My perspective of modern time financial crises

I started my fixed income trading career in August 1998 - right in the midst of the Russian Debt crisis.  I was too green to fully appreciate the severity of the situation but mature enough to see the panic in the senior traders’ eyes.  I remember overhearing conversations that the markets would never be the same.

I witnessed first hand the “irrational exuberance” of the technology sector's growth and its epic collapse.  I had college buddies who became “paper millionaires” (as I worked 15-hour days as a junior trader for what felt like minimum wage) watch their entire net worth erode overnight.  I remember the conversations with them that the markets would never rebound from such a cataclysmic correction.

I was also working at 2 World Financial Center the morning of September 11, 2001.  I vividly remember walking down all those flights of stairs in shock - and in fear that more planes were hijacked and headed our way.  I equally as-vividly remember the months at the offsite facility in rural New Jersey talking about how life would never, ever be the same - as a country we lost our innocence and naivety that day.  The markets felt so rocky at the time, it was hard to imagine them returning to normalcy.

Finally, I ran a conduit mortgage securitization desk going into the 2007/2008 financial crisis. Being at the epicenter of this global crisis, to this day I still find it incredibly resilient that the RMBS/CMBS markets have rebounded as well as they did.  At the time, the sheer fear of the end of capitalism as we know it was strong and hard to overcome. Why would anyone ever want to own a home again?  Carrying any sort of personal debt seemed like too big a risk to ever try again.  

And here I am again today, living in a suburb of NYC at the epicenter of yet another global crisis - COVID19 - working remotely again (this time from my home office - i.e. a desk in my bedroom).  Although this time it feels different to me.  Not different because of the severity of the situation.  Not different because the source of the crisis is not emulating from Wall Street (or terrorists). And not different because over a third of the world’s population is living in lock-down.  It feels different to me because of my experience in crisis situations.  I still have concerns; I still feel the same uncertainty as everyone else.   But I’ve been here before.  I don’t want to sound like a politician, but I feel confident that we will come out of this stronger and more resilient.  The world at some point will regain a sense of normalcy and markets will rebound and eventually set new highs again.  And it is those thoughts that allow me to sleep soundly at night, and I hope my experience can bring you the same peace of mind that it brings me.   God bless and be safe.