My post election thoughts....!

The picture with this article was taken ten years ago next week - I had stood as a Conservative candidate in a by-election (Sedgefield). Times have changed, the Conservatives went from here on up and then down again!!!


The full text of this article was originals written in the week after the 2017 general election....

I write today as a life-long Conservative who has stood for Parliament twice and held positions as a media adviser and press officer to a Party leader and to the national Party. Last month, I wrote a confident column about Mrs May’s election promise, today it is very different.

 

James Wharton is a friend of mine and was a fine Minister who put the North East and Teesside first. In Conservative Government with fewer members in the North than the South, he was our region’s finest ambassador. If 444 people in his constituency had voted Conservative rather than Labour he would still be in situ and the North East would have one of its most effective voices in Government. He should be given a role at the centre of Government. So, forgive me, as I write this at the weekend after the election, if I reflect a little on what could have been if the national Conservative campaign hadn’t been so bloody terrible.

 

But before I use this column to vent some frustration let me take a breath….ahh that’s better…and reflect that the Conservatives did come first in last week’s election. Reflect that we have as many Conservative MPs in the North East as we did before the election; that we also have a great new Conservative Mayor in Tees Valley; that seats like Hexham and Berwick, which once hung by a thread for us, have enormously capable Conservative MPs with substantially increased majorities; and that in strong Labour areas, like Bishop Auckland, Labour is reduced to clinging on with barely 500 votes in surplus! Jeremy Corbyn did no better than Gordon Brown in electoral terms.

 

However, it could have been very much better. Firstly, there could have been no election. In my part of the world, voters have now been to the polls four times in two years. Election fatigue has set in. They have been asked who was in charge and what they wanted, and told us to get on with it. This last time of asking resulted in a collective huff, as if to say: ‘if you need to ask, then its not just you, share power if you can’t do it alone.’

 

When the Conservatives asked us to back Mrs May, most people wanted to do so. She was seen as a rational and capable person and, as far as I am concerned, she still is. However, the national campaign to promote her was ill-conceived and poorly implemented.

 

Policies can be argued about forever and a day and the manifesto contained many very good ideas. It also contained a couple of ridiculous notions – why even mention fox hunting? It is a matter of personal opinion for MPs so why put it in the national policy document? The social care policy had some merit, the ingredients were all there but it was presented half-baked.

 

The policy on Brexit and the excellent record on the economy were seams that deserved to be mined properly. Ministers could have been directed to business success stories and to areas where a solid Brexit would provide opportunity for growth. Every visit to a global exporter was an argument for global trade. Every visit to a fish ‘n’ chip shop was an argument for Brexit, as it will result in control of our fishing waters again! Every road that is being built could be shown as investment in the economy, every business that is recruiting makes a case for growth and entrepreneurship.

 

Yet the Conservative road tours by Ministers were organised by a few officials who had little time to prepare and who rejected help from outsiders. The fact that candidates were sought last minute for winnable seats meant that the rush to arms resulted in poor planning for the actual campaign.

 

Poor implementation was seen every day. For example, when Mrs May came to Teesside, I know for a fact, her London-based team were given three solid choices of venue for the visit. Two had a backdrop of the iconic Transport Bridge, they rejected these for reasons entirely disconnected with the need for good local TV pictures. She gave her ‘Brexit fight back’ speech on Teesside at an earth digger dealership; great yellow machines used to build our roads, factories and houses were everywhere. Yet, she stood in front of a bland backdrop that covered up the machinery and made no reference to the brilliant business she was visiting and the opportunity it would have to grow as a result of a good Brexit deal! Most politicians would have been photographed at the controls of the diggers but Mrs May was ushered away. She made her case well but big opportunities for a strong local impact were missed. Despite this, the excellent local candidate she visited, Simon Clarke, won.

When national radio reporters and TV companies came North to look at local Conservative campaigns, local candidates needed to fend for themselves; some did very well, others were overwhelmed by running their local campaigns at the same time as dealing with high level media enquiries.

 

Then, there was the so-called targeting. Everything was thrown at targeting Labour seats – some with frankly impenetrable majorities - rather than supporting sitting MPs and co-ordinating efforts to genuinely winnable seats. Had local party members on the ground been asked, more human resources would have been poured into Darlington, Bishop Auckland and Stockton and, as a result, more doorstep conversations held. Labour does this very well and we saw the result; three more Labour MPs than there could have been.

 

Mrs May’s personal ratings were not a fortress against a campaign that made strategic, tactical and operational mistakes almost everyday. I’ll make no friends in the Conservative Party for writing all this but the friends who lost their seats as a result will see why some of it needs saying. Mrs May has talented ministers around her, a good set of policies to implement and, for the time-being, a benign economy. She now needs to regain her magic touch. She should focus on maintaining economic growth, reject punitive tax rises for business and wealth creators and clear the decks to do a good Brexit deal. As Rab Bulter once said, politics is the ‘art of the possible’, it is possible to govern with the seats she has won. It is possible to focus on the big issues and to do the peoples’ work. It is possible for the Conservative Party to turn the support it won in 2017 into a majority in five years time.



