My Current Trading Strategy & Position – Fifty in Series
Happy Lunar New Year!
Wishing You A Happy New Year Filled With Love and Peace! May Your Home Filled With Joy and Prosperity!
Here is my strategy and position on Feb 4, 2017:
Our Market Trend Estimation & Trading Proposal For Last Week (See my previous blog on Jan 28/2017):
“we believe that S&P 500 might rise after drop next week. Hence, we might hold our current long positions until the centerline of the Near-Term Uptrend Band in 5 minutes k-line graph broken down confirmed. We might open more long position per above current trading consideration. We might open short position with stop loss at downtrend band upper limit being broken up confirmed if market re-confirms the downtrend band. However, we do not recommend you stick onto a fixed strategy. We have to surf the wave by following its move. Moreover, wave changes, so do we.”
“The kind of position that we might place the order on is based on the current market trend – long in uptrend or short in downtrend. Position changes only if trend changed. We might not trade based on daily trend but on trend of longer term. However, we need pay specific attention on trend broken event and make sure it is not false broken. One of most important skills in position ordering is to notice the current trend-changing pattern and order the position accordingly. The trend-changing pattern has been changing day in and day out.”
“It has been forty-nine weeks that we witness my PROFIT MACHINE --- my trading strategies and positions. We all know that one of most important skill in trading is that how to stop losses. Now we all witness, through my trading strategies and positions, that the most important skill in stop losses is integrity of insistence and discrepancy:
1. knowing what condition is the right condition to make necessary changes on trading strategies and positions
2. knowing why and when the trading strategies and positions should be kept with no changes
3. knowing when to doubling or halving the position
4. instead of just simply setting “stop losses” at 1% loss”
Market Actual Movement (see attached 5 minutes & daily k-line graphs):
S&P 500 jump dropped on Monday and jump rose on Friday. At beginning of the week, S&P 500 followed last week’s decline, jump dropped to the upper limit line of the Short-Term Downtrend Band, then rose up. S&P 500 dropped again to the week’s lowest point of 2267.21, and then rose up from the upper limit line of the Short-Term Downtrend Band on Tuesday. S&P 500 jump rose to upper limit line of the Downtrend Band that formed from last week, and then dropped on Wednesday, up and down with little changes on Thursday. At end of the week, S&P 500 jump-started with big rose, broken up the upper limit line of the Downtrend Band, continuous rose to the upper limit line of the Uptrend Band. S&P 500 confirmed the Downtrend Band on Wednesday, and confirmed the Uptrend Band on Thursday. S&P 500 closed whole week at 2297.42 that is about 3 point higher than last week’s closing point. (See 5 minutes k-line graphs).
S&P 500 continuously moved inside the Recent Uptrend Band in whole week, dropped to and moved inside the lower half of the Recent Uptrend Band from Monday and Thursday, and moved to the upper half of the Recent Uptrend Band on Friday. (See daily k-line graphs).
Possible Trading Results: ---- Another Profit Week
Traders who follow my blog might have:
1. Closed the long position (opened at 2275 on Jan 24) on Monday morning around 2283 when market jump-dropped and broken down the centerline of the Near-Term Uptrend Band, and ended at 0.3% actual profit.
2. Opened long position around 2270 on Tuesday afternoon when market rose up from the upper limit line of the Short-Term Downtrend Band second time from below the limit line, and closed it around 2289 on Wednesday morning when market jump-started and rose to the upper limit line of the Downtrend Band, ended at 0.8% actual profit.
3. Opened new long position around 2276 on Thursday afternoon when market rose up second time from the lower limit line of the Uptrend Band, and ended at 0.9% paper profit.
--- Hence, this week is our profit week again in forty-eight weeks since I suggested trading position started at my second blog on Mar 5, 2016! We have made actual profit in each week of forty-six weeks in forty-eight weeks. We have made at least 67.2% profit (65.2% actual profit, 0.3% actual profit, 0.8% actual profit, and 0.9% paper profit) in last forty-eight weeks！
The year of Rooster is the year with full of opportunity and fortune, happiness and peace. Wishing You A Happy New Year Filled With Love and Peace! May Your Home Filled With Joy and Prosperity! Wish You All Have Lots Of Lucks!
(Please note the profit we mentioned here is based on pure basic gain in each week that does not include fee, leverage, and compounding. If traders who follow my blog used leverage as I do, our actual profit is the pure basic gain multiplied by the leverage minus the fee then compounding them week after week. Congratulations to everyone who follow my trading through these blog series!)
?Here are current market moving pattern and some trading considerations for making money in today’s market:
Current Market Moving Pattern & Possible Future Movements:
S&P 500 followed last week’s up trend pattern and continuously moved along the upper limit line of the Longer-Term Uptrend Band. In longer-term, S&P 500 not only could be in the uptrend Elliott 5th wave meaning the rising movement still have long time to last, but also could be in uptrend Elliott 3rd wave meaning the pulling back for adjusting is near. In short-term, S&P 500, same as in longer-term, not only could be in the uptrend Elliott 5th wave, but also could be in uptrend Elliott 3rd wave.
Current Trading Consideration:
We might open (more) short position each time when market drop from resistance level or upper limit line of downtrend band (momentum). We might open (more) long position each time when market rise from supporting level or lower limit line of uptrend band (momentum).
The kind of position that we might place the order on is based on the current market trend – long in uptrend or short in downtrend. Position changes only if trend changed. We might not trade based on daily trend but on trend of longer term. However, we need pay specific attention on trend broken event and make sure it is not false broken. One of most important skills in position ordering is to notice the current trend-changing pattern and order the position accordingly. The trend-changing pattern has been changing day in and day out.
Furthermore, we might invest around one-fifth of total cash only so we might add more positions when necessary on hold position with no paper loss, and might turn partial of paper profit to actual profit when un-certainty rise and/or make sure to gain actual profit as we did recently on Nov 22 and Dec 7.
It has been fifty weeks that we witness my PROFIT MACHINE --- my trading strategies and positions. We all know that one of most important skill in trading is that how to stop losses. Now we all witness, through my trading strategies and positions, that the most important skill in stop losses is integrity of insistence and discrepancy:
1. knowing what condition is the right condition to make necessary changes on trading strategies and positions
2. knowing why and when the trading strategies and positions should be kept with no changes
3. knowing when to doubling or halving the position
4. instead of just simply setting “stop losses” at 1% loss
Only after stop loss finalized, then we can place the order only when the possible profit is much higher than the finalized stop loss.
The Conclusion:
Based on new progresses last week, we believe that S&P 500 might continuously rise along with slight up-and-downs next week. Hence, we might hold our current long positions until the centerline of the Uptrend Band in 5 minutes k-line graph broken down confirmed. We might open more long position per above current trading consideration. We might open short position with stop loss at downtrend band upper limit being broken up confirmed if market re-confirms the downtrend band. However, we do not recommend you stick onto a fixed strategy. We have to surf the wave by following its move. Moreover, wave changes, so do we.