My Current Trading Strategy & Position – Forty-forth in Series

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to each and every one of you!

Here is my strategy and position on Dec 24, 2016:

Our Market Trend Estimation & Trading Proposal For Last Week (See my previous blog on Dec 17/2016):

“we believe that S&P 500 might rise again next week. Hence, we might hold our current long positions with special cautious until the 2252 Supporting Line broken down confirmed. We might open short position soon with stop loss at downtrend band upper limit being broken up if market resume decline along the Short-Term Downtrend Band or other new Downtrend Band.”

“The kind of position that we might place the order on is based on the current market trend – long in uptrend or short in downtrend. Position changes only if trend changed. We might not trade based on daily trend but on trend of longer term. However, we need pay specific attention on trend broken event and make sure it is not false broken.”

“It has been forty-three weeks that we witness my PROFIT MACHINE --- my trading strategies and positions. We all know that one of most important skill in trading is that how to stop losses. Now we all witness, through my trading strategies and positions, that the most important skill in stop losses is integrity of insistence and discrepancy:

1.     knowing what condition is the right condition to make necessary changes on trading strategies and positions

2.     knowing why and when the trading strategies and positions should be kept with no changes

3.     knowing when to doubling or halving the position

4.     instead of just simply setting “stop losses” at 1% loss”

Market Actual Movement (see attached 5 minutes & daily k-line graphs):                

S&P 500 broken up the Short-Term Downtrend Band on Monday, rose again but formed a new Downtrend Band on Tuesday, continuously dropped along the Downtrend Band on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. S&P 500 tried to break up the Downtrend Band on Both Tuesday and Wednesday but failed. S&P 500 kept above the 2252 Supporting Line and reached the upper limit line of the Downtrend Band again at close on Friday. S&P 500 closed whole week at 2263.79 that is about 5.5 point above last week’s closing point. (See 5 minutes k-line graphs).

S&P 500 rose to upper limit line of the Downtrend Band on Tuesday and Wednesday, and then dropped and broken down the Uptrend Band on Thursday. Finally, S&P 500 made a slight weekly gain. (See daily k-line graphs).

Possible Trading Results:                       ---- Another Profit Week

Traders who follow my blog might have:

1.     Still hold the long position (opened at 2253 on Dec 14) since market kept above the 2252 Supporting Line, and ended at 0.4% paper profit.

--- Hence, this week is our profit week again in forty-two weeks since I suggested trading position started at my second blog on Mar 5! We have made at least 62.3% profit (58.3% actual profit, 0.2% actual profit, 3.4% actual profit, and 0.4% paper profit) in last forty-two weeks！

Christmas is the holiday of faith, hope, and love! It is the time for reminding us to love and give with long-term patience. It would be very appreciated should you continuously give likes and advise any comments, suggestions, or requirements on the series of My Current Trading Strategy & Position so we shall grow together smoother and easier.

(Please note the profit we mentioned here is based on pure basic gain in each week that does not include fee, leverage, and compounding. If traders who follow my blog used leverage as I do, our actual profit is the pure basic gain multiplied by the leverage minus the fee then compounding them week after week. Congratulations to everyone who follow my trading through these blog series!)

Here are current market moving pattern and some trading considerations for making money in today’s market:

Current Market Moving Pattern & Possible Future Movements:

This week is another significant week with second “cross star” on weekly k-line meaning S&P 500 is forming the top. The toping takes long time. S&P 500 is most likely in the uptrend Elliott 5th wave in longer-term and in the uptrend Elliott 4th wave in shorter-term. We believe S&P 500 may make couple more record heights before correction. However, the rising potential is limited and a correction of pulling back to around 2200 as first target is coming after toping finished.   

Current Trading Consideration:  

We might open (more) short position each time when market drop from resistance level or upper limit line of downtrend band (momentum). We might open (more) long position each time when market rise from supporting level or lower limit line of uptrend band (momentum).  

The kind of position that we might place the order on is based on the current market trend – long in uptrend or short in downtrend. Position changes only if trend changed. We might not trade based on daily trend but on trend of longer term. However, we need pay specific attention on trend broken event and make sure it is not false broken.

Furthermore, we might invest around one-fifth of total cash only so we might add more positions when necessary on hold position with no paper loss, and might turn partial of paper profit to actual profit when un-certainty rise and/or make sure to gain actual profit as we did recently on Nov 22 and Dec 7.

It has been forty-four weeks that we witness my PROFIT MACHINE --- my trading strategies and positions. We all know that one of most important skill in trading is that how to stop losses. Now we all witness, through my trading strategies and positions, that the most important skill in stop losses is integrity of insistence and discrepancy:

1.     knowing what condition is the right condition to make necessary changes on trading strategies and positions

2.     knowing why and when the trading strategies and positions should be kept with no changes

3.     knowing when to doubling or halving the position  

4.     instead of just simply setting “stop losses” at 1% loss

The Conclusion:

Based on new progresses last week, we believe that S&P 500 might rise again next week. Hence, we might hold our current long positions with special cautious until the 2252 Supporting Line broken down confirmed. We might open short position soon with stop loss at downtrend band upper limit being broken up if market resume decline along the Short-Term Downtrend Band or other new Downtrend Band. However, we do not recommend you stick onto a fixed strategy. We have to surf the wave by following its move. Moreover, wave changes, so do we.