Ben Haynes BEng MSc MAcostE MRICS

Project Controls & PMO Leadership

7 年

"We are where we are" to coin a phrase. However, one might well ask "how did we get here?" - are the electorate to blame or members of parliament, or both? We should ask ourselves if 4 elections in two years has served our country well, indeed we might also ask ourselves whether democracy has served the UK well? Socrates considered voting as a skill, that is, something that needed to be learned and that democracy depends entirely on the electorate understanding their 'subject matter' https://www.thebookoflife.org/why-socrates-hated-democracy/ I fear we are where we are due to an unnecessary Brexit referendum, attributed to David Cameron's ignorance, a Brexit referendum outcome attributed to an 'unskilled' electorate, and a minority government resulting from Theresa May's arrogance and yet again an 'unskilled' electorate (persuaded by mistruths and non-Implementable manifestos). What hope have we got when our parliamentarians are either ignorant, arrogant, unelectable, untrustworthy, incapable or worse still all of these things? Boris Johnson as our next PM?? With an 'unskilled' electorate, anything is possible... Donald Trump! I for one would welcome a 'none of the above' protest vote option which i deem to be a democratic right

Dr. David Cliff

Helping individuals and businesses to better function.

7 年

If you do not get results, you need reasons. This is a very able analysis Graham , very fair comment indeed and if it disaffects you to some of the party "bubble dwellers", so be it. Change is never easy but it must start with candour. A modern political party needs to be reflexive and inclusive, not centralist and frankly tribalism has been the case. The populous at large are tired of the internecine tensions in political parties holding the country to ransom. I do wonder how many leaders/PMs it will cost the them to unify?

Vinay Bedi

Investment Manager

7 年

Graham very interesting comments not least because I find the psychology of the electorate as fascinating as the psychology of the financial markets (which is akin to a bunch of voters buying or selling, albeit on a daily basis). One issue which appears to be being skirted round, and yet I think remains the elephant in the room here, is the country's underlying desire for Brexit. We all know that 75% of all 18 - 24 year olds who voted in the Brexit referendum wanted to remain, yet only 36% of that age group actually bothered to vote (compared to 83% in the 65+ bracket). That younger age bracket was clearly unhappy with the Brexit decision (even though it is probable but not statistically provable that if they had voted the Brexit majority of 1.269million "may" have been reversed) and in being given the chance to vote so soon afterwards (in this June's General Election) they were not going to miss out on their democratic duty this time around. Of course, with the benefit of hindsight, Theresa May should not have called the election, her opinion was based on polls (now utterly discredited... as if they weren't a few months ago) and she took no account of the fact that the "younger" vote would come out in droves as guilt overcame the lethargy of the referendum ( I know this first hand, for what it's worth, as my twenty year old and her friends all went out of their way to vote on 8 June yet none had bothered in the Brexit vote). Labour cleverly appealed to that younger demographic, they targeted it with policies that were impossible to deliver financially (somewhat akin to the "what would you do if you won the lottery" discussions, knowing you are highly unlikely to ever do so) and they had the benefit of being the least convincing about their underlying desire for Brexit. It is probable that the larger "younger" turnout in the General Election helped raise the Labour vote substantially, although I await certainty on the stats here. Theresa May felt and still feels that, despite being a "remainer" herself, she has a democratic duty to deliver Brexit come what may. Good on her, but is she right? Now the country has had a glimpse of what the impact of Brexit might look like, now we know how hard those negotiations are going to be, now we are in that no mans land of uncertainty for at least the next 18 months, probably longer, is she not actually making another misjudgement? It is statistically provable that if the vote had been restricted to those under the age of 55 we would be remaining in Europe. If the referendum was being repeated again tomorrow, then the younger turnout would be much larger and without doubt the result would be much closer if not, I hesitate to suggest, altogether different? Are we moving towards a situation where we are going to get some sort of Brexit, yet it is entirely possible that the population doesn't actually want it now, if it isn't actually questionable that they did so in 2016 ? So what does Mrs May do? What do the Tories do? They are moving down a road that a democratic decision has forced them down, yet maybe the lesson of the General Election is that the Country as a whole is not entirely convinced that this was the right decision after all. Unlike Theresa, we cannot now change our minds, but maybe, for the good of the Conservative Party (and the country, in my view) it may be time to start to factor in a means of re-assessing the country's actual desire for Brexit at some stage in the future?

Dave Crane

Ex-BBC | Speaker & MC (WEF, LEAP, UN) | CEO Mentor | Coach, Thought Leaders | I Help High-Performing Leaders & CEOs Dominate Their Industry & Speak with Authority on Global Stages

7 年

Nice one Graham. Been a keen follower of your success since listening to you on Radio Tees at 12am. You are an inspiration.

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