My Opinion of the Foldable Phone Market

20 years ago, the most important device people had in their life, had been their Desktop or Laptop. It stored everything from their life. Family photos, taxes, bills, documents. Anything you had created personally and professionally. All accessible at home, stored locally. Today, the most important device is arguably now your smart phone. Not only does it contain all of the things you stored at home on your desktop or laptop, but it also in many cases acts as a digital wallet or tool needed to access your workplace through a myriad of applications.

Smartphones have been a traditional square glass object kept in your pocket or purse forever. In 2001, Sprint released the SCP-5000 from Sanyo which had the very first mainstream color screen. There were others like the Nokia 9210 back in 1998, but it always felt to me like the release of the Sanyo was when it became color screens for everyone.

Then there were other phones throughout the early 2000's like the Siemens SX66. A monstrous Windows Mobile based phone that slid up with a fancy keyboard looking like something straight out of the Matrix and designed to compete with the Blackberry. But let's not forget the Palm Trio's of the world which were probably the best "smart" phone/PDA available for a period of time. Then, 2007 and Apple came along with the iPhone changing the product category forever.

Dreams of a Foldable phone go back as far as 2008 with the Nokia Morph, and later in 2013 when Samsung showcased the first Foldable screens, but it wasn't until a little known startup called Royale out of China released the Flexpai.

As the very first Foldable to hit the market, it boasted a huge 7.8 inch screen and moved the market forward. Then it was eclipsed by the release of the Samsung Galaxy Fold in February of 2019 and even though that was littered with defects causing Samsung to pull and re release the product, consumers really got a taste for what the foldable world of Smartphones might offer with these two devices.

Fast forward to today and the form factor really seems to be picking up steam among consumers. According to DSCC (Display Supply Chain Consultants), they forecast that in 2024 display shipments for these types of products will hit 51 million units. Up from 17 million shipped in 2023. Samsung who is arguably the current leader in this space, is up 308% Year over Year. There are plenty of players entering the space with Google releasing the Pixel Fold in 2023 as well as the OnePlus Open. It's also expected that Samsung, Google, and others will have follow ups in this category in 2024 as well.

While Microsoft had a very interesting take on foldables with the Surface Duo, and later the Duo 2, it's beautiful hardware design and amazing hinge was overshadowed by a littany of software bugs that led Microsoft to scrap plans for the Surface Duo 3. Reportedly there are plans to pivot to a single screen with a hinge underneath like the Samsung Galaxy Fold instead of the split screen design of the previous generation Duo's. This is something I'd love to see come to fruition in 2024.

While most Android Phone manufacturers have jumped on the Foldable bandwagon today and consumers have really begun to embrace it, Apple has yet to enter the foldable game. This could be attributed to the upcoming release of the Vision Pro so most engineering efforts are focused on preparing this product for release in the 1st quarter. More likely though is the "wait and watch" approach Apple takes with any product category. After all, Apple cares about the experience they bring to the consumer more than almost anything else. If the experience is hot garbage, Apple will not risk alienating their consumers. Especially when the iPhone accounts for 52% of Apple's overall revenue stream.

I think the more likely entrance into the Foldable market will be with something like the iPad. This gives them the opportunity to fine tune the experience for the iPhone with much less impact on their primary revenue generator. The iPad global revenue accounts for around 5.8% to 26% of Apple's sales so the risk is much less.

If foldables are going to continue to grow, there's some drawbacks that need to be addressed. The barrier to the Foldable market is is primarily price. The cost to manufacture a Foldable device is much higher than their traditional smartphone counterpart. There are estimates of the Galaxy Z Fold 5 parts costing north of $1200.00 with the display accounting for 30-50% of the cost. That's huge when you still need to add markup to a product so you can sell it with some reasonable margin.

Durability and resistance to dust and dirt are also a concern. There have been plenty of reports of the crease on the Galaxy Z Fold and Flip cracking after just a few months of use. Just a quick Google search lists plenty of cracked screens on a Foldable device.

Servicing of foldable phones are also a pain. Getting screen repairs done, can involve shipping a phone into the manufacturer to get repaired and how many people have a second phone they can use until their primary can be repaired. There are very few Samsung stores you can just walk in and get your device replaced. You'll probably have better luck with retailers like Best Buy, but the fact remains you may be without the primary communication device you use for a period of time is a real concern.

There's other things to consider as well such as App optimization, (pain Microsoft experienced with the Duo), Battery life, water resistance, and even bulk.

Do these setbacks mean you shouldn't buy a Foldable phone? Probably not. They are something to be aware of when you consider plopping down upwards of $2000 US Dollars for a device that may have a shorter lifespan than a traditional smartphone at a 1/3 of the cost.

Overall the Foldable market is booming. The challenges with this category will absolutely be addressed in the next few years as it continues to mature. For now though, if you're planning on entering into this market, I recommend doing your research on the history of the device you plan to purchase to see if it's right for you and your business. The "Cool Factor" may not be worth the headache that follows.