My predictions for 2040

We just started 2024 and when you count the number of threads related to the coming year, you realize that it's the time of the year when everybody is making their predictions on anything they feel like:

• The best universities in 20xx to study Business
• The best MBAs in 20xx to meet your future co-founder
• The universities with the best ice cream shops on campus in 20xx. (I really would love to have this list)

I have seen only very few posts revisiting the predictions from the previous year.

Is it just me?

Will those lists or predictions ever be revisited? Probably not... and probably only a few people care. Would you?

Let's look into the future - very far!

As this newsletter is about 2040, I will make my predictions not for the coming year but for 16 years ahead... In case you wish to keep track of my predictions, and I mean it, subscribe to this newsletter for easier tracking!

Without further ado: Here are my 2040 predictions for Higher Education:

ONE: Education Is Valued

... puff, that's good news!

In 2023 I was directly involved in two higher education conferences: co-organizing the GMAC Asia Conference and speaking at the QS Higher Education Summit .

In both conferences, there was a growing concern about the acceptance of the current higher education models in younger generations. Finding an answer to Why should I study for a Degree? or Why should I complete an MBA now? needs more justification today than 10 years ago. The sense of urgency and need for NOW has diminished with so many opportunities to learn on the go.

Rightly so. When the news comes out about the BA degree no longer required , high school students see this as a quick path to earning money faster. And judging by my son (15) striving for money seems to be more attractive than sitting in a lecture hall...

Will Higher Education Vanish?

While the value of education will not vanish, the value of formal traditional higher education as we know it today might be impacted as discussed in a previous article:

Since the pandemic, the term portfolio career was coined. People become entrepreneurial, leaving their corporate careers and getting involved in several projects simultaneously. It becomes a mosaic of experiences in which different skill sets are required.

In 2040, we see Education Portfolios like this one from Eduardo :

The future lies in a strategic blend of traditional education and verifiable alternative credentials. Blockchain-based platforms will revolutionize how we showcase and validate our credentials, fostering trust and transparency (see The Education Wallet ). Moreover, Skills Portfolios, where competencies are grouped by context (responsibilities, industries, projects), can further personalize and strengthen our professional narratives.

The Value of Education in 2040 is more important than ever. Not anymore in a linear sense represented by Bachelor Degrees and Masters but by a holistic mosaic of lifetime learning snippets. It reflects the uniqueness of every single learner and can become a true differentiator.

TWO: Nobody Talks About AI

... everybody uses it!

It became a fashion word in the mid-2020s. Generative AI became mainstream in late 2022, just when COVID-19 started to become normal and accepted. It started with radical measures of universities, and even countries, to outright ban it before presidents could understand its implications. They feared that the genuine human creation of original content was in danger and it was not possible to assess students' and faculty's academic work.

Slowly, some light came into sight at the end of the tunnel and the initial scare converted into a sea of opportunities. It creates amazing data insights, optimizes processes, and enhances students' learning journey . In Admissions, it helps to compare transcripts across education systems, and for student recruiters, it predicts with high accuracy the candidates' likeliness to apply.

But just like e-commerce became business in 2000, digital transformation became business in 2020, AI became business in 2027. It transitioned as part of our daily lives and nobody was talking anymore about it.

Bye, Bye Rankings!

Interestingly, rankings have disappeared in 2040. The power of personalization of AI enables a truly individualized identification of the best university for every single student to craft a personal education portfolio.

A generic ranking of universities does not add value when it's not aligned with the candidates' values, skills, and career goals. Hence, ranking providers opted for a subscription model to help lifelong learners build their education portfolio (a much more lucrative model to source from every learner than from only some academic institutions).

Higher Education will become a level-playing field in which only quality, outcomes, and fit will determine an institution's success. Interestingly, tuition fees have been in decline for the past decade as it is no longer a synonym for quality and outcomes. Many universities haven't been able to justify their tuition fees within a competitive and more transparent world.

Student Mobility

Student mobility remains strong. Due to economic development, we see more and more international students globally. The domination of English-speaking countries (US, UK, Australia, and Canada) has diminished as more countries offer degrees in English and provide immigration policies that enhance the opportunities for international students.

It becomes increasingly difficult for universities to recruit individually. Countries even economic blocks like the EU are collectively recruiting for talent for immigration through a learning path working closely with universities and organizations.

In 2040, outcomes are the single most important factor in the candidates' decision to international education.

Universities located in countries not open to immigration will face a tough time unless they build up campuses in more open countries to mitigate their risk.

With higher transparency on educational opportunities, there is a stronger case for virtual student mobility. Online education will become truly borderless as even the information boundaries have been taken down by AI.

A solid global credential validation system creates the trust needed to empower every single student pursuing education anywhere in the world assuring social mobility.

We will revisit these trends every two years. So, ensure you are subscribed !