water prices rose 40% between 2010-2015, so they will probably rise some more by 2020. My water bill certainly doesn't show them going down. If this trend continues, then public access to clean water could be impacted and lead to disease outbreaks in struggling communities, which will only increase demand on water supplies and cause those prices to go up further. Technology in the filtration and distillation of gray water and sewage will hopefully reverse that trend, but probably not by 2020.

10) Parents Will Make Fortnite's Emotes Uncool

Have you noticed your teenager dancing like a marionette controlled by the wagging tail of an anxious puppy? Have you recognized these gesticulations in other kids on TV and social media? Have you started trying those moves yourself? This is the pattern that will lead to parents unwittingly dancing to Fortnite's "emotes" much to their children's dismay. That is how Fortnite will become uncool in 2019, and how parents can band together to stop this cultural scourge that is robbing our children of important social defense mechanisms like shame and embarrassment.

Postscript

I'm specifically refraining from making depressing predictions on topics like the stock market, Trump or Ebola, since the outlook is not looking good for either of those in 2019, but if you are looking for predictions about flu season, allergy season and anything else that Sickweather tracks, please be sure to contact us: https://enterprise.sickweather.com