My interview with journalist Dana Blankenhorn—Tech reaches a tipping point

2025. AI is going to crash. DNA as a programming language. Tech is reaching a tipping point. The world of 2025 will be completely different, predicts tech journalist Dana Blankenhorn in a conversation with Wibe Wagemans.

Nederlandse versie—Link naar oorspronkelijke column in BusinessWise

English version—Link to original column in BusinessWise

No one would try to reach the top of Mount Everest without a Sherpa. Silicon Valley, the epicenter of technological innovation and of the world's largest companies, is also teeming with Sherpas. Wibe Wagemans, CEO, board member and investor in Silicon Valley is the Silicon Sherpa of BusinessWise. Read his previous expertblogs via this link.

Dana Blankenhorn - the journalist who came up with the term Cloud Tsars- happens to be an avid cyclist. With decades of experience, he's known for his sharp analysis and foresight into technological trends. His insights have earned him a reputation as one of the most influential voices in tech journalism. As we spoke, it quickly became clear: this man has an e-bike and is unstoppable. According to him, small electric motors like those in e-bikes are a game changer. "They change cities more than computers ever did."

Dana Blankenhorn: technology and...cycling

Dana told me how he almost gave up cycling until he borrowed an e-bike and discovered: "This changes everything." Starting in March, he'll be staying in The Netherlands (in a town called Maarssen near Utrecht) for two months, where he plans to rent an e-bike and experience Dutch cycling culture. I told him about our pragmatism: cycling is not a hobby, but a way to get somewhere. Rain, wind, it doesn't matter. Cycling is simply practical. But beware: Dutch cyclists have an anarchistic side. Red lights? Right of way? Only when it suits us. From billions in cash flow to the cloudThe conversation quickly turned to Dana's real passion: technology.

From billions in cash flow to the cloud

Cloud czars are powerful players in the global cloud computing industry, driving technological innovation with their massive infrastructure. Dana has a pecking order: Alphabet (Google Cloud), Amazon (AWS), Meta, Microsoft (Azure), and Apple. Oracle and X (Twitter) want in, as do IBM, AT&T, and GE.

How IBM and GE fell by the wayside

But those companies prioritized debt and dividend payments, which is one reason they never built decent clouds. Another reason is that they missed out on the czars' extremely high margins. Facebook and Google don't pay for content, which makes a big difference to their cash flow. Have you ever looked at one of their quarterly reports? They've been turning a third of their revenue into net income for years. Dana Blankenhorn explains that the cloud czars built their success on a strategy of leveraging massive cash flows from other businesses, such as e-commerce (Amazon) and software licensing (Microsoft), to invest heavily in cloud infrastructure. By strategically deploying these resources, they were able to quickly set up data centers, develop cutting-edge technology, and build market advantage, allowing them to eliminate competitors and retain customers.

The Secret of Silicon Valley -?Together with journalist Eva Schram, Wagemans wrote the book The Secret of Silicon Valley, full of lessons about leadership, strategy, innovation, digitization, and social impact. The book can be ordered via this link (in Dutch) and this link (in English).

Dana pointed out that tech has reached a tipping point today. "The world of 2025 will be very different," he predicted. We discussed five trends that he believes will disrupt everything:

1. AI is going to crash

Dana started with a stern warning. "The hype around AI is huge, but it can't keep growing. LLMs like ChatGPT are not scaling as expected. As soon as demand slows, the market will crash. It will be a crash that will make the dotcom bubble pale in comparison."

2. Proprietary Tech: Everything is going to be closed

Open source? Forget it. "Companies like Meta pretend to be open, but they're not. Llama, for example, is fake open source, because you have to give back every change." Dana predicts that these closed systems will limit innovation and reinforce monopolistic behavior.

3. The Machine Internet Revolution

"The real power of AI is in automating systems," Dana said. He cited examples such as dark factories that are run entirely by networks. "This is a useful application of AI, but it will take years to fully realize its promise."

4. DNA as a programming language

"The future is in biotechnology," Dana enthused. His son is working on a PhD using DNA as a programming language. "We're just at the beginning of this revolution."

5. The revenge of tech workers

The return to the office? "It's a 20-25% reduction in disposable income," Dana said, "because living closer to the office or commuting costs extra time, money, and stress. Tech workers are angry, and they're right." He predicts more conflict between employees and companies.

Final Thought

What struck me most is how Dana, at the age of seventy, still follows the tech world with keen interest. Whether it's bike paths or AI, he combines an analytical eye with a healthy dose of humor. His advice? Keep an open mind, ask questions, and don't forget to jump on your bike every now and then.

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Nederlandse versie—Link naar oorspronkelijke column in BusinessWise

English version—Link to original column in BusinessWise