My Posts (26 May - 1 June, 2024)

A study found the superspreaders of mis-information on Twitter (it was Twitter when the study was conducted) and another study found that air quality improvement and forest fire are related. The article on cancer and doctor's ethic is disappointing. AUM is not indicative of future returns for pension funds and liquid markets seem to have more volatility and more bargains to be found. Google has a new search that brings internet search to the old days. There is a 2 year old who is selling his painting in thousands of euros!

Art

Bidding war erupts for paintings by ‘pint-sized Picasso’ aged 2 - The Times: ”Picasso’s favourite subjects were the Spanish civil war, naked women and bullfights. Laurent Schwarz prefers elephants, horses and dinosaurs. And yet the two-and-a-half-year-old from Bavaria is gaining a reputation as a pint-sized Picasso thanks to his big, bold and colourful abstracts that are fetching up to €6,500 on the international market.”

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How Actors Remember Their Lines | The MIT Press Reader: " Repeating items over and over, called maintenance rehearsal, is not the most effective strategy for remembering. Instead, actors engage in elaborative rehearsal, focusing their attention on the meaning of the material and associating it with information they already know."

Investment Related (US Equities, Bonds)

Investment theme du jour: don’t overthink it – Financial Times: “An overheating American economy remains the number one cloud hanging over markets right now. Investors are getting used to the idea that interest rates might not fall in the US this year.”

This Record Stock Market Is Riding on Questionable AI Assumptions – WSJ: “Remember all the bulls earlier this year getting excited that the rally was broadening out beyond the ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks, and how wider gains were a sign that the market’s rise was sustainable? Not so much.” ?

More US high-grade borrowers at risk of downgrade as economy slows – Financial Times: “[T]he lowest-quality investment-grade bonds that rating agencies have on so-called ‘negative watch’ or ‘negative outlook’ — meaning their ratings are more likely to be downgraded — stood at 5.7 per cent this week, according to analysis by Bank of America Securities"

Big Oil Companies Will Just Keep Getting Bigger – WSJ: I don't know if EBITDA is the right measure, but sure looks like big oil companies are keep getting bigger.

Investment Related (US Pension Funds)

Exxon vs Calpers: Inside the clash over shareholder rights and fiduciary duty – Financial Times: ?Exxon sued?a Dutch climate activist group and an investor to block a climate resolution on whether to accelerate Exxon’s reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The two groups who were sued withdrew their proposals. Exxon is hoping to win a ruling that would set a precedent for such cases. Calpers will vote against re-electing the board members while the Norwegian oil fund will vote against the independent director leading the governance strategy.

How an Ex-Teacher Turned a Tiny Pension Into a Giant-Killer – WSJ: "After a decade of mostly ho-hum performance, the $1.4 billion Plymouth County Retirement Association ranked in the top 10% of U.S. pensions over the past three years. Key to that success was an early—and prescient—bet that interest rates would rise.” ?

Investment Related (Europe)

Swiss Watch Exports Post Surprise Jump After US Revival – Bloomberg: "Shipments to Japan surged 13.6% as the weak yen continued to drive sales from tourists, while demand from China remained tepid in April, with exports to the second biggest market for Swiss watches down 7.5%."

Fair Value Index Q1 2024 - Cushman & Wakefield Europe: "Geographically, market classifications points to the more liquid markets, UK, Germany and France witnessing a greater share of 'underpriced' and 'fairly priced' markets. This is not surprising given the rapid outward adjustment in yields that have occurred in these markets."

Health Care

Doctors take money from pharmaceutical firms so they die with a slightly bigger number in the bank - Sensible Medicine: ?“Oncology at the end of the twentieth century and early 21st century runs unethical trials with inappropriate control arms, poor post protocol care, bad crossover, and many other games, which makes companies rich and people poor. Cancer doctors take payments for these companies and go along with this narrative. The system is so rotten and corrupt and pervasive we can’t even recognize it as such.”

Monetizing Medicine: Private Equity and Competition in Physician Practice Markets - Antitrust Institute: PE acquisitions of physician practices are increasing. PE firms are amassing high market shares in local physician practice markets. PE acquisitions are associated with price and expenditure increases.

