My Current Trading Strategy & Position – Fifty-Four in Series
Here is my strategy and position on Mar 4, 2017:
Our Market Trend Estimation & Trading Proposal For Last Week (See my previous blog on Feb 25/2017):
“we believe that S&P 500 might continuously rise next week. Hence, we might hold our current long positions until the lower limit line of the flat moving band in 5 minutes k-line graph broken down confirmed. We might open more long position per above current trading consideration. We might open short position with stop loss at downtrend band upper limit being broken up confirmed if market re-confirms the downtrend band. However, we do not recommend you stick onto a fixed strategy. We have to surf the wave by following its move. Moreover, wave changes, so do we.”
“It has been fifty-three weeks that we witness my PROFIT MACHINE --- my trading strategies and positions. We all know that one of most important skill in trading is that how to stop losses. Now we all witness, through my trading strategies and positions, that the most important skill in stop losses is integrity of insistence and discrepancy:
1. knowing what condition is the right condition to make necessary changes on trading strategies and positions
2. knowing why and when the trading strategies and positions should be kept with no changes
3. knowing when to doubling or halving the position
4. instead of just simply setting “stop losses” at 1% loss
Only after stop loss finalized, then we can place the order only if the possible profit is much higher than the finalized stop loss.”
Market Actual Movement (see attached 5 minutes & daily k-line graphs):
S&P 500 rose on Monday, dropped to the centerline of the Month-Term Uptrend Band on Tuesday, jump-started and rose on Wednesday, dropped on Thursday, dropped first then rose on Friday, the jump up gap left on Wednesday has not been covered up. S&P 500 made new historic height on both Monday and Wednesday，and the latest new historic height is 2400.98 made on Wednesday. S&P 500 break up the upper limit line of the Month-Term Uptrend Band on Wednesday, and then dropped back into the Band on Thursday. S&P 500 closed whole week at 2383.12. (See 5 minutes k-line graphs).
S&P 500 moved up in the week though failed keeping inside the Revised New Uptrend Band. This is a week of huge rise then big drop. S&P 500 is still moving towards the upper limit line of the Year-Term Uptrend Band. (See daily k-line graphs).
Possible Trading Results: ---- Another Profit Week
Traders who follow my blog might have:
1. Still hold the long positions (opened one at 2286 on Feb 8) since S&P 500 still in upper half of the Month-Term Uptrend Band in 5 minutes k-line graph, and ended at 4.2% paper profit.
2. Open new long position around 2378 on Friday when market stabled and rose from un-covered jump up gap left on Wednesday, and ended at 0.2% paper profit.
--- Hence, this week is our profit week again in fifty-two weeks one full year since I suggested trading position started at my second blog on Mar 5, 2016! We have made actual profit in each week of forty-nine weeks in fifty-two weeks. We have made at least 74.4% profit (70.0% actual profit, 4.2% paper profit, and 0.2% paper profit) in last fifty-two weeks or one full year！
(Please note the profit we mentioned here is based on pure basic gain in each week that does not include fee, leverage, and compounding.)
Here are current market moving pattern and some trading considerations for making money in today’s market:
Current Market Moving Pattern & Possible Future Movements:
S&P 500 followed last week’s up trend pattern and kept rising towards the upper limit line of the Year-Term Uptrend Band. In longer-term, S&P 500 not only could be in the uptrend Elliott 5th wave meaning the rising movement still have long time to go, but also could be in uptrend Elliott 3rd wave meaning the pulling back for adjusting as of 4th wave is near. In short-term, S&P 500, same as in longer-term, not only could be in the uptrend Elliott 5th wave, but also could be in uptrend Elliott 3rd wave. S&P 500 may move close to upper limit line of the Year-Term Uptrend Band soon.
Current Trading Consideration:
We might open (more) short position each time when market drop from resistance level or upper limit line of downtrend band (momentum). We might open (more) long position each time when market rise from supporting level or lower limit line of uptrend band (momentum). The pre-determined trading strategy shall be followed whenever places the order.
The kind of position that we might place the order on is based on the current market trend – long in uptrend or short in downtrend. Position changes only if trend changed. We might not trade based on daily trend but on trend of longer term. However, we need pay specific attention on trend broken event and make sure it is not false broken. One of most important skills in position ordering is to notice the current trend-changing pattern and order the position accordingly. The trend-changing pattern has been changing day in and day out.
Furthermore, we might invest around one-fifth of total cash only so we might add more positions when necessary on hold position with no paper loss, and might turn partial of paper profit to actual profit when un-certainty rise and/or make sure to gain actual profit as we did recently on Nov 22 and Dec 7.
It has been fifty-four weeks that we witness my PROFIT MACHINE --- my trading strategies and positions. We all know that one of most important skill in trading is that how to stop losses. Now we all witness, through my trading strategies and positions, that the most important skill in stop losses is integrity of insistence and discrepancy:
1. knowing what condition is the right condition to make necessary changes on trading strategies and positions
2. knowing why and when the trading strategies and positions should be kept with no changes
3. knowing when to doubling or halving the position
4. instead of just simply setting “stop losses” at 1% loss
Only after stop loss finalized, then we can place the order only if the possible profit is much higher than the finalized stop loss.
?The Conclusion:
Based on new progresses last week, we believe that S&P 500 might continuously rise next week with increased volatility. Hence, we might hold our current long positions until the centerline of the Month-Term Uptrend Band in 5 minutes k-line graph broken down confirmed. We might open more long position per above current trading consideration. We might open short position with stop loss at downtrend band upper limit being broken up confirmed if market re-confirms the downtrend band. However, we do not recommend you stick onto a fixed strategy. We have to surf the wave by following its move. Moreover, wave changes, so do we.
Note: We will take a break for a couple of weeks in celebrating our one-year achievements and S&P 500 Index 60 birthday!