My Current Trading Strategy & Position – Forty-seventh in Series

Happy New Year To All. Wishing You A Wonderful 2017 With Full Of Happiness, Love, Health, and Peace!

Here is my strategy and position on Jan 14, 2017:

Our Market Trend Estimation & Trading Proposal For Last Week (See my previous blog on Jan7/2017):

“we believe that S&P 500 might drop after slight rise next week. Hence, we might hold our current short positions until the supporting of the Short-Term Uptrend Band centerline confirmed. We might open more short position when new downtrend band formed. We might open long position with stop loss at uptrend band lower limit being broken down if market re-confirmed the uptrend band. However, we do not recommend you stick onto a fixed strategy. We have to surf the wave by following its move. Moreover, wave changes, so do we.”

“The kind of position that we might place the order on is based on the current market trend – long in uptrend or short in downtrend. Position changes only if trend changed. We might not trade based on daily trend but on trend of longer term. However, we need pay specific attention on trend broken event and make sure it is not false broken.”

“It has been forty-five weeks that we witness my PROFIT MACHINE --- my trading strategies and positions. We all know that one of most important skill in trading is that how to stop losses. Now we all witness, through my trading strategies and positions, that the most important skill in stop losses is integrity of insistence and discrepancy:

1.     knowing what condition is the right condition to make necessary changes on trading strategies and positions

2.     knowing why and when the trading strategies and positions should be kept with no changes

3.     knowing when to doubling or halving the position 

4.     instead of just simply setting “stop losses” at 1% loss”

Market Actual Movement (see attached 5 minutes & daily k-line graphs):                

As we expected last week, S&P 500 dropped and broken down the centerline of the Shorter-Term Uptrend Band on Monday, tried to bounce up above the centerline of the Shorter-Term Uptrend Band on Tuesday, broken down the Shorter-Term Uptrend Band on Wednesday, dropped to week’s lowest point of 2254.25 and formed the Short-Term Downtrend Band on Thursday. On Thursday, S&P 500 bounced up from week’s lowest point that is the lower limit line of the Short-Term Downtrend Band and the upper limit line of the Downtrend Band. S&P 500 reached the upper limit line of the Short-Term Downtrend Band on Friday. S&P 500 moved around the upper limit line of the Modified Downtrend Band for whole week. S&P 500 closed whole week at 2274.64 just about 2 point lower than last week’s. (See 5 minutes k-line graphs).

S&P 500 moved slowly down along the upper limit line of the Downtrend Band for the whole week, and closed above it in each day. S&P 500 dropped to the lower limit line of the Short-Term Uptrend Band on Thursday but above it in whole week. S&P 500 formed a cross in weekly k-line graph. (See daily k-line graphs).

Possible Trading Results:                       ---- Another Profit Week

Traders who follow my blog might have:

1.     Closed the short position (opened at 2281 on Jan 6) around 2255 on Thursday when market bounced up from the upper limit line of the Downtrend Band at 5min k-line graph and the lower limit line of the Short-Term Uptrend Band at daily k-line graph and other supporting lines, and ended at 1.1% actual profit.

2.     Opened long position around 2255 on Thursday when market bounced up from the upper limit line of the Downtrend Band at 5min k-line graph and the lower limit line of the Short-Term Uptrend Band at daily k-line graph and other supporting lines, and ended at 0.8% paper profit.

--- Hence, this week is our profit week again in forty-five weeks since I suggested trading position started at my second blog on Mar 5! We have made actual profit in each week of forty-three weeks in forty-five weeks. We have made at least 65.1% profit (63.2% actual profit, 1.1% actual profit, and 0.8% paper profit) in last forty-five weeks！

Christmas is the holiday of faith, hope, and love! It is the time for reminding us to love and give with long-term patience. It would be very appreciated should you continuously give likes and advise any comments, suggestions, or requirements on the series of My Current Trading Strategy & Position so we shall grow together smoother and easier.

(Please note the profit we mentioned here is based on pure basic gain in each week that does not include fee, leverage, and compounding. If traders who follow my blog used leverage as I do, our actual profit is the pure basic gain multiplied by the leverage minus the fee then compounding them week after week. Congratulations to everyone who follow my trading through these blog series!)

Here are current market moving pattern and some trading considerations for making money in today’s market:

Current Market Moving Pattern & Possible Future Movements:

This week is a pulling back week from historic height of 2282.10 made on Friday Jan 6/17. Finally, S&P 500 stopped drop and bounced up from the upper limit line of Downtrend Band or lower limit line of the Short-Term Uptrend Band. S&P 500 is most likely in the uptrend Elliott 5th wave in longer-term and in the uptrend Elliott 5th wave in shorter-term. S&P 500 may make record heights again before correction. However, the rising potential is limited and a correction of pulling back to around 2200 as first target is coming soon.   

Current Trading Consideration:  

We might open (more) short position each time when market drop from resistance level or upper limit line of downtrend band (momentum). We might open (more) long position each time when market rise from supporting level or lower limit line of uptrend band (momentum).  

The kind of position that we might place the order on is based on the current market trend – long in uptrend or short in downtrend. Position changes only if trend changed. We might not trade based on daily trend but on trend of longer term. However, we need pay specific attention on trend broken event and make sure it is not false broken. One of most important skills in position ordering is to notice the current trend-changing pattern and order the position accordingly. The trend-changing pattern has been changing day in and day out.

Furthermore, we might invest around one-fifth of total cash only so we might add more positions when necessary on hold position with no paper loss, and might turn partial of paper profit to actual profit when un-certainty rise and/or make sure to gain actual profit as we did recently on Nov 22 and Dec 7.

It has been forty-seven weeks that we witness my PROFIT MACHINE --- my trading strategies and positions. We all know that one of most important skill in trading is that how to stop losses. Now we all witness, through my trading strategies and positions, that the most important skill in stop losses is integrity of insistence and discrepancy:

1.     knowing what condition is the right condition to make necessary changes on trading strategies and positions

2.     knowing why and when the trading strategies and positions should be kept with no changes

3.     knowing when to doubling or halving the position  

4.     instead of just simply setting “stop losses” at 1% loss

The Conclusion:

Based on new progresses last week, we believe that S&P 500 might rise after slight drop next week. Hence, we might hold our current long positions until the upper limit line of the Modified Downtrend Band broken down confirmed. We might open more long position per above current trading consideration. We might open short position with stop loss at downtrend band upper limit being broken up if market re-confirms the downtrend band. However, we do not recommend you stick onto a fixed strategy. We have to surf the wave by following its move. Moreover, wave changes, so do we.