Science and Technology

Key misinformation “superspreaders” on Twitter: Older women | Ars Technica: "A study released today looks at a large panel of Twitter accounts that are associated with US-based voters (the work was done back when X was still Twitter). It identifies a small group of misinformation superspreaders, which represent just 0.3 percent of the accounts but are responsible for sharing 80 percent of the links to fake news sites… While you might expect these to be young, Internet-savvy individuals who automate their sharing, it turns out this population tends to be older, female, and very, very prone to clicking the 'retweet' button."

Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models – SSRN: "Our results suggest that GPT’s analysis yields useful insights about the company, which enable the model to outperform professional human analysts in predicting the direction of future earnings. We also document that GPT and human analysts are complementary, rather than substitutes.”

Google Building Subsea Cable to Connect Africa to Australia – Bloomberg: "The cable, called Umoja, follows the construction of Google’s?Equiano?cable that connects Africa with Europe. The new line will start in Kenya and travel over land through Uganda, Rwanda, Congo, Zambia, Zimbabwe and South Africa before crossing the ocean to Australia."

Redefining the scientific method: as the use of sophisticated scientific methods that extend our mind - PNAS Nexus | Oxford Academic: ?“This study reveals that 25% of all discoveries since 1900 did not apply the common scientific method (all three features)—with 6% of discoveries using no observation, 23% using no experimentation, and 17% not testing a hypothesis.”?

How I Made Google’s “Web” View My Default Search - Tedium.co: “Google quietly added something else to its results—a 'Web' filter that presents what Google used to look like a decade ago, no extra junk.”

India

Modi Seeks to Consolidate Power in India Election—and Change the Country’s Future – WSJ: “A supermajority win would bring the ability to change the country’s secular constitution. But the southern region has long stood as a bulwark against the Hindu nationalist’s goal of reshaping the country into a world power united around a single religion and language.”

How Radio Ceylon became an Asian institution - Nikkei Asia: “Veteran Indian radio broadcaster R.J. Mantra of Mumbai calls radio ‘the original social media influencer’ for its role in building links between India and its neighbors.”

Japan

Japan ranks No. 2 in alternative-protein patents, behind U.S. - Nikkei Asia: "Nikkei examined patents filed by companies and research institutions that are?useful for developing alternative-protein products, giving each a score based on its value. The No. 1 country?as of the end of April was the U.S. with a combined 4,340 points, followed by Japan with 2,570 points, Switzerland with 1,740 points and China with 1,651 points."

Japan's maglev train proponent wins Shizuoka governor race - Nikkei Asia: Whoever won, maglev project would have moved forward. Positive news for tourism. ?

Sustainability

Carmakers electrify Brazil’s unique sugarcane vehicles – Financial Times: The Financial Times says in Brazil, most passenger cars run on a mix of petrol and ethanol, a biofuel primarily derived from sugarcane.

Active Coal Mines Might Be Key to the Renewable Revolution - OilPrice.com: "Ironically enough, the key to powering the U.S. renewable energy industry may require partnering with the U.S. coal industry for quicker and more cost-efficient ore extraction... In theory, this could allow already active mines to extract rare earths along with the ore they’re already extracting with little additional overhead."

Germany Has Too Many Solar Panels, and It's Pushed Energy Prices Negative - Markets Insider: “According to a note from SEB Research, in the past 10 days, solar producers have had to take an 87% price cut during production hours. In fact, when production peaks, prices have slid well below zero.”

Why Tajikistan’s Water Matters - The Geopolitics: “[S]ince about 60 percent of water resources of the rivers in Central Asia are formed in Tajikistan, the authorities in Dushanbe are expected to focus primarily on the development of the country’s water sector. If they succeed, water could serve as the basis for the nation’s economic growth.”

Improving air quality increases forest fires? | UCR News | UC Riverside: “The study found that boreal forests in the northern hemisphere are particularly vulnerable to negative effects of cleaning up aerosol pollution. This includes forests in Canada, Alaska, northern Europe, and northern Russia.”